Daniel Dopp, Liz Loza and DJ Gallo talk life, fantasy football, pop culture and everything in between in a new weekly 'fantasy improv' column, which runs every Friday throughout the NFL season. Joe Kaiser serves as the moderator and attempts to keep things on track.
Liz: Whether it's meant moving physical locations, taking a new job (ahem!), or leaning on a community of people, the concept of home is something we've all negotiated.
It's interesting that in fantasy we often make a distinction between our "home" leagues and our professional/office/high stakes/etc. FF clubs. I think that's because our leagues of origin (if you will) just feel different. And it's that feeling that makes the accompanying drafts so wonderfully unpredictable.
This past Sunday my home league -- the one that actually inspired me to pursue a career in fantasy sports -- held its annual live draft. Despite having drafted with these fools for 15 years (12 teams, start 1 QB, half-point PPR) I am still surprised, befuddled and delighted every single round by some of their picks.
For example, Scott delivered a brilliant and passionate soliloquy about waiting on QB... and then drafted Josh Allen in the second round (20th overall) because he "just couldn't resist." That was nothing compared to the unintentional TikTok dance that Kevin (our resident Patriots' fan) busted into after securing Rhamondre Stevenson.
From a strategic point of view, however, what stuck out the most to me was how far Chris Godwin fell. Last year's WR17 overall wasn't selected until the eighth round as the 37th wideout off the board. For context, he went behind Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Thomas and Hunter Renfrow.
The reason for the value?
A mix of hesitancy regarding his ACL injury... and (here's the kicker) having just forgotten about him because he was buried in the ADP queue. When I mentioned to the league that he was likely to play in Week 1 they were largely surprised and upset with themselves for not thinking to shuffle him up.
Even if Godwin isn't fully unleashed until a month into the season (TB hosts KC in Week 4) he's still a top-30 grab at the position. So do some pre-draft list-sifting and identify the potential steals.
DJ: I have noticed the same drop for Godwin this season in "home style" leagues. Same with another receiver, Michael Thomas. I get it: he missed all of last year, had a down 2020 and Drew Brees is long gone. But Thomas is also not too far removed from being the No. 1 overall receiver in fantasy by a huge margin, which he was in 2019. (Godwin was second that year, by the way.) Seems to me there's a ton of value with Thomas at his current ADP of WR29. Same with his teammate, Alvin Kamara, going RB7. And really, the whole Saints offense. Jameis Winston is going QB19 ... even though he was QB14 in PPG last season without Michael Thomas at his disposal.
Oh, and to be clear, when I say "home style" leagues, I mean leagues that are not full of fantasy experts, NOT leagues in which delicious, home-cooked meals are served at the draft. Although I am very much in favor of those leagues, as well.
Daniel: So what I'm taking away from this is that your friends don't listen to my podcast (which hurts a little) because we've been talking about the value that is Godwin all offseason! The last three years, Godwin has been WR2, WR15 and WR7 in FPPG. He's going to be a Top15 WR on a per-game basis this year. I'm not worried about his return to form after tearing his ACL at the end of last year. He was Brady's top target, ahead of Mike Evans in 2021! It's absurd to think someone so talented goes as WR37 because he was forgotten about. I'm slow-drafting in a 10-team league with Field Yates and some of the the Homes Brewery crew out of Ann Arbor right now and Godwin came off the board with the 6.03 as WR24. This is what makes home leagues crazy!
And to DJ's point about Jameis and the Saints' offense, I feel the same, but to a lesser degree with Michael Thomas. He's a former receiving champ that's going as WR29 right now. If Thomas flops, it's not going to wreck your fantasy team because he wasn't a 1st or 2nd round investment this year. Instead, he's going at the end of the 8th round. There is so much potential value with both of these WRs. If they don't work out, it's a minimal investment and they have a legit chance to outperform their ADP.
Liz: Daniel, I humbly submit that it's about to be "our" pod. (And, yes, I've got this band of bros migrating over to ESPN... they legit have started listening to the pod... the guy who drafted Godwin actually mentioned Field's pounding the table about him... but, like me, was trying to pull a fast one. I was greedy... his timing was on point.)
Daniel: It is definitely our show now!
Kaiser: It's fun hearing about your home leagues. Do you have any traditions that make your home leagues special?
Daniel: One of the things that makes my home league special is that we draft Chris Godwin inside the top 30 WRs.
Liz: Oh, I felt that snipe!
We have one member who was forced to autodraft one year and actually won the championship. Since then he has refused to live draft -- citing "superstition" -- but has never won it again.
Daniel: My home league has a ton of fun traditions for draft day, it's just that I haven't been able to participate in them because I live in Connecticut, and Michigan is too far to commute to during the preseason. Everyone gets together at our commish Kurt van der Maas' house where there's pizza, wings, chips, soda, beer and some special alcohol that Randy brings in an unmarked container every year. It's very suspect. Then we have drinking games for the next two hours (flip cup, beer pong, cornhole, etc) to get everyone loosened up for our 4.5 hour salary cap draft.
DJ: I submit that doing a fantasy draft after hours of drinking beer and "some special alcohol that Randy brings in an unmarked container" essentially is auto-drafting. In fact, at that point I'd trust auto-draft to select my team more than myself.
Oh, and as far as home league traditions, I think my league's most enduring tradition is not being able to find a time to draft that works for everyone until we all give up and inevitably just do it online the night before the season opener at like 10:55 p.m.
Daniel: A league of procrastinating gentlemen.
And you play the Sean Connery role in this one.
DJ: I just looked and that movie (The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen) has a 17% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which is about what I would score my home league team from last season.
So your analogy holds.
Kaiser: There's no way to segue from that, so let me just ask this: are home leagues your favorite leagues? Or do you enjoy playing against other experts?
DJ: I like them both equally. But for me, the biggest difference in home leagues vs. "expert" leagues is with how you finish. If I win an expert league, I feel like the smartest and fairest lad in all the land. I beat the best of the best! But in home leagues, if I fail to win (and that happens more often than not because, well... fantasy), it's "Aren't you supposed to be some kind of expert? You don't seem too expert-y to me, pal!" Long story short: I wish my friends would stop being mean to me.
Liz: I like drafting in a home league the best because the picks -- as I mentioned earlier -- can be so random. In an expert league there seem to be fewer surprises. Everyone waits on QB, we apologize in the chat if we dare to take a backup TE, everyone reaches for Isiah Pacheco, so on and so forth.
Ultimately, I like playing in both for reasons similar to those that DJ expressed. The best part for me, though, is watching my league mates actively taking my advice. That can be (depending on the outcome) both messy and/or rewarding.
DJ: How dare you imply that I reached for a player who averaged 3.9 YPC last year at Rutgers.
Daniel: I just love winning. I don't really care who it's against! It's awesome beating all of your friends in a home league, especially ones that specifically zero in on the players you're bidding on because "there must be something Daniel knows about this guy -- he works for ESPN."
Every year I'm the target, so beating those guys is always fun. However, there's something about besting an industry expert that's extra enjoyable and validating. I have a shirt hanging in my closet that has the score of the first time I beat Matthew Berry in fantasy. I love my friends back home, but it just doesn't have quite the same oomph.
Kaiser: Looking to the season ahead, is there a player the consensus loves (or even likes) but you're out on? On the flip side, is there a player you are very high on who others aren't (your home leagues are going to love this info!)?
DJ: As a Steelers fan, I'm not supposed to say things like this in public, but... I'm a little worried that Najee Harris isn't, you know ... good. Despite leading the NFL in touches last season, he didn't have a single run longer than 23 yards until Week 17. Despite 74 receptions, he didn't have one longer than 25 yards all season and that came in Week 2. I realize a big part of that is Pittsburgh's offensive line, but shouldn't an elite back be able to break... something? Sometime? And it's not like Pittsburgh's line will be much better this season. I'm definitely not out on Harris in fantasy, but his current ADP of RB5 feels high to me. (/Pittsburgh sacrilege)
Kaiser: Throw in the (Terrible) Towel.
Daniel: I'm out on Cordarrelle Patterson. He's a former NFL first-round pick that literally never earned a deeper role on any team he's been a part of until he turned 30 years old. Not buying it. Heading into his age 31 season on a team that's going to focus on Drake London and Kyle Pitts... I don't think last year's success is at all repeatable and I prefer the upside of Dameon Pierce, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, AJ Dillon, Chase Edmonds and James Cook, all being drafted after Patterson -- and quite a bit more.
On the flip side, I love Joshua Palmer and I'm trying to grab him in every single league I'm in. He's basically free, being drafted in the 17th round of ESPN drafts as WR63... which is just unbelievable to me. Last year, the Los Angeles Chargers were the third-highest scoring fantasy offense, and unlike last year, Palmer enters this year as the WR3. Not only does he have potential standalone flex value as a bye-week fill-in, he'd easily be starter if Allen or Williams missed any time this year.
Liz: Since entering the league, David Montgomery has leveled-up his skill set and grown into a much more versatile player than he's given credit for. From a fantasy point of view, however, volume has largely buoyed his fantasy stock. He closed out 2021 top-10 in carries per game and averaged over 20 touches per contest. With Khalil Herbert continuing to impress and rookie Trestan Ebner flashing throughout the summer, Monty's workload figures to take a hit. Bake in the Bears lack offensive efficiency and Montgomery is outside of my top-20 at the position.
An RB climbing my rankings, however, is Edmonds. After being burnt by his 2021 bust in Arizona, lots of folks are letting him fall to the middle rounds of drafts. Admittedly, he's not a volume play. My dude has only recorded 20 carries twice over his four years in the league. But managers don't need Edmonds (especially if he's their RB3 or RB4) to get 25 touches per game. Not in a Kyle Shanahan inspired scheme and not with two fire field stretchers keeping boxes light. Given the recent release of Sony Michel, Edmonds' job is all the more secure. He has RB2 upside this season.
Kaiser: Lots of storylines in Week 1, from Russell Wilson facing the Seahawks to Baker Mayfield going up against the Browns. What things are you most looking forward to seeing in the opening week of the season from a fantasy standpoint?
Daniel: This one's easy. Two of my favorite players are playing in the same game: D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown. During his 11 healthy weeks before his injury, Swift was RB1 in targets, receptions and receiving yards while also being RB5 in opportunities, but that was before St. Brown came on and stole all the targets in Detroit's passing game. Which leads me to what ARSB will look like now that Swift and T.J. Hockenson will also be on the field. Last year from Week 13 on, St. Brown was WR3 behind Kupp (27.1 PPG) and Davante Adams (25.2 PPG), but he was the only guy for the Lions over that time. Neither of those players were their dominant selves with their fantasy counterpart on the field. I'm really interested to see how this works out Week 1.
DJ: I'm interested to see how the second-year quarterbacks perform, specifically Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson (if he plays). The general consensus seems to be that they'll make a big leap this season, but I need to see it first. Making the jump to an elite level isn't easy or inevitable. Don't let Daniel Dopp's ascension at ESPN fool you.
Liz: I swear I'm not being a homer... but I am super intrigued to see Trey Lance and Justin Fields face off at Soldier Field in Week 1. Personally -- even before Chicago traded up to get him -- I believed Fields to be the more talented prospect. However, the NFL and fantasy communities continue to hold up Lance as the better bet. He's certainly surrounded by elite offensive options and in a friendlier scheme, but given the Jimmy G. news... Lance's maturation process sounds super suspect.
Follow Liz Loza (@LizLoza_FF), Daniel Dopp (@DanielDopp) and DJ Gallo (@DJGalloETC) on Twitter. Liz Loza and Daniel Dopp's fantasy football rankings appear every week during the season.