The 2024 NRL season is set to be tight, with plenty of player movement during the offseason as clubs hope to turn their fortunes around or maintain their dominance. Tipping eight winners each weekend is going to be near impossible, so each week we'll give you some extra help with three standout games.
The sure thing
The Dragons fooled the world with their first up victory over the Titans. We were led to believe that they, under new coach Shane Flanagan, had found their groove to upset one of the premiership's most likely improvers, under their new coach Des Hasler. Turns out the Titans are not as good as everyone thought and the Dragons have lost both games since, firstly thumped by the Dolphins, and then destroyed by the Cowboys, despite starting strongly.
The Sea Eagles looked very sharp in their first two victories over the Rabbitohs and Roosters and looked set to beat the Eels on the weekend, before being run down and having a bit of luck go against them. They will be absolutely filthy they let those two points slip and there is no way they will miss out on another victory here, even with the long journey down to Wollongong.
The clash of the halves between the Dragons' Kyle Flanagan and Ben Hunt up against Manly's Daly Cherry-Evans and Luke Brooks will be intriguing, but it is in the forwards that the Sea Eagles should dominate. The momentum they achieve will allow Cherry-Evans and Brooks to bring their ultimate weapon, Tom Trbojevic, into play. If things go to plan for the Sea Eagles, it could be a long and painful evening for the Dragons.
Round 4 sure thing: Sea Eagles
The toss of the coin
Sydney Roosters vs. Penrith Panthers, Allianz Stadium, Thursday March 28, 8pm (AEDT)
This was always going to be "the toss of the coin" game, with the Panthers having a slight edge over the Roosters, and then Nathan Cleary's hamstring injury was announced. Suddenly the coin is looking more likely to land Roosters side up, but it won't be easy for the home side, even with Cleary sitting in the stands.
Last season when Cleary had his hamstring issues, Jack Cogger stepped admirably into the role and the Panthers hardly skipped a beat. Cogger of course is now in Newcastle, but the systems that allowed his smooth integration are still in operation at the Panthers, and the whole team will be primed and ready to get on with the job, with or without Cleary.
The Roosters go into this game having lost just the one game this year against the Sea Eagles at Brookvale. The Panthers lost first up to the Storm, but have started to look more like the reigning premiers with wins over the Eels and Broncos. The Roosters played some sublime attacking football against the Rabbitohs last week, with captain James Tedesco leading the way, but the commitment of Souths has been questioned.
The Roosters genuinely feel they have the team to win the premiership this year, and to do so they will have to beat the best. It promises to be another monumental contest, with a bounce of the ball deciding the winner. I'm tipping the Roosters over a Cleary-less Panthers.
Toss of the coin game winner: Roosters
The roughie
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs. Canberra Raiders, PointsBet Stadium, Sunday March 31, 6:15pm (AEDT)
Having correctly tipped the Tigers to win in last week's "roughie", I am returning to the well that is the possibly overrated Sharks outfit. They were not only beaten by the Tigers last week, they were humiliated, out-enthused, out-worked and out-played across the park.
Remarkably, the Raiders go into this game as the outsiders according to the bookmakers, having lost their first game of the year last week against the Warriors. Ricky Stuart will have worked hard all week on eradicating the errors that cost them dearly in New Zealand, and they'll be fired up in front of the hostile Cronulla crowd.
Round 4 roughie: Raiders
Click here for a full guide to Round 4 of the 2024 NRL season