Every Wednesday of the 2022 season, ESPN will combine with Champion Data to provide an in-depth analysis on a particular hot topic in the AFL.
So, your team is 20 points up and things are looking dandy? Get your finger nails prepared because they're about to be chewed to the beds.
Season 2022 is still relatively in its infancy, but already the impact of 'momentum' seems rife, and having the mental edge over your opponent through the form of goal spurts and capitalising on a sporadic purple patch during a game appears to be paramount.
It's a theme that serves as a far cry to the game plans of old, and makes what was once players instinctively sticking to a coach's steadfast structures seem penny wise but pound foolish.
Footy is a game of moments, and those sides that identify a shift in momentum and deploy tactics accordingly will find themselves in advantageous positions more often than not.
This is true in both an attacking sense -- being able to control the tempo and keep an open forward structure -- and in a defensive sense - reacting swiftly and having the mechanisms in place to minimise scoreboard damage coming the other way.
There are several reasons why the complexion of a game experiences such drastic changes including fitness and training habits, on-field evolution and its more noticeable 'power' athletes, and of course polished tactics and education around how and when to adapt throughout the course of a 120-minute match.
It was comebacks galore in Round 3 and there appeared to be more momentum swings than usual. The clash between Collingwood and Geelong is a great data sample; the Pies didn't take advantage of their first-half dominance and trailed at half time with 4.11 on the board, but they replied with a whopping nine-goal premiership quarter, led by 30 points at the last change of ends and the four points looked inexorable.
But Geelong completely took control -- and dominated the key statistical categories like contested ball, clearances and inside 50s -- by kicking eight unanswered goals and saluting by 13 points in an incredible comeback.
It tells us that the Pies were unable to take full advantage of the momentum when it was running their way and failed to arrest it when the Cats had it in their favour.
"We knew it was coming, we knew they were going to be a lot more aggressive through the corridor and play a really attacking, mark-play-on style. It's one thing to know it's coming but it's another thing to try and stop it," Collingwood coach Craig McRae said post-game after his side was overrun by the Cats' fourth-quarter avalanche.
"The momentum shifts - it's [important to make] the most of them."
We also saw a 10-goal streak from St Kilda who overpowered Richmond at Marvel, and the Hawks kick seven of the last eight goals (after conceding seven of the first eight) against Carlton.
To the naked eye it appeared those teams had an irresistible impulse and urge to attack at all costs, and like paper over rock, it's that style that proves formidable compared to an opposing side put under pressure and trying to halt the onslaught.
But while it seems these rapid goal streaks are more common in 2022, the stats tell us otherwise.
In the first three rounds alone, teams have kicked three or more successive goals 88 times, which is the sixth-highest count we've witnessed since 2001. We've also seen a side get on a run of seven goals 10 times (the second-highest count in the last 22 seasons), but an eight-goal spurt has happened just three times, which is only the 14th most in over two decades.
Momentum and runs of goals isn't all that ground-breaking, and its swings in four quarters of footy will always be prevalent.
It's nothing new, so why is understanding it more important than ever? Because now, what was once considered a 'safe' leading margin is almost always under threat.
Granted we only have 27 completed games to assess, but comebacks are more common now than ever.
A 20-point lead has been held by teams on 32 occasions so far this season, but 43.8% of the time those leads were surrendered, a number as high as it's been in a decade. There have been nine times in 2022 (28.1%) where a team trailing by 20 points has come back to win the game which is by far the highest comeback rate in 16 years.
So what does it all mean? That while goal streaks are no more common than in previous years, 20-point margins are no longer safe and teams stay in the contest for longer, which has in-turn created more exciting football.
Is 30 points safe? Perhaps so for now, although it's a margin that has been clawed back three times in 13 matches - a ratio that is much higher than any season dating back to 2013, so watch this space...
The equation is actually a simple one: In the past five seasons, the team that scores 100 points before their opponent wins 100% of the time (only 50 out of 1,949 occasions since 2005 has a team reached 100 points and lost).
But, more alarmingly, you're far less likely to win if you're the team that reaches 50 or 75 points first. Beating your opponent to the half-century should net you a win just 70.4% of the time in 2022 which is a starkly inferior win-rate compared to 16 years worth of data (94% in 2020). The same can be said about the 75-point marker, which this season gives teams a win probability of 73.9%.
To contrast, in 2020, 76 out of 76 teams that were first to reach 75 points in a game won, while it's a win percentage that before this year hadn't dropped below 85% dating back to 2005.
Clearly it's never been more important for a team -- from its coaches to its players -- to keep the foot down and take advantage when it has control of the play.
One thing is for real in 2022. Don't feel complacent if your team looks like it has the upper hand. And in a season that looks as open and tight as it's ever been, the many stats that have long underpinned AFL as we know it might not be what defines a club's fate.
'Momentum' -- physical or psychological -- still has a big role to play.