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Avoid Matthew Stafford, consider starting Ameer Abdullah in Week 1 of fantasy

DETROIT -- Week 1 is always a tough read in fantasy football. Everything is new. Preseason can only tell you so much about a player’s potential role. And game plans haven’t been revealed yet, so a bunch of what you read is hyperbole and educated guessing.

But some things are known, based on the opponent, past performances and how the Lions typically have fared. With that in mind -- and as you set your lineups for Week 1 of the fantasy season -- here’s some advice on Lions players.

QB Matthew Stafford: For the Lions to beat the Cardinals, the game likely will have to be high scoring. This bodes well for Stafford, who historically has operated better in two-minute situations. Since 2011, Stafford has averaged 20.8 points in openers in standard leagues and 20.9 points in PPR. He’s also thrown for more than one touchdown in all but one of those games. That said, things have not gone well against the Cardinals. In four games against them since 2011, Stafford has averaged eight fantasy points per game and has been kept from throwing a passing touchdown in two of those games. So this week? There probably are better historical options.

RB Ameer Abdullah: Yes, Arizona’s defense is good. But Abdullah’s history in openers is better from a fantasy perspective. His two best fantasy games of his career have come on Week 1 the past two seasons: a 19.4-point PPR performance against San Diego in 2015 and a 23-point PPR performance against the Colts last year. He caught four or more passes, had 50 or more yards receiving and scored touchdowns in each of those games. To me, he’s a solid RB2 this week. Keep in mind, Abdullah was benched the last time he faced Arizona (mostly due to fumbling issues).

RB Theo Riddick: The pass-catching back always is a good PPR option, especially if the Lions try to up the tempo -- something coordinator Jim Bob Cooter hinted at this week. Riddick has scored in the last two openers -- receiving touchdowns in both games, plus a rushing touchdown against Indianapolis. He’s not expected to be a rushing threat, so he’s not worth playing in standard leagues. In PPR, he might be a good flex play. In his last game against the Cardinals in 2015, he had 10 catches for 53 yards and a receiving touchdown.

WR Marvin Jones: Jones is tough to read. He looked great in the preseason, just like last year. And he had a hot start last year, including a 12.5 PPR performance against the Colts in Week 1. I like Jones a lot in 2017, but don’t love this matchup for him. Arizona has tough corners. In the one game he’s had against the Cardinals, he had four catches for 60 yards. There should be better options this week.

WR Golden Tate: Tate was a consistent fantasy performer at the end of last season, racking up more than 11 PPR points in his last six games, including three games over 20 points. He never has been great in openers, though, with only two games over 10 PPR points. Arizona has found ways to stifle Tate as he’s averaged 6.7 PPR points in eight career games against the Cardinals. I think he does better than that this week -- think between six and eight catches -- but I'm not sold on his yardage here. He might be a WR3/flex play this week, but realize this might be a tough one for Tate.

WR Kenny Golladay: I wouldn’t go with him this week. He’s been dealing with an ankle injury that has limited him in practice and he’ll be splitting reps with TJ Jones, who could be a sneaky boom-or-bust daily fantasy play on the cheap. At some point, he could be worth getting in your lineup. I’m just not sure it’s against the Cardinals.

TE Eric Ebron: Yes, he’s been hurt all preseason, but I like him this week as a TE1 in 12-team leagues or higher and a TE2 in all leagues. There’s reason for this. He has scored touchdowns in his last two season openers and has scored more than 15 PPR points the last two years. He didn’t have a good game against Arizona in 2014 (four catches, 22 yards, 6.2 PPR points) but he has improved since then. I know Matthew Berry has him on his hate list this week with a good reason: Arizona’s tight end defense was stellar last year. So there’s a risk involved with Ebron, but I anticipate a reasonable performance from him.

Lions defense: Don’t. Not with other options out there and a good offensive opponent.