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NFL Week 8 betting nuggets

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs losing to the Jets would be one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. Aaron M. Sprecher via AP Photo

Underdogs are 56-46-1 ATS (against the spread) this season. Underdogs went 8-5 ATS in Week 7, their third straight winning week.

Road teams are 58-46-1 ATS this season. After home teams went 17-15 ATS in the first two weeks, road teams are 43-29-1 ATS since Week 3.

Overs are 55-49-2 this season, after going 8-8 last week.

Now, here's a game-by-game look at Week 8.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.


New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• New England is 20-7 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2006 season, the best cover percentage as an underdog in that span.

• This is the first time New England is an underdog of at least three points in a divisional game since Week 7 of 2003, when it got six points at Miami (and won outright). It is the first time New England has been an underdog in a division game since Week 2 of 2015 at Buffalo (+1, won outright). New England is 16-6 ATS as an underdog in division games under Bill Belichick (13-9 outright).

• Both New England and Buffalo have failed to cover in each of their past three games.

• Since the start of the 2003 season, New England is 41-17 ATS in games coming off a loss -- that's the best cover percentage in that situation during that span.

• Since the start of the 2004 season, New England is 29-3 SU (straight up) and 19-11-2 ATS against Buffalo.

Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS this season coming off a loss.

• Tennessee is 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite. Tennessee is also 16-7-2 ATS in its past 25 games coming off a loss.

• The over is 14-2 in regular-season Tennessee games since Ryan Tannehill took over as starting quarterback last season.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-2.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• All six Las Vegas games this season have gone over the total. The longest over streak to start a season belongs to the 2002 Saints, who started that season with nine consecutive overs.

• The over is 3-0 in both Cleveland home games and Las Vegas road games this season.

• Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its past six games as a home favorite.

• Since the start of the 2015 season, Cleveland is 14-27-1 ATS in games in November or later.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Indianapolis is 11-3-1 ATS coming off a bye since the start of the 2005 season.

• Indianapolis is 15-6-1 ATS in nonconference games since the start of the 2015 season.

• Detroit is 8-15 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2015 season.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Green Bay is 5-1 ATS this season, tied with Los Angeles (A) and Pittsburgh for the best cover percentage in the league.

• Green Bay is 3-0 ATS versus Minnesota since the start of last season.

• Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its past five games as an underdog.

• Since the start of the 2018 season, Minnesota is 11-3-1 ATS in games following a loss.

• Since the start of the 2013 season, Minnesota is 38-20-2 ATS in November or later.

• The under is 25-11-1 in games in which Minnesota has taken on a divisional opponent since the start of 2014.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• This is the largest point spread of 2020 (previous largest: Baltimore -14 against Washington in Week 4, game ended as a push).

• The largest upset in the Super Bowl era is 20 points, done three times (last in 1974 by San Diego at Cincinnati). The largest upset in New York (A) history came in the third pro football championship game, when New York upset Baltimore as an 18-point underdog.

• As long as the spread ends with Kansas City favored by at least 17.5 points, this will be its largest point spread since the 1970 merger.

• New York (A) is 1-6 ATS this season, tied with Houston for the second-worst cover percentage in the league (Dallas is worst at 0-7).

• Kansas City is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 games as a favorite.

• Since the start of last season, Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in November or later.

• In the past 30 seasons, teams getting at least 17 points are 26-15-2 ATS and 4-39 outright. Two of the outright upsets came in the past two seasons.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Miami is 12-5 ATS in its past 17 games as an underdog dating back to last season.

• Since the start of last season, quarterbacks making their first career starts are 11-4 ATS and 5-9-1 outright.

• Since the start of the 2015 season, Miami is 4-0 ATS coming off a bye.

• The over in Miami games is 23-11-1 in November or later, dating back to the start of the 2016 season.

• Los Angeles is 9-3 ATS in games starting at 1 p.m. ET under Sean McVay (10-2 outright).

• In the three meetings between these two teams since 2008, the under is 3-0.

• Since the start of last season, Los Angeles (N) is 3-0 ATS in games after fewer than six days of rest.

• Los Angeles (N) is 19-9 SU and 17-11 ATS on the road since the start of the 2017 season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS this season, tied with Los Angeles (A) and Green Bay for the best cover percentage in the league.

• Pittsburgh is the seventh team in the Super Bowl era to get more than three points as an underdog with a 6-0 or better outright record. Each of the previous six teams lost outright (2-4 ATS).

• Pittsburgh is 10-2-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season. Pittsburgh is also 8-2 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2017 season.

• Baltimore is 14-4 ATS coming off a bye since the start of the 2002 season (9-3 ATS under John Harbaugh).

• Since the start of the 2017 season, Baltimore is 7-2-1 ATS versus Pittsburgh.

• The under is 32-10 in Pittsburgh's 42 road games since the start of the 2015 season.

• Since the start of last season, Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in November or later.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

• Los Angeles (A) is 5-1 ATS, tied with Green Bay and Pittsburgh for the best cover percentage in the league.

• Denver is 15-7 ATS in its past 22 games as an underdog.

• Los Angeles (A) is 7-2-1 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2017 season.

• Denver is 4-1 ATS in its past five games following a loss.

• Los Angeles (A) is 1-6 ATS against divisional opponents since the start of the 2019 season.

• Since the start of last season, Los Angeles is 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 outright when the line is between +3 and -3.

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Chicago Bears, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

• All six of New Orleans' games have gone over the total. The longest over streak to start a season belongs to the 2002 Saints, who started that season with nine consecutive overs.

• New Orleans is 14-4 ATS on the road since the start of the 2018 season.

• Since the start of the 2016 season, New Orleans is 13-4 ATS as a road favorite.

• All three of Chicago's home games have gone under the total.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3), Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

• San Francisco is 3-0 ATS on the road this season, and 7-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, including 6-0 ATS as a road underdog in that span.

• Seattle is 13-4 ATS against San Francisco since the start of the 2012 season.

• The over is 11-4-1 in Seattle's past 16 games in November of later.

• Seattle is 31-8 SU and 23-13-3 ATS in games following a loss since the start of the 2012 season.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

• Dallas is 0-7 ATS, for the first time ever -- one game short of the longest winless streak to start a season against the spread in the past 20 seasons. Oakland failed to cover in each of its first eight games in 2003.

• Since the start of the 2017 season, Dallas is 15-5 ATS against the NFC East.

Carson Wentz is 7-15 ATS in the past three seasons as a favorite.

• Philadelphia is 3-12 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2018 season -- that's the worst cover percentage in the league in that span (min. 10 games).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) at New York Giants, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

• New York (N) is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog since the start of last season. If you go back to the start of the 2018 season, New York (N) is 1-12 ATS as a home underdog.

• Tampa Bay and New York (N) have met eight times since the start of the 2006 season. New York (N) is 6-1-1 ATS in those eight games.

Tom Brady is 14-9-1 ATS in Monday games in his career.

• Home underdogs of 10 or more points this season are 1-0-1 ATS.

• Tom Brady is 22-12 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2016 season. He's 2-1 ATS in that situation this season.

• Tampa Bay is 11-20-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2014 season. That .355 cover percentage is second-worst as a favorite in that span.

• The over is 20-8 in Tampa Bay road games since the start of the 2017 season.