After being blitzed by Carlton in a GMHBA Stadium boilover back in Round 3, Geelong looked every bit an old and slow team during a Blues scoring avalanche that lasted three quarters.
Despite a frenetic last-quarter comeback, the Cats fell short by two points to slump to a 1-2 record to start the AFL season.
Eight days later, Chris Scott's men shut the gates on the Demons, holding on for a 47-44 win in what remains arguably the season's biggest snoozefest. It was far from glamorous but it was four desperately needed points that appeared to awaken the Cats' team defence from its slumber.
Including that victory over Melbourne, Geelong have rattled off seven wins from their past nine, putting the clamps on their opposition in conceding a miserly 45.5 points per game.
The Cats' seemingly watertight defensive structure -- No. 3 in the league for least points against behind West Coast and Melbourne, although the Eagles and Dees have played one less game -- is making rival coaches ponder the question: How do you score against the Cats?
Structure and discipline
Geelong play a slow brand of football on offence. They methodically move the ball from side to side until they find an opening and then attack with precision. This patient approach means that in the flow of play, Geelong are almost always in a position to maintain numbers behind the play and recover defensively.
The defensive set-up was at its miserly best during their 59-point win over St Kilda in Round 11.
Like against the Demons, the Cats were able to slow down their opposition's ball movement. With a veteran-laden squad that is as well drilled as any, Geelong, when defending, look to suck the life out of their opponents and force them to kick to a contest. The Cats' zone rolls with any movement and the Saints -- despite being one the league's quickest teams -- couldn't find a way through.
1) Kick in defence: This is an example of the Cats ideal kick in set up. They force St.Kilda deep into the pocket with a short kick and force them to either risk a turnover inside or kick long to a contest. More often than not teams take the long option. A win for the Cats. pic.twitter.com/P75cCOJgPE
— Kane Pitman (@KanePitman) August 20, 2020
The vision on the above kick-in situation gives a bird's eye view of what the player in possession is presented with up the ground. Hunter Clark looks inboard with darting eyes for an attacking option before kicking long down the line to a contest.
Geelong forces opponents to assess risk/reward on the fly: Attempt a risky corridor kick (where a turnover potentially results in an easy scoring opportunity), or kick long down the line and be satisfied with a stoppage and hope for a surge through major traffic.
Both options are advantage Geelong.
2) Rolling zone: On this occasion you can see the urgency with which the Saints are trying to move the ball, they just simply run out of space. Geelong are happy to concede a short to the boundary line because it ultimately leads to a long kick and a turnover. pic.twitter.com/pJzLKa9NpL
— Kane Pitman (@KanePitman) August 20, 2020
In the above situation, the Saints were able to work the ball to centre wing before ultimately being throttled by the Geelong zone.
Once again, the behind the ground vision shows the Cats' defenders shuffling in unison with each kick, forcing the Saints wide and into a low percentage inside 50 entry that ends with an uncontested mark to Mark O'Connor.
Coming into the game St Kilda had kicked 32.1 from 10 games within 15 meters of goal. Against the Cats they didn't have a single shot from that range.
The Cats successfully slowed the game down and as a result dictated the entire contest on their terms from siren to siren.
The Trend
Unlike most teams, Scott backs his squad's ability to score without taking unnecessary risks with the ball.
The Cats are ranked No. 1 in the league for marks and No. 3 for uncontested possessions as they surgically move the ball from side to side, up and back until they find a crack in the opposition zone.
There's only one way to flip the script on Geelong - pressure. The Cats haven't lost many games, but the four defeats are enough to form a trend.
Champion Data records scores against in five different zones: Defensive 50, defensive midfield, centre bounce, attacking midfield and forward 50.
Geelong's four losses have resulted in their highest opposition score from defensive midfield - that is the space between the defensive 50 arc and the centre line. During the losses to Carlton (39.2 percent), Collingwood (36.8), West Coast (17.8) and GWS (17.1), Geelong's opponents found a way to launch a significant percentage of scores from the Cats' defensive midfield. In their eight wins, the average is just 7.5 percent.
Let's revisit that Round 3 game against Carlton:
3) Bring the ball to ground: Geelong's 4 losses have coincided with the highest % of oppo scores from the DEF MID position. If you restrict Geelong's short chip and mark game and force them into surge offence you increase the chances of the zone being out of position on turnover. pic.twitter.com/HM8YB3rYsH
— Kane Pitman (@KanePitman) August 20, 2020
Almost 40 percent of Carlton's scores came from the defensive midfield that night, with this Tom Stewart kick-in a prime example of why extreme pressure is vital against the Cats.
Stewart can't find a free man in the corridor and instead kicks long to a contest - a win for the Blues, who then force the ball to the ground and the Cats' structure quickly becomes unorganised as they try surge the ball forward. Tom Hawkins is unable to take a clean mark and a resulting turnover by hand leaves Geelong completely out of position in the scramble.
Carlton capitalise on the error and find a rare one-on-one inside 50 as a result.
Let's contrast that kick-in with an eerily similar situation against St Kilda and look at the result:
4) What happens if you don't bring the ball to ground?:
— Kane Pitman (@KanePitman) August 20, 2020
This is an almost identical kick in scenario to the one in example three. This time St.Kilda allow Tom Stewart to play on and Gryan Miers a chest mark. The result? A Geelong goal down the other end. pic.twitter.com/Q4KpEefMnv
In allowing Stewart to play on, and then Gryan Miers to take an uncontested chest mark, the Saints are opened up for a Geelong scoring surge that results in a shot on goal.
Not surprisingly, the Saints' lack of pressure that evening resulted in just 5.9 percent of their scores coming from the all-critical defensive midfield zone.
In Round 7, Collingwood found similar success to Carlton from the defensive midfield zone, racking up 36.8 percent of their scores from that part of the ground in their win over Geelong:
5) Force the Cats to make a decision: Geelong once again surge the ball forward rather than surgically work their way up the field. A rushed Dangerfield kick ends in a turnover and Collingwood get what nobody gets against Geelong...a man free behind the defence. pic.twitter.com/syaviWz2sY
— Kane Pitman (@KanePitman) August 20, 2020
Similar to the first clip, Geelong are forced to move the ball at ground level under immense pressure and this time the turnover results in Taylor Adams getting out the back of the Geelong defence for a shot on goal.
Against the Saints, Geelong took 100 marks and used the ball at 77 percent efficiency, while against the Blues and Pies, those numbers cratered to an average of 56 marks at 66 percent efficiency.
Admittedly, it's a small sample size but those examples give a basic illustration of how the Cats can be taken down.
Centre Bounce Concern?
Geelong rank No. 1 in the AFL for clearances, averaging 34.2 per game.
With Patrick Dangerfield, Cam Guthrie and Mitch Duncan in All-Australian form, the on-ball brigade generally like their chances out of the middle. But it's a risky play because no team in the AFL gives up a higher percentage of scores from the centre bounce, according to Champion Data.
Similar to the midfield turnovers that leave the Cats' back six isolated, the much discussed 6-6-6 rule would surely not be a favourite of Harry Taylor and Co.
While St Kilda found themselves tangled in the Geelong straightjacket around the ground, they were able to generate 58.8 percent of their scores when the 6-6-6 rule was in place. Gold Coast managed a Geelong opponent season-high 59.6 percent of scores from centre bounce, while Hawthorn rounded out the top three with 40.4 percent.
Geelong's average margin of victory in those three games was 52.3 points - in part due to their combined 40-28 demolition job out of the centre.
Much has been made of Dangerfield's time up forward over the past few weeks but when finals football rolls around expect him to be at the coalface with Duncan and Guthrie. Dangerfield holds a centre bounce win differential of +11 (188 attended), Guthrie is +12 (138) and Duncan is a staggering +17 (69) while Joel Selwood is breaking even (168).
Perhaps the most intriguing number on the list is the enigmatic Rhys Stanley, who has for so long bounced in and out of AFL teams throughout his career with the Saints and Cats. Stanley is +15 (100) and could quietly hold the key to another Geelong premiership.
Make no mistake, the Cats' backline has looked vulnerable from centre breaks. The Geelong coaching staff would be aware of the numbers and are playing the math game - shut down scoring opportunities in general play and back the stars to win in out of the middle and you almost certainly win the game.
The Finals Acid Test
The Cats appear to be a well-oiled machine, perfectly in sync and ready to peak at the right time of year.
"We've been working on this for the last couple years now and It's probably only really showing now," Brandon Parfitt said on a Zoom call during the week.
With Gary Ablett, Luke Dahlhaus and a wealth of hungry players rotating in and out of the side, Geelong look poised for another tilt.
The Cats have already shocked many by once again rising to the top in another home and away season, but the finals questions will linger.
Those questions include:
-How much of their recent success has come by virtue of facing fatigued opposition that have failed to bring the required pressure to get the ball out of the Cats' hands?
-How will Geelong's precise ball movement hold up with seven-day breaks are back in the fold with the season on the line?
-Do the Cats have a plan B if they are getting beat out of the middle?
These are the questions that will give the opposition hope and keeps Cats fans anxiously awaiting October finals football.