One of the most even and deep draft pools ever means phantom drafts are fraught with danger this year. There will be stunning sliders and bolters on both nights, and live trade scenarios will play out as talent falls.
The evenness of this year's crop has seen clubs unwilling to shift out of the first-round frame as clubs including Carlton and Melbourne offer huge packages to get up the order. Watch for Richmond -- who own eight of the top 24 picks -- to move a couple of their later selections into next year's draft. GWS will be listening to offers for their three first-rounders, while Sydney is also a team to watch with their two late firsts.
Clubs including North Melbourne, West Coast and Essendon have signalled their intent to get back into the first-round frame, with the latter anticipating an early bid on Academy star Isaac Kako.
The Tigers hold all the cards, and whatever they do at No. 1 will have immediate flow on effects. It makes the nights of November 20th and 21st so fascinating to watch unfold and clubs will have combinations of trades planned for certain scenarios. ESPN's top two prospects in 2024 are projected to land at picks 5 and 7, such is the balance at the top of clubs' big boards.
With six bids and 28 picks, this is ESPN's first round phantom mock a month out from the 2024 AFL Draft.
1. Richmond -- Sam Lalor
GWV Rebels/Vic Country
MID/FWD, 188cm
He wears No. 4 on his back, loves using the fend off and hits the scoreboard from the midfield. Richmond is becoming enamoured with Lalor, and he may be the least likely of the top handful of prospects to be available to them at pick 6. The midfielder's upside is worthy of the top selection. He's a nightmare matchup with his power and aerial ability when swung forward, and the potential is there for him to become the next forward-half game-wrecker capable of the sublime. Lalor edges out Finn O'Sullivan and Jagga Smith for the top spot as it stands.
2. North Melbourne -- Alix Tauru
Gippsland Power/Vic Country
FWD/DEF, 193cm
North's interest in Tauru is well-documented. The high-flying tall is a sensational aerialist, launching himself at the ball with reckless abandon. He can intercept down back or play as a traditional lead-out full forward, and fits North's build perfectly. The Roos have flirted with trading down the order for another top 20 selection but would risk missing out on Tauru if they traded too far back, such is his meteoric rise.
3. Carlton -- Finn O'Sullivan
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Country
MID, 182cm
O'Sullivan had a frustrating campaign with injury and consistency but it speaks volumes that multiple clubs would still take him at No. 1 overall. Carlton worked some magic to push up the order and they're now in a position to draft the midfielder, pairing him with cousin Sam Walsh for the next decade. O'Sullivan provides immediate remedy to a midfield unit looking for more running power.
4. BID: Brisbane -- Levi Ashcroft
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
MID, 179cm
Ashcroft will attract a top five bid after capping off a historic junior football career with his third CTL premiership. The younger brother of Norm Smith medallist Will, Levi brings more scoreboard impact and may start his career inside 50 before graduating to the on-ball brigade at the Lions.
5. Adelaide -- Sid Draper
South Adelaide/South Australia
MID, 182cm
Draper is SA's top prospect and showed he's AFL-ready with dominant SANFL performances to end the year. For a Crows midfield lacking speed and dare, Draper's burst from stoppage, creativity going inside 50 and ability to kick goals from the midfield will surely appeal. Adelaide won't be short of options to retool their midfield brigade, with Josh Smillie, Murphy Reid and Jagga Smith all offering something different.
6. Melbourne -- Harvey Langford
Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country
MID, 190cm
Melbourne's disappointing campaign offers a silver lining at this pick, where a stack of highly touted midfielders will appeal. Langford is the big-bodied goalkicker, adept at taking contested marks around the ground and using his booming left boot to break down defences. The Demons' midfield trio is ageing, and Langford's point of difference height and skillset adds depth.
7. Richmond -- Jagga Smith
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
MID, 181cm
It's a huge coup for the Tigers if Smith is on the board here after considering at the top choice. The local boy turned out impressive performances for their VFL side and had an unbelievably consistent year on-ball, proving to be one of the best CTL accumulators ever. He's fleet of foot, opens the game up for teammates and offers one of the highest floors in the draft pool.
8. BID: Gold Coast -- Leo Lombard
SUNS Academy/Allies
MID/FWD, 179cm
Lombard adds to the Suns Academy riches; an explosive forward-half midfielder that won a VFL premiership as a 16-year-old and would have played a lot of AFL football if he was on the Gold Coast list in 2024. His mix of speed, agility and power is unmatched in junior football and the Suns will happily match a bid wherever it falls. The Saints have been rumoured to strike here, but this bid could come a little later.
9. St Kilda -- Josh Smillie
Eastern Ranges/Vic Metro
MID, 195cm
Smillie is the type of high-upside midfielder St Kilda has been craving. His ceiling is tantalising as a 195cm inside midfielder with beautiful skills, able to feed runners like Darcy Wilson on the outside and get forward to kick goals. Smillie spent extended periods as the top choice for a lot of recruiters this year but fell away late in the year.
10. St Kilda -- Xavier Lindsay
Gippsland Power/Vic Country
MID, 183cm
Lindsay's intangibles as a leader with a professional mindset is super impressive when combined with his silky inside-outside game. He's a running machine with a laser left boot, fitting Ross Lyon's power running list build to a tee. Isaac Kako may attract a bid at this point, and local talent Murphy Reid and Harry Armstrong will also be considered.
11. Melbourne -- Murphy Reid
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
MID/FWD, 180cm
Reid's draft range is wide, but his silky talent has been undeniable all season. He claimed Vic Metro's MVP at the championships and won another flag with Sandringham despite injuring his knee in the Grand Final. Melbourne's search for more goals could settle on Reid after trading up for this pick; he figures to start his career as a creative half forward before eventually moving on-ball.
12. Richmond -- Tobie Travaglia
Bendigo Pioneers/Vic Country
DEF/MID, 187cm
Travaglia is unique at the top of the pool, a hard-running halfback with leadership aspirations and bucket loads of competitiveness. It's not only an area of need for the Tigers, but Travaglia suits in the cultural elements that he provides for a rebuild. His flexibility to play across all three levels will appeal for a club effectively restarting with a blank canvas.
13. BID: Essendon -- Isaac Kako
Calder Cannons/Vic Metro
FWD, 175cm
A bid for Kako may come earlier, and Essendon saw it likely that pick 9 would be eaten up so pulled the trigger to trade out. It means they guarantee themselves the best small forward in the pool. Kako is a sublime goalkicker with aspirations to move up the ground in time. His dash, dare and poise are much-needed in the Dons' forward 50.
14. Richmond -- Harry Armstrong
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
FWD, 195cm
Armstrong finished the season with a bang and is a lot of recruiter's best key forward in the pool. After taking Lalor, Smith and Travaglia, shoring up key position stocks should be a priority for the Tigers. Armstrong's ability to get up the ground, clunk big pack marks and kick accurately for goal is a well-rounded package.
15. West Coast -- Bo Allan
Peel Thunder/Western Australia
DEF/MID, 191cm
It's no sure thing WA's best prospect makes it to the Eagles after they traded down from No. 3. But it's also not a given that they target him at this point if Travaglia or Reid are available. Allan won a WAFL premiership with Peel Thunder last month and has split his time both in the engine room and off halfback. He's defensively inclined, offers an elite athletic profile and is one of the best leaders in the pool. Allan will play a lot of senior football next year.
16. Port Adelaide -- Joe Berry
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
FWD, 181cm
Berry's creativity, scoreboard impact and precise ball use has made him a first-round lock, and he has a host of clubs interested in this range. It's the type of player Port Adelaide would have loved in finals, able to make the most of half-chances and execute under pressure. Berry adds immediate competition in a shallow small forward unit at the Power, who have also shown interest in Cooper Hynes and Luke Trainor.
17. Fremantle -- Taj Hotton
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
FWD/MID, 182cm
Hotton is a relative unknown after tearing his ACL early in the season, but he was on track to be picked much higher than this spot. Fremantle has registered interest in Berry and Hotton may be the next best thing, with his accumulation, goalkicking penchant and class all hallmarks of his game. Long-term, the agile Dragons star may become a nasty one-two punch with recruit Shai Bolton.
18. GWS -- Oli Hannaford
GWV Rebels/Vic Country
FWD/DEF, 180cm
Hannaford has burst into first-round contention after leaving his run too late to attract a national combine invite. That won't stop the Giants from swooping at this stage - his aerial ability for a small forward is elite, and he loves to use his speed and nous to kick goals in a variety of ways.
19. GWS -- Jobe Shanahan
Bendigo Pioneers/Allies
FWD, 194cm
A Moama native, Shanahan solidified his first-round stock with a brilliant block of football for Essendon in the VFL. The barrel-chested tall is a strong contested mark and booming kick, plus showed good aerobic capacity at the combine. He's a long-term prospect at the next level and GWS can afford to wait, but this selection is also a live trade chance on the night.
20. BID: Brisbane -- Sam Marshall
Sandringham Dragons/Allies
MID, 185cm
Academy graduate Marshall adds to the Lions' riches and is likely to bring about a bid on the first night. While the Dogs would love to add his running power, it's Brisbane who has first dibs. Like Jaspa Fletcher before him, Marshall may start his career on a wing.
21. Western Bulldogs -- Cooper Hynes
Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country
FWD/MID, 190cm
The Dogs don't have a player like Hynes, whose power, speed and tackling intent will make him an exciting half forward at the next level. Hynes tore games apart from the midfield by kicking bags of goals and finding a lot of the ball, and his upside as a game-changing midfielder is also exciting. The Dogs have lost a lot of run from their midfield and Hynes has the scope to fill the hole alongside Ryley Sanders, but not before he adds more pressure to their forward line.
22. Richmond -- Luke Trainor
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
DEF, 194cm
Trainor is the slider in this phantom draft, but he shouldn't make it past the Tigers at this point. The intercepting tall was touted as a top 10 pick earlier this season but an inconsistent run due to injury has seen him drop out of that top rung. He's a beautiful aerialist and classy by foot, able to kickstart transition with slicing ball use. The tutelage of Nick Vlastuin may be exactly what Trainor needs.
23. Sydney -- Jack Whitlock
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
FWD, 200cm
The Swans took their ruck of the future last year in Will Green and should be looking for more depth in their key position players after falling short again. Jack Whitlock is a strong-marking forward with huge potential up forward with his athletic base and reach. He'll be a slow burn as he builds out his frame but the upside is huge as the focal point of a team's forward line.
24. Richmond -- Alex Dodson
Sturt/South Australia
RUC, 203cm
This pick may be moved if a package entices the Tigers, but if not Alex Dodson will appeal as the ruck of the future. The basketball star turned his back on college scholarships and a professional contract to pursue football; he's the top ruck prospect this year and his soft hands and ability to win clearances will eventually translate well to the next level.
25. GWS -- Matt Whitlock
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
DEF/FWD, 199cm
Matt won't be made to wait long after Jack is picked, and the Giants are able to take key position talent of the future if they don't move this selection. A key defender who has been swung forward to great success, Whitlock will require time but offers good insurance if Leek Aleer moves on next year.
26. Sydney -- Hamish Davis
Claremont/Western Australia
FWD/MID, 190cm
The Swans took a swing at Will Hayward to great success a few years ago and could do so again with a similar player in Hamish Davis. The aerobic freak is a prolific goalkicker at half forward and had monster games in the midfield at Colts level. Davis has everything required of the modern-day half forward.
27. BID: St Kilda -- Adrian Cole
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
DEF, 194cm
It might be a surprise to see Cole bid on in the first round, but he's quietly put together a brilliant season as a lockdown tall defender and his strong combine 2km has him in considerations on night one. St Kilda will be keen to match a bid on their academy prospect who looks sure to eventually fill the place of the departed Josh Battle.
28. Richmond -- Jesse Dattoli
Northern Knights/Vic Metro
MID/FWD, 179cm
Dattoli's profile is unique -- he averages a contested mark per game despite his size and is a nightmare one-on-one matchup with his smarts and strength. He's also shown ability on-ball to rack up possessions and hit the scoreboard from the midfield, but despite the package there isn't buzz around him much higher than this spot. The Tigers could trade out here, but the upside swing on Dattoli would be a nice decision.