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Knightmare's AFL Draft Wrap: Jy Simpkin still a first-round chance despite broken leg

Each week, ESPN.com.au AFL draft expert Christopher Doerre - aka Knightmare - casts his eye over the country's best junior footballers to give readers an early insight into the next generation of AFL stars.

As well as attending live games, Doerre pores through match vision, analyses the stats and talks to industry sources to ensure he can offer the most insightful draft analysis.

Aside from the weekly wrap, Doerre will also unveil his power rankings at the end of each month, starting from April.

And as we get closer to November's national draft, Doerre will also predict who goes where with his annual phantom draft.

Player focus

Despite recently breaking his leg, likely first-round selection Jy Simpkin will still be one of the most talked-about players in the lead-up to November's national draft. He is expected to miss most, if not all, of the remainder of the season, certainly the national under-18 championships.

However, as one of the classier ball users in this year's draft pool, he still has the potential to be a value pick if he slides as a result of his injury.

Simpkin's sole game in the TAC Cup this year was in the Murray Bushrangers' opening match of the season - a 68-point win against Bendigo. Simpkin was named second best on ground after teammate Will Brodie in managing 18 disposals and four goals, three behinds in an explosive game off a half-forward flank.

Also notable was Simpkin's performance for the AIS against VFL outfit Werribee, in another game where he proved among the most impressive players. The AIS games against VFL teams are a great opportunity for the best under-18 talent to prove themselves against more mature bodies, and typically is a great indicator as to whether they are ready to play at the next level and what sort of impact they may be able to have against stronger competition.

Simpkin started the first quarter for AIS with a chasedown tackle, which won him a free kick for holding the ball. Minutes later he showed some impressive second and third tackling efforts, offering a real intensity around the ball, giving AIS an early lift that helped them get off to a strong start.

In the second half, Simpkin's offensive hurt factor shone, which is where typically he does his damage.

At the end of the third term, Simpkin demonstrated outstanding vision and execution, finding a team-mate inside 50 on his own, who finished for the goal.

Simpkin made one of the more eye-catching plays of the game midway through the final quarter - running onto a stoppage, winning first possession of the ball and taking everyone on with his run, bursting away from the stoppage and running for 25m before kicking it forward.

Towards the end of the final quarter in a final eye-catching play, he showed great composure under pressure, executing a perfectly heighted pass to key forward Josh Battle inside 50m.

Simpkin's footskills, composure, decision-making ability and vision, to go with his pace and scoreboard impact, is what makes him such a desirable draft prospect this year, as someone who only needs a few touches to have a meaningful impact on a game.

Analysis

While his draft position will in part come down to his recovery from injury, it is clear based on the impact Simpkin can have on a game that he will be a highly desirable prospect who will remain in the first-round mix.

He has all the tricks with ball in hand and offers good effort going both ways and shows a willingness to tackle and pressure. The next step in his development will be to become a more prolific ball winner and start to push through the midfield more.

Through the TAC Cup, he has never had a game of 25 disposals or more, which relatively speaking for someone who projects to play a half-forward/wing role at AFL level, isn't enough and will be an area of required growth.

To help Simpkin develop further ball-winning ability, he will need to put some more size onto his still developing 182cm, 72kg frame, so that he can win the ball more easily against stronger bodies at the next level.

Knightmare's draft power rankings

Victorian prospect watch

Staying on the subject of injured players, Geelong Falcons star Alex Witherden broke his leg playing for Geelong College on Saturday and is out for the season. Witherden may still be a first-round draft chance given how strongly he performed in back end of 2015 and how well he started this season in his two TAC Cup games.

Witherden is a 186cm half-back flanker who most stands out with his ability to set up the play from the back half, offering great penetration and precision kicking.

Tom De Koning, a 199cm bottom age talent, dominated in the absence of star key forward Joshua Battle (due to school football commitments) with nine goals and eight marks (three contested) as Dandenong's go-to target inside 50m in their 99-point win over Northern. De Koning is the son of former Footscray big man Terry. De Koning in a few games this year has caught the eye with his contested marking ability at his height, taking some commanding grabs and demonstrating his strong hands overhead. He looks like an early draft chance for 2017 and is one of several appealing key forwards to watch for next season.

Andrew McGrath had a breakout game with 44 disposals, 19 tackles and 14 clearances, leading the way in Sandringham's win over Gippsland. McGrath has this season shown his ability on the outside with his run and classy ball use, so moving into the midfield and having a game like this is a real eye-opener. Few junior footballers have the ability to play both outside and inside the contest to a high level, but McGrath may be one of those rare few this year which greatly increases his appeal as a draft prospect.

Eastern forward Joshua Begley continues to mount case for draft selection with a strong five-goal, nine-mark performance. The 187cm, 87kg, strong marking forward has also kicked bags of six and three goals in his other two games this season and will prove to be a player to watch over the second half of the year.

Bottom-age talent Jaidyn Stephenson played his first game of the season and also showed great promise for Eastern with four goals and four behinds. Stephenson showed substantial promise during the 2015 TAC Cup finals as a 188cm, livewire forward who brings a great energy to the contest and is a threat both overhead and at ground level. Stephenson is instantly recognisable with his long, blonde mullet.

Remaining on the subject of mullets. Unique talent and NAB AFL Academy player Jarrod Korewha played his best game of the season so far for North Ballarat with 26 disposals and a goal. Korewha has a distinct look with his long, black locks and his game is just as unique at 192cm with freakish ground level ability, mobility and height. It is difficult to identify what Korewha's best position is. Further to this his impact from game to game has been inconsistent to open the season, so while his sizable talent is obvious, he will need to start putting forward strong performances more consistently in order to get drafted.

Hugh McCluggage again performed strongly for North Ballarat with 30 disposals. Partner in crime William Drew also put his stamp on the game with 25 disposals, 14 tackles and one goal in North Ballarat's win.

Geelong Falcons 186cm half forward Pat Dowling has had a strong month and continues to improve with a five goal performance in the Falcons win over Western.

South Australian prospect watch

SA under-18s

Norwood ruckman Peter Ladhams led the way for Norwood in their win over Central Districts with a commanding 25 disposals, 16 hit-outs, five marks and five goals. The disposal and goal numbers for Ladhams will capture the attention of recruiters and may see him move up draft boards with clubs increasingly valuing ruckmen who can find the footy around the ground and push forward and kick goals. This season there are several strong ruck prospects with Jordan Sweet and Jeremy Goddard also looking like potentially draftable players.

SA reserves

Ben Jarman (son of Darren) contributed well in North Adelaide's win over Sturt with 22 disposals. Continuing to mount his case as a possible father-son selection for either Adelaide or Hawthorn.

Lightly framed 179cm Sturt midfielder Steven Slimming also continues to contribute well in the reserves with 21 disposals.

Jonty Inglis in his first game at reserves level, coming up from the under-18s also performed very well with 21 disposals and a goal for West Adelaide

West Australian prospect watch

WA colts

Strong-bodied Swan Districts midfielder Joshua Cipro (186cm, 86kg) performed strongly with 32 disposals and nine inside 50s in their loss to Perth.

East Fremantle 177cm goal sneak Ambrose Ryan provided a spark up forward with 23 disposals, 10 marks, six inside 50s and two goals (from five scoring shots). Ambrose has 10 goals and 11 behinds on the season and will want to straighten up in front of goal.

For Claremont, 183cm midfielder Matthew Guelfi was named best afield with 28 disposals, seven tackles and eight inside 50s. Guelfi has put together a string of strong performances over the past three weeks and has been one of Claremont's most important midfielders in the early portion of the season.

Likely West Coast father-son selection Jake Waterman continued to hit the scoreboard for Claremont with another bag of five goals taking his tally up to 17 goals from five games.

Division two states (Tasmania, Northern Territory, NSW/ACT, Queensland and Northern Academy) prospects watch

The division two under-18 championships began on Friday when Brandon Parfitt again starred with a best-on-ground performance against Tasmania, again displaying his energy and intensity around the contest.

For NSW/ACT in their win over Queensland, 198cm key forward Todd Marshall led the way with four goals. On Wednesday, the AFL revealed GWS had lost access to Marshall as an academy prospect. That means Marshall is now available to all clubs on draft day with bids no longer necessary.

Also performing strongly for NSW/ACT was GWS academy midfielder Kobe Mutch who led the possession count with 31. Mutch consistently through the TAC Cup this season has found the ball with 29-disposal, 35-disposal and 44-disposal games so far this season. Mutch's draft stocks continue to rise with every game and Mutch looks like one of several likely first-round selections for GWS via their academy.

Top-age Sydney academy small forward Matt Wilson continues his strong form in the NEAFL with four goals and 17 disposals after a five-goal, 18-disposal performance last week. With continued strong play and improvement, Wilson will surely receive serious consideration from Sydney in November's national draft.