JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- As coach Doug Marrone said recently, Gardner Minshew is no doubt the Jacksonville Jaguars’ starting quarterback in 2020.

After that?

Well, that depends on a lot of things, including how well he plays, how many games the Jaguars win and who is making personnel decisions.

That means the next nine months are critical for Minshew to prove that he can be the long-term starting quarterback for a franchise has been searching for one since Mark Brunell held the spot from midway through the 1995 season until September 2003. And Minshew is taking the reins with a virtual offseason, a new offensive coordinator (Jay Gruden) and the uncertainty of when -- or even if -- the NFL will begin training camp and the season.

Those aren’t exactly ideal conditions, and Minshew doesn’t have the luxury of getting two or three years to develop. That's because Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, considered one of the best quarterback prospects in years, should be at the top of the 2021 draft, along with Ohio State's Justin Fields. If Minshew falters, the Jaguars could be in position to draft either quarterback.

Even if the Jaguars aren't picking in the top five next spring, they own two first-round picks and will have the draft capital to move up.

Minshew was in a similar situation not too long ago and he did answer the challenge. He was planning on walking on at Alabama as a graduate transfer in 2018 but agreed to go to Washington State after a call from coach Mike Leach. Minshew showed up in June, picked up Leach’s Air Raid offense in little more than a month, won the starting job and led the nation in attempts and completions while guiding the Cougars to the first 11-win season in school history.

It’s that last stat that truly matters. Washington State hadn’t won double-digit games since 2003 and had just six seasons with double-digit victories since the football program began in 1917. Quarterbacks are judged on victories, and Minshew won six games as the injury replacement for Nick Foles last season, more than any other rookie quarterback. That's the main reason the Jaguars are giving him a chance to prove himself in 2020.

“I think the biggest thing for that position, and we said it last year, is the ability to win games,” Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell said. “And Gardner’s done that throughout his career, whether it was high school, whether it was at Washington State where he won 11 games the year he came out, and last year for us. He’s got an ability to lead a team and win games. ... That’s always going to be the No. 1 thing.”

Minshew went 6-6 as the Jaguars’ starter in 2019 and overall played pretty well. He had the highest passer rating (91.2) and fewest interceptions (six) of any rookie quarterback and set franchise rookie records in passing yards (3,271) and touchdown passes (21). He also had some pretty bad performances -- especially against New Orleans, Houston and Atlanta -- but the good was enough to convince the Jaguars that Minshew earned a prove-himself season.

That’s why they traded Foles to Chicago for a fourth-round pick on March 18 and why they didn’t use some of their 12 draft picks, including two first-rounders, to put together a package to move up from ninth into the top four to draft Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. The Jaguars did draft a quarterback, but not until the sixth round, when they took Oregon State’s Jake Luton.

The Jaguars also passed on signing Jameis Winston or Cam Newton, two experienced starters (and one former NFL MVP), or any of the other veteran quarterbacks available. There was some interest in Andy Dalton after he was released, but Dalton signed with Dallas, and the Jaguars eventually signed Mike Glennon to add a veteran presence in the quarterback room.

It proved the team's confidence in Minshew -- for 2020, at least.

“I’m just expecting to get his best,” Marrone said. “He’s been in so many tough, adverse situations, just on his path and his journey toward the NFL. ... I’m just assuming that he’ll rely on a lot of that. I think that he’s done a good job while he’s been here in developing a relationship with the players.”

Minshew’s teammates clearly believe in him.

“Gardner came in with a lot of energy and he was a great leader,” second-year right tackle Jawaan Taylor said. “Once he came in, we all rallied around him and supported him all the way through the season. He made a lot of great plays for us, and we are looking forward to seeing what he will do for us in the future.”

The future for Minshew, Caldwell and Marrone is murky beyond this season. Owner Shad Khan said after last season’s disappointing 6-10 record that the time to win is now. That puts a lot of pressure on Minshew, especially with the Jaguars trading away defensive end Calais Campbell and cornerback A.J. Bouye in their quest to rebuild a defense that gave up 24.8 points per game in 2019.

Minshew and the young offense -- all are younger than 30 and only tight end Tyler Eifert and reserve lineman Tyler Shatley will turn 30 at some point in the season -- might have to carry the team, a tough ask for a unit that averaged just 18.8 points per game last season.

And while the Jaguars believe in Minshew, it doesn’t look like a lot of other teams do. Based on virtually all of the early 2021 mock drafts published in the past two weeks, the Jaguars are the favorite to have the top pick. Some of the drafts used the current Super Bowl gambling odds to determine draft order or other win projections, but others did not. Of 10 mock drafts done by reputable organizations and online sports publications, nine had the Jaguars taking Lawrence with the first pick.

One had the Jaguars picking third but still ending up with Lawrence because Cincinnati and Washington had the top two picks and bypassed quarterbacks.

Even if Minshew does play well in 2020, the Jaguars could still opt to trade him during the lead-up to the 2021 draft and use that as more trade capital -- plus their first-round pick and the first-round pick they acquired from the Jalen Ramsey trade with the Los Angeles Rams -- and move up for Lawrence or Fields, both of whom are regarded as solid long-term prospects.

That’s speculation as this point, but this much is certain: The 2020 season belongs to Minshew, and it’s up to him to do something to convince whoever is in charge in 2021 that he’s a franchise quarterback.

“Every year is a new year,” Caldwell said. “You hope that every player takes a jump up -- and that’s not just Gardner.

“... Another year of being in Jacksonville and we’ll see how that plays out.”