How is Shoelace doing this?
Denard Robinson has four straight games of strong results playing for a bad Jacksonville Jaguars team: 72 carries for 389 yards and four TDs. Either we're seeing the beginning of a seriously improbable RB career that will establish Robinson as a speed back to be reckoned with, or we'll look back on this small sample size and say, "Oh yeah, remember when that hybrid dude with the funny nickname went bananas for a month?"
I tried to have an open mind when I set out to write this article and evaluate Robinson's film, but I leaned toward the "fluke" explanation. Remember Evan Royster's big two games at the end of 2011, Bryce Brown's back-to-back 180-yard games in '12, and Bobby Rainey's sweet skein last year? These names don't share many common traits, other than to illustrate that it's possible for so-so players to achieve big results in a limited time frame, especially for stinky teams. Obviously that doesn't mean Robinson is doomed for regression. It simply means such a regression is possible.
I re-watched every one of Robinson's touches and targets in '14, and here's what I saw:
What I like about Robinson
Acceleration: This is his best trait. He has Road Runner legs. He doesn't seem to be exerting all that much effort and his upper body stays kind of rigid and upright, but his legs disappear in a circular whirl. He gets to and through the hole -- when there is one -- really fast. There's no buildup speed here. He's not a crazily sudden athlete (more on that in a bit), but he gets to his top gear in a flash.
Weaving elusiveness: In traffic, Robinson is a fascinating runner. His top speed is fast, if not blindingly so, but I'd say on 70 to 80 percent of his runs he never actually gets going super-fast. Instead, he's instinctive in traffic: He seems to weave in the "correct" direction to help him elude tacklers alarmingly often, which indicates strong open-field vision. This is a hard thing to illustrate without motion, but here's a still shot from Week 7 against the Cleveland Browns:
No single move on this 13-yard gain is a stunner, but Shoelace just shows nice sense. At the line, he cuts inside to avoid Paul Kruger, who's standing up the left tackle. Once he's past Kruger, Robinson sees the middle is plugged and there's a lane to his left, so he heads that direction and gets up to speed quickly. Allen Robinson is engaged with Joe Haden, which gives Shoelace a choice of cutting toward the middle of the field or the sideline. He takes a step toward the middle but sees safety Tashaun Gipson zooming toward him. So he weaves back outside again -- not having made a particularly sharp cut in the entire run -- and goes out of bounds after gaining several extra yards. He's a smart runner.
Surprising sturdiness: Shoelace is 5-foot-10 and 199 pounds. He's not unequivocally undersized, though lead RBs who are that tall usually weigh more. There are exceptions. (Jamaal Charles comes to mind.) Anyway, to look at Robinson's frame in the uniform is to understand why many viewed him as a wideout prospect. He's not thick, but he can take a hit. I'm thinking of a first-quarter carry in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals, when he got caught up in a mess of bodies at the line and took a glancing blow, but kept his balance and waited for the seas to part, whereupon he scampered for 39 yards. And the most recent run we've seen from Robinson was a garbage-time TD against the Dallas Cowboys Week 10 in London, when he got a carry from the 1, took a big hit from safety J.J. Wilcox, and shrugged it off to score.
What I don't like about Robinson
The size really isn't elite: Let's just clean this up. It would be a mistake to say because he took a goal-line hit from a safety, Robinson is ready to be a between-the-tackles grinder. I'm remembering a direct shot he took from Geno Atkins, and when that happened, Shoelace just crumpled. As he should! I'm impressed by Robinson's toughness relative to his size, but the Jags would be wise not to have him take too many Atkins-esque shots. If they really believe he could be their RB of the future, they'll be tempted to pair him with a bigger guy (Toby Gerhart?), which could make him a perennially vultured fantasy option.
He isn't sudden: This is the big negative I see. Moments ago, I compared Robinson's size to Charles'. He also fits the physical mold of players such as Chris Johnson, C.J. Spiller, Ronnie Hillman and Jahvid Best. The difference with those players is that they are/were quick-twitch jitterbugs who can/could make defenders look foolish with sudden changes of direction. Robinson doesn't make folks miss that way. He can surprise a tackler trying to get him from the side; there are numerous cases on film where someone dove at a bad angle or reached where he expected Shoelace to be, only to find he was further down the field. But Robinson doesn't feature much lateral quickness, the kind that makes defenders fall down. As a result, sometimes we see him get one-on-one with defensive backs in space, and if he's not already running for daylight near top speed, he almost never escapes. There are many examples of this on tape; here's one from Week 4 against the San Diego Chargers:
This is a reverse pitchout, where Blake Bortles makes a fake-handoff step to his right, then swivels around and pitches to Robinson going the other way. It catches most of the Chargers' defense going in the wrong direction, leaving two defenders (who lined up on the defensive right side) to make a play. Allen Robinson blocks Jahleel Addae, sealing him away from the sideline. That leaves corner Shareece Wright to tackle Shoelace. In this kind of situation, Jamaal Charles leaves that tackler in the dust with a crazy move that has you texting your friend. Robinson basically decelerates, gives a half-hearted move to the outside, and goes down easily after an ankle tackle.
Summary
Robinson is, by his very definition, a unique case. He's a college quarterback drafted to play receiver who finds himself an unquestioned starting runner. His acceleration and open-field vision have helped guide him to a lot of nice runs: 32 of his 100 carries have gone for 5 yards or more, and that's behind an offensive line we'll charitably call "in development." But while he's done some damage on straight-ahead, between-the-tackles running, the Jags have tailored their calls to his strengths, sending him toward the edge a lot and running traps and zones that ask him to sprint toward the sideline and then cut upfield outside the numbers, if possible.
This doesn't tend to be a recipe for long-term success. And because Robinson isn't big or make-you-miss elusive (rather, he's outsprint-you elusive), I have a hard time imagining a long career where he remains someone's true feature back. Don't get me wrong, I like him. I think he can be an important player on a good NFL team. He's smart and instinctive, and he's got a raw commodity (speed) that's always in vogue. Eventually, though, my guess is that he'll probably become a platoon back with a bigger RB. Otherwise, I'd worry that his lack of suddenness would result in big hits from big defenders, and his NFL life span would be short.
In the meantime, of course, the Jaguars aren't good and seem committed to giving him starter's touches, so you should feel great about using Robinson as a fantasy starter as long as the gravy train keeps rolling. This week, against an Indianapolis Colts defense that just allowed a historic night to Jonas Gray, fire him up and hope for the best.