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The Deep Dive: Are the Dockers Melbourne's biggest challenger?

Every Wednesday of the 2022 season, ESPN will combine with Champion Data to provide an in-depth analysis on a particular hot topic in the AFL.


Despite being closer to the season's infancy than its swansong, 180 quarters, 45 matches and five rounds is enough of a sample size to tell us which teams are the real premiership threats in 2022.

Or, if that's too premature and outlandish for you, at least which sides are playing the brand that stacks up in September.

Of course, there's still plenty of time for the seemingly lacklustre and underperforming teams to turn things around, but there's also a reason for their downfall.

Conversely, some sides, like Fremantle and St Kilda, who are exceeding preseason expectations, have skyrocketed up the ladder. And it isn't a random surge, as the data suggests, they could legitimately be the real deal.

When you think of key performance indicators, many will immediately refer to clearance numbers, the highly-glorified contested possession count or goal kicking accuracy as a measure of potential success. And while there's merit in using those metrics, the fact is they don't tell you the full story.

Historically, there are seven key statistical pillars that underpin a side's fortunes: points against, points against from turnovers, inside 50 differential, time in forward half differential, opposition score per inside 50s, points from turnovers differential and defensive 50 to inside 50 transition.

The 10 most recent AFL premiers have ranked in the top six in at least four of those categories, and nine of them in at least three. They're the seven strongest links we can make to premiership success.

In layman's terms, it all comes down to the defence and territory game - play with the ball in your forward half and stop your opponents from moving the ball with ease to stifle their score sources.

Unsurprisingly, Melbourne is the only team that ticks all seven boxes so far, but it's Justin Longmuir's Dockers who are raising the most eyebrows through five weeks.

Fremantle have burst out of the gates to sit second on the ladder with a 4-1 record after a handful of games. They are +188 for points differential from turnovers, which is an enormous figure, leading flag fancies Melbourne (+173) and Brisbane (+73).

In the past five seasons, the team that ranks first in the league in this area of the game, at this stage of the season, has at least featured in preliminary final week - a stage last seen by the men in purple in 2015.

Simply, the youthful Dockers, who still need to welcome Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe in the starting 22, have set up a flag-worthy base through the cosmic improvement of ruckman Sean Darcy and midfielder Andrew Brayshaw -- who has taken his game to another stratosphere -- the proficiency of key position pillars Alex Pearce, Brennan Cox, Luke Ryan, Matt Taberner and Rory Lobb, and the fleet-footed brigade including Sam Switkowski, Travis Colyer and Lachie Schultz, who apply forward 50 pressure which kickstarts their defensive game.

Not only are they the hardest team to score against from turnovers (just 24.2 points per game), but they're punishing teams the other way.

Only the Demons (299) have conceded fewer points than the Dockers (307) who are still 56 points ahead of the next best team, while they're also ranked third for opposition scores per inside 50 (1.33 points, or one score per 2.64 entries).

It hasn't been a rise unforeseen. The gradual incline already had the base of a strong defensive system since Longmuir took the reins in 2019, but their scoring had been a problem which flowed into 2021 when the Dockers were 18th for goal conversion, despite generating the third most scoring shots in the league.

Now it seems they've finally got the balance right, kicking more goals than behinds in every game so far, except for the opening round - a one-point win over Adelaide.

The Dockers have five of the what we'll call 'premiership checklist' ticked off, ranking seventh for inside 50 differential and 12th for defensive 50 to inside 50 transition to round out their areas in need of improvement.

The Saints have four of the seven ticked off, ranking fifth for points against (375), fourth for opposition score per inside 50 (1.48 points, or one score per 2.52 entries), fourth in points against from turnovers (43.8) and fifth for points differential from turnovers (+63). But so far they lack in the ball movement and territory game, sitting 17th for defensive 50 to inside 50, 12th for inside 50 differential and seventh for time spent in their forward half.

Craig McRae's Collingwood has the best territory game in the AFL after five weeks, ranking No. 1 for both time spent in forward half and inside 50 differential (+49).

It's also pleasant viewing if you're a Suns fan, too. While, maybe we don't get sucked into the Blues just yet.

See for yourself, which teams are playing 'premiership football', and where is it that your club is playing catch up, or needs to improve?


Adelaide

Points against: 14th

Opposition score per inside 50: 13th

Points against from turnovers: 14th

Points from turnovers differential: 14th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 11th

Inside 50 differential: 14th

Time in forward half: 16th

Brisbane

Points against: 3rd

Opposition score per inside 50: 2nd

Points against from turnovers: 6th

Points from turnovers differential: 3rd

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 1st

Inside 50 differential: 10th

Time in forward half: 9th

Carlton

Points against: 8th

Opposition score per inside 50: 16th

Points against from turnovers: 13th

Points from turnovers differential: 12th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 14th

Inside 50 differential: 6th

Time in forward half: 11th

Collingwood

Points against: 10th

Opposition score per inside 50: 10th

Points against from turnovers: 10th

Points from turnovers differential: 8th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 10th

Inside 50 differential: 1st

Time in forward half: 1st

Essendon

Points against: 18th

Opposition score per inside 50: 18th

Points against from turnovers: 17th

Points from turnovers differential: 15th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 16th

Inside 50 differential: 15th

Time in forward half: 13th

Fremantle

Points against: 2nd

Opposition score per inside 50: 3rd

Points against from turnovers: 1st

Points from turnovers differential: 1st

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 12th

Inside 50 differential: 7th

Time in forward half: 6th

Geelong

Points against: 10th

Opposition score per inside 50: 7th

Points against from turnovers: 12th

Points from turnovers differential: 7th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 8th

Inside 50 differential: 2nd

Time in forward half: 5th

GWS

Points against: 16th

Opposition score per inside 50: 15th

Points against from turnovers: 15th

Points from turnovers differential: 18th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 4th

Inside 50 differential: 11th

Time in forward half: 14th

Gold Coast

Points against: 6th

Opposition score per inside 50: 9th

Points against from turnovers: 3rd

Points from turnovers differential: 10th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 7th

Inside 50 differential: 5th

Time in forward half: 2nd

Hawthorn

Points against: 7th

Opposition score per inside 50: 5th

Points against from turnovers: 8th

Points from turnovers differential: 9th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 5th

Inside 50 differential: 16th

Time in forward half: 15th

Melbourne

Points against: 1st

Opposition score per inside 50: 1st

Points against from turnovers: 2nd

Points from turnovers differential: 2nd

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 3rd

Inside 50 differential: 3rd

Time in forward half: 4th

North Melbourne

Points against: 17th

Opposition score per inside 50: 11th

Points against from turnovers: 18th

Points from turnovers differential: 16th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 15th

Inside 50 differential: 17th

Time in forward half: 17th

Port Adelaide

Points against: 13th

Opposition score per inside 50: 12th

Points against from turnovers: 11th

Points from turnovers differential: 13th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 12th

Inside 50 differential: 9th

Time in forward half: 10th

Richmond

Points against: 12th

Opposition score per inside 50: 17th

Points against from turnovers: 5th

Points from turnovers differential: 6th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 6th

Inside 50 differential: 13th

Time in forward half: 12th

St Kilda

Points against: 5th

Opposition score per inside 50: 4th

Points against from turnovers: 4th

Points from turnovers differential: 5th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 17th

Inside 50 differential: 12th

Time in forward half: 7th

Sydney

Points against: 4th

Opposition score per inside 50: 8th

Points against from turnovers: 7th

Points from turnovers differential: 4th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 9th

Inside 50 differential: 8th

Time in forward half: 8th

West Coast

Points against: 15th

Opposition score per inside 50: 14th

Points against from turnovers: 16th

Points from turnovers differential: 17th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 18th

Inside 50 differential: 18th

Time in forward half: 18th

Western Bulldogs

Points against: 9th

Opposition score per inside 50: 6th

Points against from turnovers: 8th

Points from turnovers differential: 11th

Defensive 50 to inside 50 transition: 2nd

Inside 50 differential: 4th

Time in forward half: 3rd