Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Wide Receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 305 324 19 17 114 1315 10 2. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 304 314 10 16 124 1345 7 3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 287 360 73 17 104 1345 7 4. Puka Nacua , LAR 285 375 90 16 111 1273 7 5. Chris Olave , NO 274 268 -6 16 100 1271 8 6. Justin Jefferson , MIN 248 202 -47 17 87 1116 8 7. George Pickens , DAL 248 292 44 17 82 1109 9 8. Davante Adams , LAR 237 223 -14 14 61 950 13 9. Wan'Dale Robinson , NYG 233 218 -15 16 96 1065 5 10. Courtland Sutton , DEN 226 220 -6 17 71 1044 8 11. Emeka Egbuka , TB 225 196 -29 17 74 1099 7 12. Michael Wilson , ARI 216 221 4 17 72 1038 7 13. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 215 211 -4 17 70 1041 7 14. Nico Collins , HOU 212 226 14 15 65 1019 7 15. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 210 201 -9 14 70 1005 7 16. Zay Flowers , BAL 207 243 36 17 84 946 4 17. A.J. Brown , PHI 202 220 18 15 70 1010 5 18. Keenan Allen , LAC 197 183 -14 17 78 867 6 19. Troy Franklin , DEN 197 177 -20 17 63 894 7 20. Jakobi Meyers , JAC 112 108 -4 9 38 483 3 20. Jakobi Meyers , LV 80 68 -12 7 33 357 2 21. Drake London , ATL 191 202 11 12 66 878 6 22. DeVonta Smith , PHI 189 202 12 17 70 921 5 23. Michael Pittman Jr. , IND 188 202 14 17 77 833 5 24. Ladd McConkey , LAC 183 181 -3 16 65 844 6 25. Jameson Williams , DET 182 220 38 17 64 911 4 26. Deebo Samuel Sr. , WAS 181 188 7 16 70 691 4 27. DK Metcalf , PIT 176 187 11 15 61 770 6 28. Parker Washington , JAC 175 185 10 16 53 839 5 29. Jaylen Waddle , MIA 175 194 19 16 62 846 4 30. Tee Higgins , CIN 173 212 38 15 50 845 6 31. Rome Odunze , CHI 172 146 -26 12 56 811 6 32. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 171 121 -50 17 59 885 4 33. Stefon Diggs , NE 171 210 39 17 70 781 4 34. DJ Moore , CHI 168 170 2 17 53 709 5 35. Tre Tucker , LV 166 162 -4 17 61 727 4 36. Jauan Jennings , SF 165 173 8 15 54 722 7 37. Rashid Shaheed , NO 113 104 -9 9 42 538 3 37. Rashid Shaheed , SEA 51 52 2 9 16 227 1 38. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 163 139 -24 14 54 812 4 39. Romeo Doubs , GB 161 165 4 16 49 746 6 40. Alec Pierce , IND 157 183 26 15 39 862 5 41. Jordan Addison , MIN 155 135 -20 14 48 691 6 42. Quentin Johnston , LAC 151 171 20 14 46 703 6 43. Khalil Shakir , BUF 149 166 17 16 73 616 3 44. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 148 117 -32 16 52 738 4 45. Rashee Rice , KC 146 150 4 8 57 508 5 46. Chimere Dike , TEN 143 126 -17 17 51 551 4 47. Josh Downs , IND 140 136 -3 16 59 620 3 48. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 136 128 -8 12 41 623 5 49. Xavier Worthy , KC 133 110 -23 14 48 613 3 50. Hollywood Brown , KC 131 138 6 16 48 598 4 51. Darnell Mooney , ATL 130 82 -47 15 43 667 3 52. Adonai Mitchell , IND 26 22 -4 8 10 146 0 52. Adonai Mitchell , NYJ 103 66 -37 8 32 500 3 53. Malik Washington , MIA 122 117 -6 17 47 423 3 54. Jayden Higgins , HOU 121 130 9 17 41 566 4 55. Cooper Kupp , SEA 114 116 3 16 44 503 3 56. Xavier Legette , CAR 114 89 -24 15 39 516 4 57. Darius Slayton , NYG 113 99 -14 14 39 551 3 58. Mack Hollins , NE 112 113 1 15 39 549 3 59. Olamide Zaccheaus , CHI 109 85 -24 16 47 447 2 60. Terry McLaurin , WAS 107 114 7 10 34 540 3 61. Christian Watson , GB 105 132 27 10 29 527 4 62. Mike Evans , TB 105 85 -20 8 30 528 4 63. Jalen Nailor , MIN 104 101 -4 17 29 443 5 64. Keon Coleman , BUF 104 102 -1 13 35 470 4 65. Luther Burden III , CHI 102 128 25 15 47 447 1 66. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 101 98 -3 17 38 433 3 67. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 101 90 -11 17 36 478 3 68. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 99 114 15 16 36 422 3 69. Calvin Austin III , PIT 96 86 -10 14 35 450 3 70. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 92 93 1 15 36 376 1 71. Ricky Pearsall , SF 92 89 -3 9 30 478 2 72. Kayshon Boutte , NE 91 124 33 14 24 442 4 73. Sterling Shepard , TB 91 82 -9 13 36 389 2 74. Isaiah Bond , CLE 89 55 -34 16 25 440 3 75. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 88 100 11 7 37 435 1 76. Tez Johnson , TB 88 92 5 16 30 368 2 77. Tyquan Thornton , KC 86 81 -6 14 17 485 3 78. Kendrick Bourne , SF 86 92 7 16 36 433 1 79. Chris Godwin , TB 84 83 -1 9 34 363 2 80. Van Jefferson , TEN 84 70 -14 16 31 441 2 81. Christian Kirk , HOU 84 58 -26 13 33 366 2 82. DeMario Douglas , NE 83 96 13 17 29 343 2 83. Matthew Golden , GB 82 70 -12 14 29 378 1 84. Tyler Lockett , LV 52 50 -2 10 23 235 1 84. Tyler Lockett , TEN 29 23 -6 7 14 151 0 85. Pat Bryant , DEN 80 75 -6 15 33 383 2 86. Dyami Brown , JAC 79 50 -29 14 21 335 3 87. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 79 85 6 15 26 287 2 88. JuJu Smith-Schuster , KC 78 74 -5 17 34 317 2 89. Dontayvion Wicks , GB 76 76 -1 14 27 379 2 90. Travis Hunter , JAC 75 64 -11 7 30 319 2 91. John Metchie III , NYJ 68 66 -2 9 31 284 1 91. John Metchie III , PHI 6 6 0 7 4 19 0 92. Tre Harris , LAC 69 69 0 17 27 322 1 93. Jalen Coker , CAR 68 90 22 11 27 331 1 94. Devaughn Vele , NO 67 66 -1 13 22 317 2 95. Rashod Bateman , BAL 67 55 -12 13 23 318 2 96. Jaylin Noel , HOU 67 68 1 17 24 267 2 97. Malik Nabers , NYG 67 57 -10 4 19 314 3 98. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 65 76 11 17 14 243 4 99. Cedric Tillman , CLE 65 60 -5 13 22 322 2 100. Greg Dortch , ARI 64 75 11 12 26 210 1 101. DeAndre Hopkins , BAL 63 67 4 17 20 323 2 102. Joshua Palmer , BUF 62 52 -10 12 23 307 2 103. Jahan Dotson , PHI 61 50 -11 17 20 323 2 104. Jaylin Lane , WAS 61 49 -12 15 19 303 2 105. Demarcus Robinson , SF 61 58 -3 14 20 308 2 106. David Sills V , ATL 61 49 -12 17 22 291 2 107. Brandin Cooks , BUF 20 16 -4 5 5 127 0 107. Brandin Cooks , NO 40 36 -4 10 17 194 1 108. Jalen Tolbert , DAL 59 46 -13 13 18 273 2 109. Calvin Ridley , TEN 57 47 -10 7 21 314 1 110. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 56 59 3 15 29 229 0 111. Adam Thielen , MIN 28 17 -11 11 12 136 0 111. Adam Thielen , PIT 25 23 -3 5 11 134 0 112. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , PIT 41 24 -17 5 12 169 2 112. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , SF 11 8 -3 5 4 67 0 113. Tory Horton , SEA 51 65 14 8 13 211 3 114. Tyreek Hill , MIA 49 54 4 4 19 246 1 115. Tim Patrick , JAC 48 52 4 16 14 188 2 116. Kalif Raymond , DET 48 67 19 15 23 212 0 117. Mitchell Tinsley , CIN 47 32 -15 17 11 214 2 118. Dont'e Thornton Jr. , LV 46 24 -23 15 13 290 1 119. Hunter Renfrow , CAR 46 36 -10 6 17 181 2 120. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , DEN 25 25 0 7 10 107 1 120. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , NYG 19 10 -10 3 5 92 1 121. Xavier Smith , LAR 44 48 4 16 17 238 1 122. Jack Bech , LV 43 42 0 16 18 208 1 123. Chris Moore , WAS 42 39 -3 14 12 198 2 124. Jordan Whittington , LAR 41 36 -5 17 19 165 0 125. Treylon Burks , WAS 40 29 -11 8 11 176 2 126. Jayden Reed , GB 39 49 10 7 17 158 1 127. Kyle Williams , NE 38 49 11 17 11 205 1 128. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 38 25 -13 17 13 193 1 129. Tyrell Shavers , BUF 38 46 8 17 15 199 0 130. Isaiah Hodgins , NYG 37 28 -9 7 10 151 2 131. Gabe Davis , BUF 36 31 -6 6 11 138 2 132. Roman Wilson , PIT 36 39 3 13 14 174 1 133. Allen Lazard , NYJ 36 23 -13 10 9 136 2 134. Kevin Austin Jr. , NO 35 33 -2 8 16 162 1 135. Josh Reynolds , NYJ 34 23 -10 5 11 186 1 136. Malachi Corley , CLE 32 32 -1 13 12 76 0 137. Zay Jones , ARI 31 30 -1 8 10 164 1 138. Tyler Johnson , NYJ 31 38 7 12 12 153 1 139. Elijah Moore , BUF 31 29 -2 9 10 134 0 140. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 31 51 21 9 9 147 1 141. Jimmy Horn Jr. , CAR 30 29 -1 13 11 103 1 142. Arian Smith , NYJ 30 14 -16 16 9 141 1 143. Mason Tipton , NO 29 20 -9 14 11 120 0 144. Jalin Hyatt , NYG 29 9 -20 8 8 159 1 145. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , MIA 29 20 -9 15 14 132 0 146. Jalen McMillan , TB 27 30 3 4 11 124 0 147. Tutu Atwell , LAR 26 31 5 10 7 156 1 148. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 26 30 4 16 12 136 0 149. Gunner Olszewski , NYG 26 34 8 16 8 99 1 150. Savion Williams , GB 25 26 0 12 8 60 0 151. Ray-Ray McCloud III , ATL 23 12 -10 4 9 101 0 151. Ray-Ray McCloud III , NYG 2 2 -1 2 1 16 0 152. Xavier Weaver , ARI 25 14 -11 10 7 123 1 153. Gage Larvadain , CLE 23 12 -11 13 9 109 0 154. Casey Washington , ATL 23 15 -7 7 7 139 0 155. Jahdae Walker , CHI 23 27 4 9 6 85 1 156. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 21 16 -5 10 7 106 1 157. Scotty Miller , PIT 21 15 -6 13 9 83 1 158. Ashton Dulin , IND 21 20 -1 12 6 94 0 159. Jamari Thrash , CLE 20 21 0 9 10 102 0 160. Devontez Walker , BAL 20 38 18 12 4 91 1 161. Dylan Drummond , ATL 20 11 -8 9 7 81 1 162. James Proche , TEN 19 13 -6 9 6 109 0 163. Dante Pettis , NO 18 20 2 8 8 87 0 164. Theo Wease Jr. , MIA 18 26 8 3 6 96 0 165. Darius Cooper , PHI 18 18 1 13 7 84 0 166. Curtis Samuel , BUF 17 21 4 6 6 81 0 167. Tylan Wallace , BAL 17 15 -2 14 4 65 1 168. Noah Brown , WAS 17 13 -4 4 5 86 1 169. Cedrick Wilson , MIA 17 9 -7 10 5 69 1 170. Austin Trammell , JAC 16 8 -8 6 5 86 0 171. KhaDarel Hodge , ATL 16 6 -10 12 5 85 0 172. Skyy Moore , SF 14 15 0 17 5 73 0 173. Robbie Chosen , WAS 14 10 -4 3 5 75 0
