No. 6 Browns at No. 3 Steelers
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 61.4 | Spread: PIT -5.5 (47.5)
What to watch for: Pittsburgh safety Minkah Fitzpatrick calls Cleveland running back Nick Chubb one of the "most complete" backs in the league. Once one of the best run defenses in the NFL, the Steelers have been more porous in recent weeks with injuries mounting. Linebacker Robert Spillane is back, though, and will be key in slowing Chubb. -- Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction: Despite being short-handed because of COVID-19, the Browns will hang tough. But for a second consecutive week, Pittsburgh-Cleveland will come down to a 2-point conversion late in the fourth quarter. Only this time, it will be the Browns who come up short. -- Jake Trotter
Stat to know: Only Aaron Rodgers has a higher QBR on play-action this season than Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (93). But nobody defends against it better than Pittsburgh. Mayfield's yards per attempt dips from 9.5 on play-action to 6.5 without it, and his completion percentage falls from 68% to 61%, so how the Browns' run fakes work against the Steelers will go a long way in determining whether they can get their first playoff victory since Jan. 1, 1995.
Matt Bowen's game key: What will the Browns change with a new playcaller on Sunday night (coach Kevin Stefanski will miss the game with COVID-19)? I want to see them stay on script. That means two- and three-tight end sets, gap and zone runs with Chubb and Kareem Hunt and defined throws for Mayfield off play-action. Read more.
Betting nugget: The Steelers have covered in four of the past five meetings with the Browns (three straight) after Cleveland had covered in four of five prior matchups. Read more.
Trotter's pick: Steelers 28, Browns 26
Pryor's pick: Steelers 21, Browns 17
FPI prediction: PIT, 67.9% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Flip phones, "Friends" and LeBron's debut: It's been 18 years since the Browns made playoffs ... Roethlisberger guides Steelers' young players through playoff "whirlwind" ... It's been 25 years since the Browns broke Cleveland's heart and left for Baltimore ... NFL's oldest quarterbacks share playoff stage for first time ... Only family, friends allowed to attend Steelers' playoff game vs. Browns