Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

Todd ZolaApr 27, 2025, 03:00 PM
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
15.0	Tyler Glasnow	R	PIT	94.2%	-325	8.5	67%	5.7	1.8	7.0
12.9	Tarik Skubal	L	BAL	99.8%	-210	7.5	58%	5.8	2.1	5.9
11.6	Spencer Schwellenbach	R	@ARI	93.4%	-115	8.5	60%	5.9	2.5	5.5
11.3	Joe Ryan	R	LAA	92.0%	-180	7.5	60%	5.5	2.8	6.7
11.1	Kevin Gausman	R	@NYY, Gm. 1	89.7%	+135	8.5	48%	5.9	2.6	6.1
10.4	Chris Bassitt	R	@NYY, Gm. 2	78.8%	+135	8.5	48%	5.9	2.8	5.9
10.3	Erick Fedde	R	MIL	14.5%	-110	8.5	49%	5.6	2.2	5.0
10.2	Zack Littell	R	@SD	3.3%	-105	8.5	51%	5.4	2.3	4.7
10.1	Max Fried	L	TOR, Gm. 1	99.1%	-190	8.5	52%	5.6	2.4	5.6
10.1	Aaron Nola	R	@CHC	87.9%	EVEN	7.5	50%	5.9	3.0	6.1
9.8	Max Meyer	R	@SEA	64.0%	+120	7.5	50%	5.3	2.6	5.9
9.8	Jose Quintana	L	@STL	25.1%	-110	8.5	51%	5.8	2.4	4.5
9.6	Clarke Schmidt	R	TOR, Gm. 2	13.7%	-190	8.5	52%	5.5	2.4	4.7
9.5	Jordan Hicks	R	TEX	8.4%	-135	7.5	57%	5.5	2.5	4.8
8.8	Logan Evans	R	MIA	2.5%	-145	7.5	50%	5.2	2.5	5.0
8.8	Jameson Taillon	R	PHI	9.9%	-120	7.5	50%	5.5	2.7	4.7
8.6	Brandon Pfaadt	R	ATL	80.9%	-105	8.5	40%	5.5	2.9	5.4
8.3	Mitchell Parker	L	NYM	40.8%	+125	7.5	45%	5.3	2.6	4.7
8.1	Dean Kremer	R	@DET	1.8%	+175	7.5	42%	5.6	3.0	4.9
8.0	Kris Bubic	L	HOU	80.7%	+120	7.5	51%	5.8	3.4	5.5
7.9	Hunter Brown	R	@KC	93.4%	-145	7.5	49%	5.4	3.0	5.2
7.9	Osvaldo Bido	R	CWS	4.9%	-210	9.5	58%	4.8	2.3	4.4
7.8	Jose Soriano	R	@MIN	16.9%	+150	7.5	40%	5.1	2.4	4.9
7.8	Tylor Megill	R	@WSH	42.1%	-150	7.5	55%	5.0	2.6	5.2
7.7	Brayan Bello	R	@CLE	12.7%	-105	7.5	54%	5.5	3.0	4.8
7.3	Davis Martin	R	@ATH	1.5%	+175	9.5	42%	5.2	2.7	4.5
7.1	Jack Leiter	R	@SF	36.1%	+115	7.5	43%	4.5	2.2	4.6
6.4	Logan Allen	L	BOS	11.2%	-115	7.5	46%	5.0	2.9	4.8
6.3	Randy Vasquez	R	TB	2.9%	-115	8.5	49%	4.8	2.3	3.5
5.7	Bailey Falter	L	@LAD	1.0%	+260	8.5	33%	4.6	2.6	3.8
2.8	Nick Lodolo	L	@COL	41.2%	-145	11.5	53%	4.9	4.8	5.4
0.9	Ryan Feltner	R	CIN	2.7%	+120	11.5	47%	4.9	5.0	4.5

Pitchers to stream on Sunday

RHP Tylor Megill is one of the reasons the New York Mets entered Saturday's action with the major league's best record. His record is only 3-2 but he's fortified the back end of a rotation missing veterans Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Next up is a road date with the Washington Nationals. Megill's 27.8% strikeout rate is well above average, but so is his 10.2% walk rate. However, the Nationals accept free passes at a below average clip.
You know the paradox, "What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?" On Sunday, the opposite will occur when RHP Jordan Hicks and the San Francisco Giants face the Texas Rangers in Oracle Field. Hicks sports 6.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over his first five starts. Meanwhile, the Rangers entered the weekend averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB. However, Hicks ERA estimators are closer to 4.00, which still isn't great, but sufficient to stream at one of the top pitching venues in the game. The Rangers' walk rate is the second lowest in the league and they're without SS Corey Seager.

Pitchers to avoid on Sunday

It may be tempting to pick up Milwaukee Brewers' LHP Jose Quintana for his road start against the St. Louis Cardinals. The veteran lefty boasts a .96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over three starts, spanning 18 2/3 innings. However, he's punched out only nine batters. A .236 BABIP and 96.6% left on base mark have suppressed an ERA well below his 4.23 xFIP and 4.73 SIERA. The Cardinals lineup isn't a juggernaut, but there is ample right-handed talent to look elsewhere for a Sunday streamer.

Sunday's best matchups for pitchers

Sunday's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Sunday

The chalk play is streaming Cincinnati Reds batters for their finale in Coors Field against Colorado Rockies RHP Ryan Feltner. The top option is 3B Noelvi Marte, followed by 1B/OF Spencer Steer, OF TJ Friedl and 2B/OF Gavin Lux.
The Tampa Bay Rays' left-handed contingent has been a frequent visitor to this space, especially when they're at home. On Sunday, they have a road tilt in Petco Park, but with the San Diego Padres sending RHP Randy Vasquez to the hill, 1B Jonathan Aranda and 2B Brandon Lowe get the nod.

Hitters to avoid on Sunday

A doubleheader in the Bronx would usually lead the "Hitters to Stream" section, but the Yankees and Blue Jays are both starting a pair of quality pitchers and are likely to use their entire hitting roster, so there isn't anyone to target that's likely to play both games.

Sunday's best matchups for hitters

Rockies batters vs. Reds pitchers
The average hitter would post a .380 wOBA in this matchup.

Reds batters vs. Rockies pitchers
The average hitter would post a .362 wOBA in this matchup.

Athletics RHB vs. White Sox pitchers
The average hitter would post a .329 wOBA in this matchup.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Sunday's top home run prop bets

Bryson Stott | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)

Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.93 EV
One reason to bet this: Stott's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (16.7 degrees) is quite a bit higher than his 10.6 degrees mark last year.

Yordan Alvarez | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)

Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.89 EV
One reason to bet this: Hitters such as Alvarez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kris Bubic who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Alex Verdugo | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)

Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.60 EV
One reason to bet this: The Arizona Diamondbacks have just one same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Verdugo has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Sunday's top pitcher prop bets

Joe Ryan | OVER 7.5 K (-110)

Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Ryan will have the handedness advantage over eight opposing bats today.

Jordan Hicks | UNDER 2.5 ER (-130)

Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.11 EV
One reason to bet this: Texas has been the No. 30 club in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4 degrees and 26 degrees, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (37.8% rate this year).

Tylor Megill | UNDER 5.5 K (-140)

Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.09 EV
One reason to bet this: The Washington Nationals have seven bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Megill in this matchup.

Sunday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Angels @ Twins | NRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $3.29 EV

Marlins @ Mariners | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $2.95 EV

Orioles @ Tigers | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $2.24 EV