So, you are a team that is looking for a free-agent pass-rusher. Do you want an established star who just helped lead his team to a Super Bowl but is in the twilight of his career? Or a younger sack artist entering his prime who has put up numbers but has a more limited track record?
We created a sacks projection model to help with this debate. We're using a similar model to this one, which fueled our preseason sack projections last year -- but without any of the team-specific elements (like how often their defensive playcaller blitzes or a team's win total).
The model is based largely on each player's past performances -- from sacks and sack rates to pass rush win rate and pass rush get off (metrics that use NFL Next Gen Stats player-tracking data).
This results in the projected mean of 2022 regular-season sacks for each player. Using these numbers, we ranked the top projected free-agent pass-rushers. If the numbers strike you as low, keep in mind these are averages of an entire range of outcomes -- including injuries.
Let's dive into the top five projected free-agent pass-rushers -- plus other notables, including one player who, as of Tuesday, is no longer considered a free agent.