ALAMEDA, Calif. – In an odd set of circumstances a team that fired its offensive coordinator this past week will face a team Sunday that fired its defensive coordinator this past week and the winner hopes to save some semblance of its season.
The Denver Broncos (3-7) fired Mike McCoy this week and promoted quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave to finish out the season as the team’s play-caller. And the Oakland Raiders (4-6) fired defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. and promoted John Pagano to run the defense for what remains of the season.
“I’m surprised by both of our seasons," said Raiders coach Jack Del Rio this past week. “ ... I think it’s a little bit surprising that both of us have had struggles this year."
With that in mind, here are some things to watch for in Sunday’s Broncos-Raiders game:
Settle in: Paxton Lynch will make his first start at quarterback since Dec. 4. He is the third quarterback to start a game for the Broncos this season. The Broncos have made it clear they don’t want Lynch to simply stand in the pocket to try to figure out what he’s looking at if he feels like he can run his way out of trouble. The Broncos want to put Lynch on the move, so look for a steady diet of rollouts, play-action and safe throws, especially early in the game, to try and get Lynch dialed in against a Raiders defense that hasn’t rushed the passer well all season. The Raiders are last in the league in sacks, with 14, as last season’s Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack, has 5.5 sacks this season. In his three games last season – two starts – Lynch completed 59 percent of his passes at 6 yards per pass attempt as he ran just eight times combined in the two games.
Bulk up: One thing to keep an eye on with Musgrave’s elevation to be the play-caller will be if the Broncos elect to play out of more two-tight end and two-back sets as they try to move Lynch into the lineup. The Broncos, given they’ve trailed so much of the time during the current six-game losing streak, have consistently played out of three-wide receiver sets and have consistently found little success doing it. And at times it hasn’t mattered if they are still within one or two scores, they still elected to open up the formation when they have consistently struggled to protect the quarterbacks. Last week alone they tried to run out of the shotgun a season-most 18 times in a game they trailed just 13-10 late in the third quarter. The Broncos have surrendered 15 sacks in the last six games when they’ve been in three-wide. Pagano figures to be aggressive in the rush when the Broncos are in it Sunday.
Run to win: The Broncos could find some room to work in the running game in the middle of the Raiders defense. The Raiders have surrendered 4.7 yards per carry on runs over the offense’s center and 4.9 yards per carry on runs over the left guard. The Broncos have been productive through the middle in the running game at 4.8 yards per carry in runs behind center Matt Paradis. The Broncos haven’t been nearly as effect in runs over the guards, so it’s a narrow window and the Broncos will have to show some commitment even if they don’t have some early success.
Find some pressure: Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has been sacked just three times in the last five games, so even with some difficulties on offense at times the Raiders have kept Carr relatively clean. Carr suffered a back injury against the Broncos earlier this season and missed his next start, but the Raiders have largely kept opposing pass rushers away from him since. The Broncos haven’t been as effective as they need to be creating pressure in the middle of the formation – no defensive lineman has more than two sacks and the team has six sacks combined from all of the defensive linemen – and the Bengals’ two touchdown passes last Sunday came when the Broncos had tried to turn up the heat in the rush. The Broncos have also forced just two fumbles this season, which is tied for the lowest total in the league – with Arizona.