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AFL Round Table: What's the ceiling for Carlton in 2022? Biggest issue in the game right now?

Our AFL experts tackle some of the burning questions ahead of Round 4, including how far we think the Blues can go in 2022, the biggest issue currently in the game and how Port Adelaide can get back on track.


What's the ceiling for Carlton in 2022?

Rohan Connolly: Not sure there is one, really. "Ceilings" and "windows" in the AFL are a bit of an anachronism now, I think, remembering that in the past five years we've had two sides come from outside the eight the previous season to win premierships. I don't think the Blues can go that far, but I wouldn't be speechless if they did given the right circumstances and a bit of luck. They really have been impressive, backline very solid, midfield a much deeper proposition with the arrival of Cerra and Hewett, and they look really dangerous up forward with McKay and Curnow, plus some good small pressure forwards.

Jake Michaels: Go back and listen to our pre-season predictions and big calls on the ESPN Footy Podcast, I said the Blues were heading for at least a preliminary final berth in 2022 and am more than happy to stand by that after three wins from three games. All of a sudden Carlton looks to have a complete midfield with half a dozen top-end players who can rotate through the centre square, that's something I look at first when determining the quality of a side. Two great key forwards and an All-Australian calibre fullback also help! Not saying they're on track to win the flag but they're certainly a contender.

Matt Walsh: Three weeks in, and they're 3-0, with wins over a Grand Finalist from last year and a Richmond side which has haunted them for years. Would 'old Carlton' have lost to the Hawks on Sunday? I get the feeling they would have. There's a sense of composure building in this side, and while they've had to hold their nerve now for two weeks in a row, I think that counts for something as well. With Gold Coast and Port coming up, 5-0 is on the cards, and finals is more than likely. Their ceiling, well it's a tall one, but the flag. I think a better question is: "Where is (or should be) their floor this season?"

Jarryd Barca: I've been bullish about the Carlton list for a long time and finally it looks like it's delivering on its potential. What's the ceiling? Well, the sky is the limit! They have what I think is a top three key forward pairing in the league, an elite defense with great balance between key talls and rebounders, and absurd midfield depth which includes Brownlow-calibre players in Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh. They're not perfect and their second-half collapse against the Hawks tells us that, but they're exciting to watch and have enough weapons around the field that tell me they're ready to strike.

What's the biggest issue in the AFL right now?

RC: Loud-mouthed egomaniacal club presidents trying to flex their muscle, stay relevant, or both, and media outlets who pander to it because "they're good for a quote". Yes, I'm clearly talking about Jeff Kennett, but Jeff Browne seems to have channelled his predecessor at Collingwood, too, all bluster railing about systems which have served the competition extremely well for decades. It's not about you, guys. And media, stop treating them like de facto politicians and covering the sport like it's Canberra. There's a pretty good competition going on, you know.

JM: There's a few, and perhaps there's a touch of recency bias here, but exaggerating contact and looking for free kicks has to go. We're seeing more and more players (not naming any names...) drop the shoulder as they're about to be tackled, and wildly fling the head back in an attempt to coerce the umpire into paying a free. I hate it. The AFL should start ramping up the punishment for this action to stamp it out of the game completely. First offence can be a warning. Do it twice, and you're missing a week.

MW: It's coming to a head pretty quickly, but players not adhering to the stand rule and going back five metres to fill the space a little. It means players with the ball can't dissect angles, or run around with the same effect as before, and the defenders backing off also means they have another number ahead of the ball. I think the AFL should mandate a player on the mark if they don't want to see more 'flooding' and space blocking.

JB: How about the match review inconsistencies? It's more than frustrating to sit back and watch incident assessments that leave us with more questions than answers. Is the AFL serious about taking into account potential to cause injury, or are they just words? In some cases, like Jordan De Goey's one-match ban for a sling tackle, they're right to punish the action and not the impact. But in others, like Willie Rioli's high bump on Matt Rowell, the incident gets waved away because of the 'outcome' despite the dangerous action. Throwing a dart at the classification table to determine the level of conduct, impact and contact would be more effective at the moment. The system is a farce.

How does Port Adelaide get its season back on track?

RC: While only one of the three losses has been a debacle, I still see two major issues with the Power. They still don't have a deep enough or consistent enough midfield in my view, with way too much reliance upon Ollie Wines and Travis Boak. Yes, Karl Amon and Willem Drew have gone up a gear, but are they match-winners, and is even their increased output enough? Port's seeming lack of mental toughness is an even bigger issue. Again there was panic with the game on the line last Friday night and they have a real propensity for "shockers".

JM: Win 10 straight? It's a damn good question. Statistically, they're doing a lot right but at the end of the day we aren't looking at raw numbers, but instead, their win-loss record. Charlie Dixon's absence should not be understated. He's clearly Port's focal point in the forward line and having him back will take the pressure off both Jeremy Finlayson and Todd Marshall. Are they still a flag contender? Yes, absolutely. They're 0-3, not 0-7.

MW: It sounds simple, but getting players on the park will help. Aliir Aliir is a big loss, Dixon's structural importance can't be overstated, Orazio Fantasia and Robbie Gray are important... Three of those four are forward half specialists, and it leads to my next point - nail your chances (looking at you, Travis Boak!). They had 27 scoring chances against Adelaide and lost, and were smashed by Hawthorn despite posting 21 scoring shots. Accuracy will help.

JB: Develop a killer instinct. The stats and history are against them now at 0-3 but it was still only four games ago that they capitulated in a home preliminary final despite starting as red-hot favourites. They're absolutely undermanned and could be boosted by returning stars in coming weeks but when the pressure mounts on the team and its coach like it is, the task of rediscovering their groove gets more and more strenuous. They can turn things around, but they'll need a ruthless edge to do it with games against the undefeated Demos and Blues in the next two rounds.

What headline will come out of Friday night's Geelong vs. Brisbane game?

RC: "Brisbane bulldozes Cats". The Lions' scoreboard potency at the moment is phenomenal, not sure even Geelong's steely defence will be able to keep it to a low score.

JM: Are the Lions the best team in the competition? I expect Brisbane to win and win well against the Cats, with their speed proving too much for what we all know is an older Geelong side. If the Lions do win, on the road, mind you, expect the commentary to be around flag favouritism and whether Chris Fagan's side can finally go all the way.

MW: "Big Cats brought back to earth by Little Cats in shootout". Brisbane played a glorified training drill on Saturday, and the Cats seems to have -- somehow -- found a ninth life in 2022. They're the two highest-scoring sides so far in 2022 (helped by a couple of smashings), but I think Geelong's high-handball, high-running game may shock the Lions down at Kardinia Park.

JB: "Ruthless Lions bring Cats back down to earth". Brisbane are unforgiving in their attack on the footy and I can't help but feel the narrow boundaries at GMHBA will suit Chris Fagan's game plan. Still not convinced by Geelong.