<
>

Please don't go, Joe: Is the Wallabies' progress enough to get Schmidt to stay?

Please don't go, Joe.

That is the overwhelming sentiment from stakeholders across the Australian rugby diaspora when it comes to Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt, and whether the Kiwi decides to extend his stay beyond next year's historic British & Irish Lions Series.

While Sunday morning's [AEDT] 22-19 loss to Ireland meant Australia finished their 2024 Test season with a 6-7 record, the nature of that defeat, and the body of work before it this year, has put Schmidt's future squarely in the spotlight.

For the record, the former Ireland coach and All Blacks assistant wants to have made a decision before the year is out, while Rugby Australia executives Phil Waugh and Dan Herbert are right now preparing what they hope will be a compelling and "creative" extension that ensures Schmidt continues on to the 2027 Rugby World Cup.

Over the next few days, Schmidt will weigh up committing for a further two-and-a-half years with the need to spend more time with his family; his son has an ongoing medical condition.

But the Kiwi has certainly made an impression on the Wallabies playing group, which was stripped of any sense of confidence and unity by Eddie Jones in 2023.

But 371 days on from Jones' departure, even amid the pain of a narrow defeat, the positivity among Australia's spring tour party was still on show in the aftermath of the Dublin loss.

"He's done a lot for us this year and changed the way we play. The results sort of speak for themselves what he's done this year," Wallabies back-rower Rob Valetini said.

"So if he was able to extend, the boys would be keen for that.

"I think he's had a good year around us, and hopefully we haven't been too stressful on him.

"The boys enjoy his time, and the main thing is he's been keen to give his time for us, and that probably means the most to us. He only wants us to do better."

While 2024 was effectively still a losing season, the contrast in results, style of play and many of the key statistics, was stark to both the 2023 season under Jones and the year prior under Dave Rennie, who was sacked to repatriate the 2003 World Cup runner-up.

Chaos, right?

In 2022 the Wallabies had a winning percentage of 35.7%, a year later it was 22.2%.

Under Schmidt in 2024 it was 46.15%.

What was also evident this year was how Schmidt came to the job armed with a plan and then went about executing it.

In July against Wales and Georgia, he took the opportunity to get a look at a swathe of first-time Wallabies, players who had caught the eye in Super Rugby like Isaac Kailea, Josh Flook, Darby Lancaster and Angus Blyth, among others; some took their opportunity, while others were found not to be up to Test standard, at this point anyway.

In the early weeks of the Rugby Championship at home to South Africa, the Wallabies purposely employed a very narrow attack, one that played into the hands of the two-time reigning world champions. But the approach allowed Australia the opportunity to zero in on the basics, which allowed them to then expand their game plan later in the southern hemisphere showpiece and then on tour in the U.K.

While the 40-point defeat by the Pumas in La Plata was a reality check, Australia had put in place an attacking framework that began to bed in during the back-to-back Bledisloe defeats by the All Blacks, and then really exploded in wins over England and Wales.

When your outside backs are scoring tries in the corner, as Max Jorgensen and Tom Wright did across the spring tour, it's a sure-fire sign that your attack is working.

Meanwhile, the Wallabies discipline was also vastly improved - the average penalty count was down to 11 from 13 in 2023, as per the Sydney Morning Herald, while on the spring tour they conceded more than 10 penalties on just the one occasion, in the 14-point loss to Scotland [14].

The battle to win a game of Test rugby gets increasingly more difficult once you give away more than 10 penalties in a single fixture.

Defensively, the loss to Ireland told you everything you need to know about the improvement in both the Wallabies' organisation and alignment. Just six days earlier Australia had missed 34 tackles against Scotland, who capitalised on a backline reshuffle brought about by Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii's injury and exploited the visitors' midfield.

But against the Irish the Wallabies held their shape and despite a 1-3 share of territory they very nearly denied their hosts a memorable 150th anniversary of their rugby history. The fact that each of Ireland's three tries were launched from a close-range lineout drive only underscores the trust in Australia's defensive system; the hosts tried all sorts of complex midfield subterfuge, but the Wallabies were never put under any great stress.

And most pleasingly about the weekend's defeat, was the fact that there was no masking of the reality that it was indeed a loss, that there was clear frustration and the motivation to be better, despite the Wallabies having run a team ranked six positions higher than them, on their home deck, so close.

"It was a little bit similar in some ways, but we had a lot less ball than Ireland... and we were talking a little bit about you can't beat them with the sledgehammer, you've got to get the scalpel out and you've got to be accurate; that's the best way to open them up," Schmidt said when asked whether Australia had played to their game plan.

"The disappointment was that I felt we probably opened them up just enough times to get enough scoreboard separation. When you get 13-5 that's a nice separation, and if we could have scored first after halftime and it's our kick-off and we're kicking deep and suddenly give up a penalty and they come closer.

"That was probably the disappointment because I felt if we could have built on that lead in the first 10 minutes after halftime it could have emphasised the pressure that Ireland were under."

Alas, it wasn't to be.

But the Wallabies are building a group of players who can be, if they are not already, world class. In Fraser McReight, Rob Valetini and Len Ikitau, Australia have arguably a top-three player in the world in their position.

Nick Frost and Tom Wright are well on the way to joining that group, while Angus Bell, who did not play on the weekend, is another who can make that leap in 2025. Add to that skipper Harry Wilson, lock Jeremy Williams and a growing legion of outside backs that has only scratched the surface of its potential, and the Wallabies first-choice starting XV is very nearly settled.

The growth in Noah Lolesio's game is also obvious. Given the chance to start in all but two of Australia's 13 Tests, the young playmaker has relished the continuity and taken steps in every game he has played as a result; the nerve he showed to kick both a sidelined conversion and a 47-metre bomb also doesn't happen without extended time in the saddle.

Which leaves the scrum and Taniela Tupou, in particular, in the spotlight. If new Waratahs coach Dan McKellar, who is noted for his set-piece focus, can get Tupou on the paddock, playing consistent minutes up front in Super Rugby Pacific next season, then the mercurial prop could well be the difference against the Lions in 2025.

All the pieces are there for the Wallabies to seriously challenge Andy Farrell's tourists next year in what promises to be a rugby event like no other since 2003. Whether Schmidt bows out as Australia's coach at the conclusion of it will likely be decided before the average Australian rugby fan has finished their Christmas list.

Even though wish No. 1 is an easy guess: "Please don't go, Joe."