Every Wednesday of the 2022 season, ESPN will combine with Champion Data to provide an in-depth analysis on a particular hot topic in the AFL.
Fremantle. Brisbane. Richmond. Western Bulldogs. Can they really dare to dream?
They're the teams that occupy positions five through eight on the ladder as we look forward to the 2022 finals series, the elimination finalists who can't be forgotten in our premiership discussions.
Taking the long route through September makes it hard to be triumphant, but even if something's highly improbable you'd be naive to think this year's flag race is a race between four. Because if ever there's been a season so quirky and unpredictable, it's 2022.
Winning a premiership without the luxury of a top four berth is one of footy's most difficult tasks, in fact it's only happened twice in the VFL/AFL's 126-year history - Adelaide back in 1998 under the McIntyre finals system, and more recently the Bulldogs' stunning drought-breaker in 2016.
So is their fate already determined? A forlorn conclusion that they just haven't already done enough? We break down the strengths and weaknesses of the four lower ranked teams in the finals, and determine whether they have enough flag-winning attributes to cause headaches, or if their Achilles' heel looms as too big a flaw.
A premiership for the elimination finalists? Here's why they can; here's why they can't.
Fremantle
They say defence wins premierships, and for Justin Longmuir's sake, he'll be hoping that saying rings true in the next month. The Freo coach has turned his side into a defensive juggernaut -- a team incredibly difficult to penetrate and tough to kick a winning score against.
Their key anchors in Alex Pearce, Luke Ryan, and Brennan Cox have been outstanding all season, and they're complemented by the rebounding James Aish, Jordan Clark and youngster Hayden Young. It's a seriously strong mix that ranks second for points against this season (conceding 67.5 points per game), only one spot behind the reigning premiers (67.4).
The Dockers right now are also No. 1 for restricting scores from opposition inside 50s, and No. 3 at denying scores from every possible chain, meaning they're defensively sound both with and without the ball, setting up a full ground defence and trusting their tight-gripped back six when there's a leak.
Having your defence as your one-wood, though, also relies on ensuring you can maintain possession of the footy so that there's time to set up and therefore not be exposed from turnovers. Freo are the third best team for clearance differential in the league, and also rank No. 1 for disposals per game, which does help this cause.
Their issue? Scoring. It's all well and good keeping the opposition to a low total, but you don't score, you don't win, and the Dockers' challenge is finding that right balance. They rank 13th for scoring from inside 50 entries, 13th for contested possession differential in general play, and 16th at the transition game - taking the ball from the defensive 50 to the attacking 50.
Sure, personnel makes a difference, and regaining all of Rory Lobb (shoulder), Griffin Logue (groin) and Matt Taberner (calf) for the finals would help their scoring power immensely, but without them they just haven't appeared threatening enough.
If the Dockers are to salute in September, a low-scoring affair would need to beckon.
Brisbane
A far cry from the Dockers, Brisbane are all about keeping the foot on the pedal. So the opposition scored 120 points, hey? Well, let's just score 121. It's a risky game, and one that has seen them become a genuine force in recent seasons, but there's also a common theme with the Lions since they returned to finals action in 2019: six finals, one win. They're not getting it done when it counts.
If Chris Fagan's side doesn't have the game on their terms, they can crumble. But allow them to play their game and you're in for a tough day at the office. Brisbane ranks No. 2 for total score this season (97.6 points per game) behind only their upcoming opponent, with seven players averaging more than a goal a game led by All-Australian livewire Charlie Cameron, and are unsurprisingly also the No. 1 team for taking the ball from defensive 50 to attacking 50. But, they do fall when it comes to facing other top eight opposition this season, scoring 10 fewer points per game against them (only the Bulldogs are worse).
They're also winning the ball at the source more often than not, ranking third throughout the home-and-away season for contested possession differential in general play, which often gives them the first look going forward. The Lions' scoring efficiency is also a key strength, sitting in the top five teams for outscoring sides from both clearances and turnovers. But this was already evident.
The last 10 premiership teams have ranked top six for points against, which is something Brisbane ranks 10th overall for (conceding 81.78 per game). They're also 12th for defending an opposition inside 50 from a score.
We saw them wildly exposed by the Demons, but was that the lesson they needed to have, or will their year-on-year problems still persist?
Richmond
The Richmond dynasty isn't over. It may be hanging by a thread, but while the Tigers are alive in September you know anything can happen. As long as Damien Hardwick's men keep producing on the offensive side of their game, then teams in the top eight should be concerned about the damage they can cause now that the whips are cracking.
The Tigers are the No. 1 scoring team in the competition (98.4 points per game) which makes it a difficult task to defeat them. While their potency in the front half -- with key match winners Jack Riewoldt, Tom Lynch, at times Shai Bolton and possibly a returning Dustin Martin calling the forward 50 home -- still remains, their frantic style of football will always give them a fighting chance and makes them the third best team at scoring once inside 50.
Richmond is the second best team at outscoring its opposition from turnovers, meaning they punish the opposition for mistakes across the field -- a trademark of their play since 2017 -- and restrict it from happening the other way. It also mimics the style of football that's needed when pressure intensifies during a cut-throat final, and it's the pressure game they try and thrive on, despite ranking 15th for overall pressure in 2022.
Damien Hardwick also has his team ranking second for defensive 50 to attacking 50 transition, and No. 1 for points generated from forward half intercepts.
Their downfall? Allowing teams to score too freely from defence, ranking 14th for opposition score from back half chains. They can also be susceptible to teams who pepper inside 50s and put their defence under immediate and constant pressure, ranking 13th for conceding a score per entry.
The Tigers still rank lowly for groundball get differential (14th), and clearance differential (15th). Six teams have reached the finals in the past four years despite ranking in the bottom five for the groundball stat, though, which shouldn't be too concerning.
Western Bulldogs
Stacked in the centre of the park, it's not surprising to see them rank as the No. 1 team for clearance differential. But is it the wrong stat to dominate? In 2019, Port Adelaide were the best clearance team in the league despite finishing 10th.
ABSOLUTE SCENES!
— Western Bulldogs (@westernbulldogs) August 21, 2022
Incredible 😆😆😆 pic.twitter.com/TW0gaUmEW2
Also working in Luke Beveridge's favour, however, is the fact that his side is the No. 1 team for scores from clearance differential, meaning they are far from wasteful when getting their hands on the footy first, which they often do.
Additionally, the Bulldogs are the No. 1 team for time in forward half differential, No. 3 for contested possession differential, and sit fifth overall for points for. But we know how lethal their midfield can be, particularly going one way. So where could it fall apart?
The Dogs, rank 16th for opposition points from defensive half chains, allowing teams to punish them via this avenue and slice through full-ground zones. Last season, the lowest ranked finalist in this stat was 11th, and in 2020, the lowest ranked finalist was 12th.
Similar to both Richmond and Brisbane, the Dogs have an issue at defending opposition inside 50s, ranking 14th for score per entries against, and 11th for total points against.
They may have only limped their way through this time, but they've got experience taking the long route, so who's to say they can't do it from outside the top four again?