Identifying rookies who will make a fantasy impact is often an exercise in futility. Last season, three rookies -- Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin -- ranked in the top 16 among wide receivers in standard fantasy scoring despite none of those players ranking in the top 40 in ESPN's preseason projections.
The biggest mistake that people make when projecting rookies is not paying enough attention to the situation into which players are drafted. In the NFL, particularly for first-year players, production is highly dependent on opportunity.
Beckham, Evans and Benjamin had one thing in common entering last season: They were all drafted by teams with gaping holes at receiver. All three ranked in the top six among rookie receivers in snaps and in the top four in targets, which resulted in each gaining more than 1,000 yards in 2014.
A similar story can be told for rookie running backs the past few years; the hype surrounding a player's college career often overshadows the chance he will see the field. Carlos Hyde, who was drafted into a crowded 49ers backfield, was a great example of this in 2014.
Based on snap data of the current 90-man rosters, below are five rookies who can make a significant fantasy impact in 2015 because they were drafted into favorable situations. It is unlikely that any of these rookies will be top-10 fantasy players, but they could provide value in deeper leagues and potentially emerge as late-round steals. It should be noted that the snap percentages may change as teams take shape in the preseason.
Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens: After losing Torrey Smith to free agency, the Ravens return 61 percent of their wide receiver snaps from 2014, which ranks 25th in the NFL. What opens up the opportunity for Perriman, however, is the fact that the Ravens did not sign a notable free agent to fill the void left by Smith.
In total, the receivers on the Ravens' current roster combined for 1,762 snaps in 2014, 540 fewer than any other receiving corps in the league. Add in the fact that the Ravens also lost their third-leading receiver, TE Owen Daniels, and there should be plenty of targets to go around for Perriman, who should thrive as Joe Flacco's go-to deep receiver.
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins: The Miami Dolphins lost an NFL-high 69 percent of their 2014 wide receiver snaps in the offseason after Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson were traded or released. Tight end Charles Clay, the team's third-leading receiver, signed with Buffalo. That leaves Jarvis Landry and new additions Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings as the Dolphins' top receiving options. Are any of those players No. 1 receivers? When you consider that Miami lined up with three of more wide receivers at the second-highest rate in the NFL in 2014, Parker should have plenty of opportunities to thrive in Bill Lazor's offense.
Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons: First-round draft picks Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon will receive most of the attention among rookie running backs heading into the 2015 season, but Atlanta's Tevin Coleman provides a great option for deeper leagues, because he is bound to receive carries.
The Falcons return just 39 percent of their running back snaps from last year following the departures of Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers. Unlike the two teams that return a lower percentage of snaps -- the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles -- the Falcons did not sign a notable free agent to fill their need. Instead, Atlanta drafted Coleman in the third round to play alongside Devonta Freeman and Antone Smith.
ESPN.com Falcons reporter Vaughn McClure believes Freeman and Coleman will split carries to start the season, which should give Coleman the opportunity to showcase his speed and vision. If Coleman's production is anything close to the level he reached in his final year at Indiana (2,036 yards, 7.5 yards per carry), he could be a fantasy steal.
Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns: With Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell entering their sophomore seasons, the Browns return 60 percent of their running back snaps from last season, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. Instead of signing a player to fill the lost snaps, the Browns drafted Duke Johnson.
Last season, Cleveland ranked sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts while splitting carries between West, Crowell and Ben Tate. With a new offensive coordinator and question marks at quarterback, the Browns should emphasize rushing once again. Johnson, the University of Miami's all-time leading rusher, has a chance to overtake the remaining running backs on the roster.
Don't let Cleveland's inefficient rushing in 2014 (3.6 yards per carry) fool you. The Browns' rushing game took a turn for the worse after losing Pro Bowl center Alex Mack. With Mack in the lineup, Cleveland averaged 4.4 yards per rush and ranked in the top five of the league in rushing yards per game.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: After being drafted No. 1 overall, Winston is not necessarily a sleeper like some of the players listed above. The past two rookie quarterback classes, however, have failed to produce virtually any fantasy value, so owners may be hesitant to draft an inexperienced signal-caller.
There is reason to believe Winston could make a fantasy impact in 2015, though. Not only is he likely to start from Week 1, but he should have a talented group of skill position players that experienced nearly zero turnover. Evans and Vincent Jackson will stretch the field, and their height will allow Winston to "throw it up" for big plays. Doug Martin also returns at running back and should provide balance on offense.
The combination of potentially 16 starts and an improved offense could make Winston the first rookie quarterback since 2012 to post numbers worthy of starting in many fantasy leagues.