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          Olg's Notebook: Dante Exum making a Boomers starting case

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          Ian Clark hits three triples in OT to steal the game for United (0:28)

          Ian Clark connects on three bombs from behind the arc and scores 13 of Melbourne's 17 points in overtime (0:28)

          • Olgun Uluc, ESPN Basketball Insider
          Dec 27, 2023, 08:30 PM

          Every week, ESPN's Olgun Uluc runs through what's catching his eye across the NBL, and takes you inside the conversations trickling around the Australian basketball ecosystem. This week, he looks at Danté Exum's incredible form and what it means for the Aussie Boomers, Duop Reath shining in Portland, and why a true test is coming for the best team in the NBL.

          Danté Exum: Boomers starter?

          For those who are unaware, Danté Exum is playing, probably, the best basketball of his career.

          The Australian point guard signed with the Dallas Mavericks this offseason as a down-the-bench role player but, with injuries to multiple guys -- including Kyrie Irving -- he's been thrust into the starting lineup, and is making the most of the extended minutes being afforded to him.

          Over 10 games in December, Exum is averaging 15.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game, while shooting a wildly impressive 62.5 percent from the field and 52.8 percent from beyond the three-point line. The shooting has been particularly noticeable; he's averaging 3.6 three-point attempts a game in a 10-game span that was highlighted by a 26-point explosion against the Los Angeles Lakers. He's looking like an elite complementary player next to Luka Dončić -- perhaps the most important trait a player on these Mavericks could have -- while still showing impressive signs as a secondary ball carrier.

          The Mavericks' head coach, Jason Kidd, recently said Exum would stay in the starting lineup even when the team's healthy bodies return; a sign of the two-way impact the Victorian has had thus far this season.

          Now, there are a few ways to approach this recent resurgence Exum is in the midst of.

          The first is with joy. Exum had a ton of potential from the moment he was drafted, but his NBA career was seemingly derailed by multiple injuries a few years ago. He went and signed in Europe, and there was a real fear that he'd never be given the opportunity to reach that ceiling. So, watching him be given significant minutes with the Mavericks -- and performing extremely well in those circumstances -- feels like a justice, of sorts, is being served.

          Then, there's thinking about what it could mean for his NBA career. After spending two seasons outside the league, Exum signed a two-year, $6.15 million deal with the Mavericks this offseason. The second year of that deal is non-guaranteed; this was clearly a trial to see what Exum's game looked like in the league after a short time away from it. Right now, Exum has clearly outplayed the value of that deal -- he's projecting to be a starter on a good Mavericks team for the remainder of the season -- so, if he remains healthy and effective, what does his next contract look like? At this point, Exum is clearly worthy of a long-term, relatively substantial deal in the NBA, so how that may come about will be something to track going forward.

          Finally, we have the question of how this impacts the Australian Boomers. That's what we'll focus on here.

          There were many questions after the Boomers failed to reach the knockout stages of the 2023 FIBA World Cup. The attention quickly shifted toward the 2024 Paris Olympics, and what the Australian national team would need to change in order to be competitive.

          In a post-tournament dissection podcast with my ESPN colleague, Kane Pitman, I suggested the idea of bringing a very similar team to Paris, but shifting roles. That included things like moving Patty Mills to the bench, Josh Green becoming more involved offensively, Joe Ingles' usage brought down and, yes, sliding Exum into the starting lineup.

          The evidence was already revealing itself: Exum had shown to be a high level and versatile defender, and the impressive shooting splits he showed during his time in Europe appeared to be carrying over to the World Cup. It wasn't high volume stuff, but the signs were there.

          With the way Exum is playing, it seems like we're trending even further in the direction of him entering Australia's starting lineup. Josh Giddey's production and efficiency is down this NBA season for a number of reasons, but he's still the head of the Boomers' snake. Green was up and down in his fourth season for the Mavericks before his elbow injury, but he'd also still project to remain a starter. Exum then slots in seamlessly next to them, playing perhaps a slightly elevated role to the one he plays in Dallas.

          There are some comparisons between playing alongside Dončić and doing so next to Giddey. Existing off the ball is something Exum is showing he can do in an elite way; he's currently shooting 43.8 percent on catch-and-shoot threes, making defences pay for the attention they throw toward Dončić. We've only seen moments here and there of Exum as a ball carrier, because of the Mavericks' Dončić-heavy style of play, but the off-the-dribble skillset and quickness that got him drafted is still part of his game when called upon.

          Exum as a spot-up guy alongside Giddey, while being a secondary ball handler for the Boomers' opening group, works from a balance perspective offensively. It would probably make just as much of an impact on the defensive end, too, where Brian Goorjian wants to utilise a switch-heavy style of play. Exum excels as a point of attack defender, and has the size to switch and guard multiple positions.

          Goorjian has mentioned ad nauseam that, heading into these Olympics, he's going to have to have some tough conversations with players. Based on the way Exum is performing, and also the volume of that play -- and the fact that Mills has only played 47 total minutes this NBA season -- it's looking more and more likely that may be the first tough conversation Goorjian will have to address.

          There'll be a Duop Reath conversation to be had, too

          Duop Reath emerging as, probably, one of Australia's top-three producers in the NBA this season has been unbelievably surprising, but extraordinarily pleasant.

          An injury to Robert Williams III and the inconsistent play from Deandre Ayton opened the door for Reath -- who signed with the Portland Trail Blazers as a two-way player -- to play extended minutes. Like Exum, he's making the most of that opportunity.

          The 6'9 big-man is averaging 7.7 points and 2.8 rebounds a game, while shooting 34.7 percent from downtown. So much of sticking in the NBA is getting an opportunity, then leaning into an elite skill and being proficient at it. For Reath, it's the jumper; more than half of his attempts are from beyond the three-point line, where he's shown to be reliable.

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          Duop Reath flirts with a 25-point double-double

          Duop Reath plays a key role in the Blazers win over the Kings as he puts up 25 points and nine boards.

          Reath, 27, has scored in double figures in seven of the Trail Blazers' 10 games over December, capped off by a career-high 25 points and nine rebounds in a win over the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday.

          The Sudanese-Australian was the Boomers' starting centre during the World Cup due to Jock Landale missing the tournament with an ankle injury. While he was in opening lineups by necessity in Okinawa, we're approaching the conversation of whether he's worthy of starting at the five-spot based on merit. Reath's impressive form is coming while Landale has been struggling to find consistent minutes with the Houston Rockets, averaging just 1.7 points and 1.9 rebounds per game, in just 8.9 minutes a contest.

          Now, the context matters across the board here. There are factors out of everyone's control that's leading to these set of circumstances, so the conversation will undoubtedly be more nuanced than just comparing numbers and picking the bigger ones. There'll be an understanding of a number of things -- which skillset fits best, who performs in camp, and judging effectiveness over raw production, among other factors -- but Goorjian has preached how much it matters for his Boomers to get meaningful repetitions in ahead of the Olympics, and Reath is doing just that.

          Whatever conversations need to be had ahead of Paris 2024, it's a positive sign for the Boomers that the state of the discourse is because talent is revealing itself, as opposed to the opposite.

          Melbourne United has separated themselves from the pack... but the real test is coming

          As much as it pains many fans of other NBL teams to admit it because it's uncool to fawn over a big market team, United has -- obviously and demonstrably -- been the most dominant team of the 2023-24 season.

          Their league-leading 14-3 record shows it, and the numbers back it up: they have both the No. 1 offence (119.2 points per 100 possessions) and No. 1 defence (allowing 107.6 points per 100 possessions), according to RealGM, and by sizeable and growing margins, too.

          United has high-level top-end talent, they're deep, they defend, they're well-coached, and the results are showing all of that.

          ...you know there's a 'but' coming.

          United absolutely deserves all the credit in the world for the outcomes they've achieved up to this point. This isn't taking away from what they've done, and nor is it saying that they're entering some make or break period. It is, however, important to contextualise their path so far.

          Seven of United's last nine games have been at home, and those two 'road' games were Throwdowns vs. the South East Melbourne Phoenix, which are played in John Cain Arena. So, in effect, United has played in their home arena during that entire stretch. Their last true road game was against the Tasmania JackJumpers on, get ready for it, October 27. That's more than two months. United has also had the easiest strength of schedule thus far, according to SpatialJam.

          Now, here's the thing. The nature of the schedule isn't some exercise in favouritism; John Cain Arena is used during the Australian Open so United can't be in there for much of January. That means the team needs to get in a ton of home games to start the season. United goes through a version of this every season and it is what it is; granted, they didn't have close to the same success at this point during the 2022-23 campaign, which is why the credit they've earned it well deserved.

          So what's the upshot of it all?

          The sign of a great team is winning the games you're supposed to win. United's pathway has been easier, sure, but they've achieved the outcomes expected of them -- not every team has been able to do that, even in favourable circumstances -- and done it in a dominant way. Plus, they've had bouts of adversity with injury, and overcome them, so it hasn't all been rainbows and unicorns.

          What's worth pointing out here, then, is the opportunity in front of United. Extended road trips can be a difficult thing, but Dean Vickerman's team enters their stretch of games away from home with a considerable buffer on the ladder, and having made a ton of progress toward reaching their ceiling as a group. They're the favourite going into every game they play, and they're the only team in the league that can say that.

          United is staring in the face of seven straight road games over the course of January, and the outcome of it could very well define their expectations going into the playoffs: are they the out-and-out favourites we see them as now, or just the best of a bunch of contenders?

          "I've always felt this time of year -- this Christmas, New Years time of year -- is where the disciplined teams can manage through this family time really well, and come out the other side and put yourself in a good position," Vickerman said after Wednesday's practice.

          And he's not wrong. Let's see what United looks like on the other side.

          My favourite plays of the week

          It's sometimes easy to forget how good of an athlete Jordan Hunter is. Here he is getting it done on both ends.

          Luke Travers hit a pair of threes to open the fourth quarter against the Wildcats. Here, he gets the catch at the top of the key, pump fakes -- a lazy close-out from Jordan Usher makes him crash out of the play -- before taking it to the rim for the open layup. High IQ stuff from Travers.

          The Adelaide 36ers attacked out of the short roll all game against the Brisbane Bullets, who threw a relatively ineffective hard hedge at the ball handler coming off on-balls. The result was plays like this, with Isaac Humphries finding Jacob Wiley with the crafty drop-off pass.

          Exum has been elite defensively since being given extended minutes by the Mavericks. He consistently puts his body on the line on that end of the floor, and uses his verticality extremely well.

          Not many bigs in the NBL can do this. Lachlan Olbrich has such a unique skillset for his size.

          Stats for this column were sourced by RealGM and SpatialJam