Below are notes covering each of the NFL's 32 teams from a fantasy perspective. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for Week 4. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout this piece, I'll be referencing "OTD." OTD stands for opportunity-adjusted touchdowns. It is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. For example, if a player has an OTD of 3.0, it means that a league-average player who saw the same number of carries/targets in the same area of the field would have scored three touchdowns.
Andre Ellington was the lead man in the Cardinals' backfield on Monday night. The passing-down specialist was on the field for 49 snaps, compared to 31 for Chris Johnson. Ellington carried the ball only five times but caught five of eight targets for 59 yards. In Week 2 -- the first game in which David Johnson was out -- Ellington was on the field for 68 percent of the team's pass plays and was targeted five times. He doesn't sport a particularly high ceiling, but if Ellington sustains this heavy workload in the Arizona passing game, he will flirt with flex value in 12-team leagues. Especially with Chris Johnson (23 carries, 61 yards) struggling with effectiveness, Ellington is the top fantasy play in the Arizona backfield.
The Falcons may be 3-0, but quarterback Matt Ryan hasn't been nearly as productive as he was during Atlanta's historic 2016 season. Ryan threw for 38 touchdowns last year but has four in three games this season (a pace of 21.3). Ryan threw three interceptions on Sunday after totaling seven last year. Fantasy's No. 2 quarterback sits 14th this season. The Falcons' offense as a whole is averaging 2.7 touchdowns per game after posting 3.7 per game in 2016. Some regression to the mean was inevitable here and there is some reason for hope. Ryan's completion rate (69 percent) and yards per attempt (9.3) are down only slightly and his receivers continue to help him out by not dropping passes (one this year) and gaining a ton after the catch (7.0 RAC). Ryan remains a mid-pack QB1 option.
Mike Wallace entered this season having finished six of the past seven seasons as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver. At least so far, "seven out of eight" seems unlikely. Wallace has exactly one catch in each of his first three games this season. He's registered 21 yards and no touchdowns on nine targets. Wallace has actually been on the field for a larger share of the team's pass plays this season (85 percent), but his target share is down from 18 percent to 11 percent. Wallace is a strong bet for an increased workload moving forward, but the Ravens' offense is struggling to find the end zone for the third season in a row. Wallace is worth rostering, but he shouldn't be in lineups until his production increases.
Tyrod Taylor diced up a tough Denver defense on Sunday. The former Hokie completed 20 of 26 passes for 213 yards and two touchdowns. Taylor, who was fantasy's No. 8 scoring quarterback last season, has scored four touchdowns in three games and has exactly eight carries in all three outings. Despite a tough opening slate that included matchups with Denver and Carolina, Taylor sits 13th among quarterbacks in fantasy points. A much lighter schedule moving forward should allow Taylor a return to the QB1 ranks. He's a quality add on waivers this week.
Cam Newton is no longer a viable starting fantasy quarterback. Newton scored 50 touchdowns and was fantasy's top scorer at the position in 2015, but it's been all downhill from there. He finished 17th last season and has yet to post a weekly finish better than 17th though three games in 2017. On Sunday, Newton was set up in a dream scenario at home against a Saints defense that was lit up in Weeks 1 and 2 and was without three of its top four corners. Newton responded with 167 passing yards, 16 rushing yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Carolina has a light schedule this year, but Newton isn't throwing the ball well and has only 46 rushing yards on the year. His average depth of throw has dipped from 10.6 yards to 8.3, which has allowed a completion percentage boost from 52 percent to 61 percent, but his YPA has actually dropped by 0.1. Drop Newton in shallow leagues and make sure he's on benches in deeper leagues at New England in Week 4.
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have combined to handle 97 (or 67 percent) of the Bears' 145 offensive touches this season. Yeah, that's high. In fact, Howard, Cohen and fellow tailback Benny Cunningham finished first, second and third, respectively, on the team in receiving yardage during Sunday's win over Pittsburgh. Deonte Thompson was the only Bears wide receiver with a catch in the game; whereas Howard and Cohen combined for 264 yards on 44 touches. There aren't many situations where two running backs from the same team are viable fantasy starters, but the heavy usage of Howard and Cohen makes them both top-25 options moving forward. Howard is a fringe RB1 and Cohen more of a flex.
Week 3 was the Bengals' first outing with Bill Lazor as their offensive coordinator. The most drastic change in the offense was a much larger share of the touches for Joe Mixon. The rookie racked up 18 carries for 62 yards and three receptions for 39 yards. The big game came after he totaled 17 carries for 45 yards and four catches for 20 yards during his first two games. Mixon was on the field for 34 snaps on Sunday after handling 37 during the first two outings. Granted, the team leading throughout limited Giovani Bernard to 12 snaps, but Mixon playing well ahead of Jeremy Hill (14 snaps) and pacing the backfield with 13 pass routes was a good sign. Mixon is back in the RB2 mix against Cleveland this week.
Duke Johnson Jr. has registered only six carries this season, but he sits 17th in fantasy points among running backs thanks to his terrific receiving work. Johnson has 11 catches for 160 yards through three games. He was on the field for 44 percent of Cleveland snaps, ran a route on 42 percent of the pass plays and handled 13 percent of the targets last season. In 2017, those figures are up to 59 percent, 60 percent and 16 percent, respectively. A boost in carries would be ideal, but Johnson's receiving work is enough to keep him in the RB2 discussion.
Following an impressive 10-catch, 97-yard performance in Week 2, Jason Witten plummeted back to earth with a one-catch, 4-yard effort against Arizona on Monday night. It's a reminder that expectations need to be kept in check for the 35-year-old tight end. Witten had racked up 22 targets during the first two games after averaging 6.2 per game last season. Witten entered Week 3 with two touchdowns, but sported a 1.1 OTD and was (and still is) a candidate for touchdown regression to the mean. Witten is best viewed as a fringe TE1 in run-heavy Dallas.
C.J. Anderson has been terrific out of the gate this season, but Jamaal Charles was even better on Sunday. Anderson put up 38 yards on eight carries and Charles added 56 yards and a score on nine attempts. Considering Charles' career success and his strong play thus far, it's fair to assume Charles will continue to play a sizable role. Anderson has been on the field for at least 69 percent of the team's snaps each of the team's first three games and has a nice 4.4 YPC. Charles has played only 28 percent of the snaps but is averaging 5.1 YPC. Though Charles is playing less, he has carried the ball or been targeted on 31 (or 54 percent) of his 57 snaps. Anderson sits at 60 (or 41 percent) of 148 snaps. Anderson remains in the RB2 mix and Charles is more of a fringe flex who has added value in non-PPR.
Golden Tate isn't the most exciting fantasy asset, but he continues to produce as a reliable WR2 option. Tate is up to 21 receptions for 190 yards and one score on 27 targets this season. He sits 10th among wideouts in fantasy points and has finished in the top 24 at the position each of the past three seasons. Tate is handling a career-high 26 percent target share and that's unlikely to dip much moving forward, especially considering he's been at or above 23 percent three of the past four seasons. Tate is a strong WR2 in PPR.
Not a fan of PPR leagues? You may not want to look at Ty Montgomery's stat line from Sunday. Green Bay's lead back was held to 12 carries for 35 yards, but his fantasy investors were bailed out by eight receptions for 15 yards. That's right, 15 yards on eight receptions, or in PPR terms, 9.5 points. For perspective, Montgomery is only the fourth player since 1950 to produce 15 or fewer yards on eight or more receptions. Montgomery was targeted 12 times, which was three more than any of his teammates. Despite the horrid efficiency on Sunday, Montgomery has been a workhorse this season and it has helped him to the fourth-most fantasy points among running backs. He has been on the field for 89 percent of the team's snaps and pass plays. He has 35 more carries than any of his teammates and trails team leader Davante Adams by only three targets. Montgomery's 3.0 YPC isn't going to cut it, but as long as he's playing Le'Veon Bell-esque snaps, he'll be a solid strong RB1 play.
In his first game this season as the team's starter in place of C.J. Fiedorowicz (IR, concussion), Ryan Griffin impressed with five receptions for 61 yards and one touchdown on six targets. He was on the field for 57 snaps and ran 20 of 39 possible pass routes. His primary competition at the position, Stephen Anderson, played 30 snaps (15 routes) and caught one of three targets for 14 yards. Griffin's heavy usage is enough to put him safely in the TE2 mix, but he's not a quality streaming option against Tennessee this week.
Following a nondescript start to the season, T.Y. Hilton exploded for seven receptions, 153 yards and one score on nine Week 3 targets. It was Hilton's first big game of the season after posting only 106 yards on seven receptions during Weeks 1 and 2. Hilton has been on the field for all but three of the team's 98 pass plays this season and his target share (27 percent to 29 percent), YPR (15.9 to 18.5) and catch rate (59 percent to 67 percent) are actually higher than they were in 2016. The reigning NFL leader in receiving yards needs to be locked into lineups, but he'll will be in better shape following the team's tough Week 4 trip to Seattle and especially once Andrew Luck returns.
Marcedes Lewis is the latest on a lengthy list of tight ends who have put up a big week early this season. Lewis posted 62 yards and scored on three of his four receptions against the Ravens in London on Sunday. This is your heads-up to not bother with Lewis on waivers this week. The 33-year-old tight end entered the game with five targets in two games and matched that mark against the Ravens. Lewis hasn't finished as a top-30 fantasy tight end since 2012. Jacksonville put up 44 points in this game, but it's likely the Jags won't match that mark the rest of the season. This is a run-heavy offense that will continue to feature Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns and Leonard Fournette.
Three games in, I think it's safe to say Tyreek Hill is working out well as the Chiefs' clear-cut top wide receiver. Hill has caught 16 of 21 targets for 253 yards and two scores. Add 24 yards on six carries to the mix and Hill sits third among wideouts in fantasy points. Hill has been on the field for 78 percent of the team's snaps and is handling 9 percent of the carries and 27 percent of the targets. All three are up significantly from 41 percent, 6 percent and 15 percent, respectively, last season. Hill is getting the touches he needed to offset inevitable regression-to-the-mean in the touchdown department and sustain top-end fantasy production. At worst, he's a quality WR2 play.
Hunter Henry is about as inconsistent a player as you'll find in fantasy this season. The second-year tight end has bookended a pair of zero-target outings with a seven-target, 80-yard performance in Week 2. The Week 1 shutout seemed like a fluke, but it's not a good sign that Henry was held off the score sheet again in Week 3. Henry is playing 30 snaps and averaging 13 routes per game this season, both of which trail Antonio Gates (34 snaps, 24 routes). We expected a larger role for Henry this season, but he's been on the field even less than he was as a rookie. He has the upside to warrant a bench spot, but he's not a viable starter at this point.
Jared Goff was impressive on Thursday night, completing 22 of 28 passes for 292 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Though he's been much better than he was during a dismal rookie campaign, keep in mind that Goff threw for only two touchdowns during his first two games this season. Additionally, his opposition has been relatively light thus far: Indianapolis and Washington at home and San Francisco on the road. The schedule will be much tougher moving forward, with games against Jacksonville, Seattle, Arizona, the N.Y. Giants, Houston and Minnesota on tap between Week 5 and Week 12. Until we see consistent, high-end production against better defenses, Goff remains a back-end QB2. This isn't to suggest dumping them at a discount, but it's worth exploring sell-high opportunities on the likes of Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and potentially even Todd Gurley following the team's hot start.
The Dolphins were shut down by the Jets on Sunday, but DeVante Parker quietly put together his second solid game in as many outings. Parker has caught 12 of 19 passes for 161 yards and one touchdown on the season. The third-year wideout has seen nine-plus targets during each of the team's games. Despite being a game behind most everyone else, Parker sits 31st at the position in fantasy points and is one of 21 wideouts with two top-30 weeks under his belt. Parker has been on the field for 92 percent of the Dolphins' snaps and is handling 24 percent of the targets. Both are easily career highs. He's a fringe WR2 against the Saints' pushover defense this week.
Another week, another tremendous display from Minnesota wideouts Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Thielen impressed with 98 yards on five catches on Sunday, but he was upstaged by Diggs' eight-catch, 173-yard, two-touchdown afternoon. Diggs and Thielen now sit first and eighth, respectively, among wide receivers in fantasy points this season ... and that's with Case Keenum under center for two of those games. Putting your trust in Keenum is risky, but volume is king and the wide receiver duo is handling 49 percent of the team's targets on the year. It's unlikely both will finish in the top 10 this season, so feel free to entertain sell-high opportunities this week. Value Diggs as a fringe WR1 and Thielen more of a fringe WR2.
Believe it or not, the Patriots are on pace for 64 offensive touchdowns this season. For perspective, they scored 67 during that historic 2007 season in which they went 16-0. The huge production allowed both Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan a pair of touchdowns during Sunday's win against Houston. Following a slow start to the season, Cooks is suddenly fifth among wide receivers in fantasy points. Hogan has scored on three of his 10 catches and sits 11th. QB Tom Brady and TE Rob Gronkowski lead their respective positions in fantasy points and James White and Mike Gillislee are both top-25 running backs. Each of these players should be locked into weekly lineups, and Danny Amendola is also in the flex mix.
With three games in the books, it's worth taking a look at the state of New Orleans' running back committee. Unsurprisingly, Mark Ingram has been the leading man. Despite the upgrades around him on the depth chart, Ingram has been on the field for a career-high 50 percent of the Saints' offensive snaps this season. Compared to 2016, his carry share is down from 51 percent to 43 percent, but he's been on the field for more pass plays and is handling a career-high 12 percent of the targets. Ingram has yet to score a touchdown, but he has managed at least 71 yards from scrimmage in each game and sits 19th among backs in fantasy points. Ingram has registered 40 looks (carries plus targets) on 90 snaps; whereas Alvin Kamara has 27 looks on 60 snaps and Adrian Peterson 25 looks on 36 snaps. Ingram remains a viable RB2, Kamara is a shaky flex and Peterson shouldn't be anywhere close to lineups. Oh, by the way, in other Saints news, WR Willie Snead will be back from suspension this week. Make sure he's owned in all formats.
It does not appear that Paul Perkins is the answer in the Giants' backfield. Following an underwhelming rookie campaign, the 2016 fifth-round pick has accrued only 48 yards on 23 carries (2.1 YPC) and 29 yards on six receptions (4.8 YPR) this season. Perkins should obviously be nowhere close to fantasy lineups, but it's time to consider rostering the likes of Orleans Darkwa (13 carries, 53 yards, 4.1 YPC) and rookie Wayne Gallman in deeper leagues. Granted, coach Ben McAdoo's offense hasn't been kind to tailbacks, but it seems likely that a different back will get a long look in the near future. If one emerges, you could find yourself with a viable RB2 or flex option.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins returned from a two-game suspension on Sunday. The former second-round pick was limited to 32 receiving yards in his Jets debut, but it's notable that he tied for the team lead with six targets. He was on the field for 46 of the team's 59 offensive plays and ran 21 of 27 possible routes. Seferian-Jenkins was expected to play a major role following an impressive offseason and this usage confirms exactly that. Consider the 24-year-old a TE2 and make sure he's owned in your dynasty league.
Oakland took a shellacking in Washington on Sunday night, but Jared Cook put together a solid fantasy day. The veteran tight end caught four of a team-high six targets for 43 yards and one touchdown. The solid statistical day is hardly a surprise when you consider his playing time and usage during the team's first two games. Cook had totaled only 81 yards in those games, but was averaging 25 pass routes and handling a 19 percent target share. That hefty usage continued in Week 3 and confirms Cook as one of Derek Carr's top targets. Considering Oakland's high-scoring offense, Cook is solidly in the TE1 discussion.
Zach Ertz has now been targeted at least eight times during each of the Eagles' first three games this season. The heavy usage has resulted in 21 receptions on 28 targets for 245 yards and one touchdown. He trails only Rob Gronkowski in fantasy points among tight ends. Ertz entered the year fresh off back-to-back top-10 fantasy seasons, but a big boost in playing time and usage means he's well on his way to a career year. Ertz has been on the field for 90 percent of the Eagles' snaps (previous career high is 75 percent), has run a route on 82 percent of the team's pass plays (74 percent) and is handling 25 percent of the targets (19 percent). He's locked in as a strong TE1.
Martavis Bryant's return from suspension is off to a slow start, but it's not for a lack of opportunity. Bryant has been on the field for 79 percent of Pittsburgh's pass plays and has seen 18 targets this season. Despite that, he's managed no more than three catches in a game and has totaled seven catches for 135 yards and one score. He sits 45th at the position in fantasy points. On the plus side, Bryant's heavy down-field usage has picked up where it left off. His 21.8 average depth of target is tops in the league among players with at least five targets. Bryant is somewhat of a boom/bust producer, but the Steelers' passing game is better at home and he's likely to see plenty of goal line work at 6-foot-4. Fire him up again this week against Baltimore.
Pierre Garcon busted out for seven receptions for 142 yards on 10 targets against the Rams on Thursday night. Garcon has now seen 10-plus targets during two of the 49ers' first three games. He sits 21st at the position in fantasy points. Following the big game on national TV, this is a good time to consider selling high. Garcon's upcoming schedule is very tough, with Patrick Peterson likely to shadow him twice during the team's next six games. He'll also see Vontae Davis, Josh Norman, Janoris Jenkins and Richard Sherman down the stretch as well as the Jaguars' tremendous CB duo in Week 16, which is the fantasy championship for many of you.
Doug Baldwin enjoyed a breakout game in Week 2, but he's already owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues. Paul Richardson, meanwhile, scored his second touchdown in as many games and has now racked up 19 targets in three games. He's 35th at the position in fantasy points, but he is owned in 3 percent of leagues. The 2016 postseason star seems to be past his rough streak of injuries and is finally emerging into a productive player. Richardson should be on rosters in 12-team leagues and is a sneaky flex at home vs. the Colts' leaky defense this week.
Considering the underwhelming history of rookie tight ends, this shouldn't come as a surprise, but O.J. Howard has been a nonfactor in fantasy during Tampa Bay's first two games. The first-round pick has caught two of four targets for 29 yards and no scores. Howard has been on the field for 66 percent of the team's offensive snaps but has run only 30 of 77 possible pass routes. Cameron Brate, meanwhile, has been on the field for 50 percent of the snaps but has run 41 routes. He's managed six catches, 57 yards and one score on seven targets. As expected, Brate is the better fantasy play, but he is no more than a pedestrian TE2.
With all eyes on newcomers Eric Decker and Corey Davis, holdover Rishard Matthews is again operating as Marcus Mariota's top wide receiver target this season. Matthews caught a 55-yard touchdown pass against Seattle on Sunday and totaled six catches for 87 yards on a team-high 10 targets. Granted, Davis missed the game with an injury, but Matthews has now seen 24 targets in three games, including at least nine in two of those outings. He's fantasy's No. 25-scoring wide receiver. Matthews is a weekly flex option and jumps back into the WR2 conversation if Davis remains out against Houston this week.
Chris Thompson is on an absolute roll. The fifth-year scat back put up 52 receiving yards and a score in Week 1, ran for 77 yards and scored twice in Week 2 and went for 188 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 14 touches against Oakland on Sunday night. Believe it or not, he's now third among running backs in fantasy points behind only Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley. Though Thompson has been exciting, it's important to temper expectations moving forward. Thompson has accrued a grand total of 14 carries and 19 targets on the season. He's been on the field for 43 percent of the Redskins' offensive plays, which is actually down from 46 percent last season. Thompson has scored four touchdowns after entering the year with eight career scores. His 0.9 total OTD ranks 90th in the NFL and further suggests his touchdown rate is nowhere close to sustainable. Thompson is seeing enough work to warrant flex consideration, but his ceiling is that of a back-end RB2. This week is your best shot to sell high.