The key to a successful betting week for the first major of the year could come down to a break in the tee times, which means handicapping the weather. As we recently saw at the Valero Texas Open, any player who started early on Thursday was forced to play in 25-30 mph winds. Most of those golfers surrendered an average of 5.6 strokes to the field versus those who had a much easier time in the afternoon due to less wind.
The early forecast calls for rain each day at Augusta National, with thunderstorms on and off. We've seen this scenario too many times, and didn't cash a ticket due to a break in tee times. Some players may be forced to play in the rain, while others may get a break and play after a storm in soft and benign conditions. It makes for a tricky handicap, and I loathe handicapping the weather, but it will be a big factor this week.
As we have seen on TV and heard from reporters at Augusta National, the golf course is already very green and lush, and with rain most certainly to fall during the tournament, soft conditions will make it play extremely long. Bombers like Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and J.B. Holmes should separate themselves from the rest of the field.
We usually fire away at this event and bet more matchups, future book odds, long shots and props than any other major. However, it's important to consider current form. For over 20 years there was just one tournament between the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the year's first major. Last year and this year there were two tournaments -- the Valero Texas Open and the Shell Houston Open. Many of the top players would play in Arnie's event, take a week off to rest and prepare for Augusta. Now, looking at a form chart, most of the field and many top players, by the time they tee it up on Thursday won't have played a competitive round in 17 days!
However, the sportsbooks always make mistakes, and we must take advantage of some of the odds and pairings.
Here are my selections for the best value plays at the year's first major: