DETROIT -- After Day 2 of the 2021 draft, Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes turned to his assistant, Ray Agnew, almost in disbelief.
“Man, he’s still there,” Holmes told Agnew.
Leading his first draft since being named Lions GM that January, Holmes had highlighted a couple of prospects for the final day of selections, topped by USC wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Holmes & Co. had watched him slip through three rounds before taking St. Brown in Round 4 with the 112th overall pick. The selection would prove to be a steal.
“He was very excited when the next day rolled around and we were able to get St. Brown, but that’s one of the greatest examples of what I’ll call Brad’s brilliance in the later rounds,” Agnew told ESPN. “[St. Brown] was a guy we talked about back in L.A.”
In his first two seasons with the Lions, St. Brown has accumulated over 2,000 receiving yards (2,073), joining Hall of Fame receiver Calvin Johnson as the only Lions to do so. He was also selected to the 2022 Pro Bowl as a replacement.
Of the 13 players from the 2021 draft class to make a Pro Bowl, only St. Brown and San Francisco 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga (fifth-round pick) did so after being drafted in the third round or later, per ESPN Stats & Information research.
St. Brown is perhaps the best example of Holmes' success in the draft since being hired, but certainly not the only one. Since 2021, Detroit ranks sixth (148) in games started by players drafted in either 2021 or 2022. Among the biggest contributors have been St. Brown; offensive tackle Penei Sewell (No. 7 overall in 2021), who became the first Lions tackle to make a Pro Bowl since Lomas Brown in 1995; No. 2 overall pick in 2022, Aidan Hutchinson, who registered the second-most sacks (9.5) by a rookie in franchise history en route to finishing second in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year voting last season; 2022 third-round pick Kerby Joseph, who became the first player to pick off Aaron Rodgers three times in the same season; and sixth-round linebackers Malcolm Rodriguez and James Houston (2022), who both went from low-round picks to key contributors, with Houston posting eight sacks in just seven games last season.
“I don’t know what it is. I think some people just have the eye for talent and they know what talent looks like, they know what potential looks like and I think Brad has that eye,” St. Brown said. “Obviously, he selected me so what can I say? But I’m just saying. Aside from all that, he’s definitely made some great picks in the later rounds and like I said, some people just have that eye for talent, you can’t teach it and I feel like you’re just born with it, and I think he has it.”
This is why ESPN senior draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. -- speaking on a conference call last month -- gave Holmes an A+ for his drafts as Detroit GM. And fellow evaluators have followed suit, saying Holmes is one of the top GMs in football on draft day.
BEFORE TAKING HOUSTON in the sixth round of the 2022 draft, Holmes pulled special teams coordinator Dave Fipp inside the war room for a chat about the HBCU product.
After being tasked with scouting roughly 150 prospects leading up to the 2022 draft, Fipp’s opinion was trusted when Holmes asked, “Is this guy gonna start on special teams?”
“I had put a grade that he would play, but not on all four [units], but he would help us,” Fipp told Holmes.
“You sure?” Holmes countered.
Then, after taking in numerous viewpoints from staff members throughout a meticulous process that included nights of studying full games -- not just highlights -- Holmes trusted his gut when selecting Houston, who would go on to become the third player in NFL history to register at least 1.0 sack in each of the first four games of his career.
The Jackson State product wasn’t elevated to the active roster until the Thanksgiving game against Buffalo. But he impressed in his debut versus the Bills, becoming the first Lions player in franchise history to record two sacks in his first game.
“I just think your gut, regardless of the round, your gut is always going to be -- you can look at all the data and the research and we scrub it, and we dive deep, but at the end of the day if it doesn’t feel right -- it’s a little difficult whichever round,” Holmes said. “It could be in the seventh round, and you have to make that phone call to a kid and tell him he’s going to be a Detroit Lion, you want to feel confident about it.
“You don’t want to have any nervousness about it,” he continued. “So, that’s just where the gut piece comes in at. I’ve always trusted it and I still trust it.”
Before becoming GM of the Lions, Holmes spent 18 seasons with the Los Angeles Rams, starting as a public relations intern before transitioning into scouting and ultimately becoming the team’s director of college scouting.
He was pivotal in drafting the likes of defensive tackle Aaron Donald, quarterback Jared Goff, wide receiver Cooper Kupp and safety John Johnson III among others.
Holmes’ attention to detail caught the attention of Rams general manager Les Snead, who recalled Holmes -- trying to get as much information about a prospect as possible -- would often circle back to a player’s high school days before forming his final opinions.
ESPN NFL draft analyst Matt Miller is just as impressed with Holmes’ late-round prowess as he is with him getting it right with the early picks, which prompted Miller to say he’s “a huge fan of what Brad has done.”
“Getting a James Houston in the sixth round. To identify a player like that, who comes in and has such a great rookie season, to me, that shows your ability not just as you can get the first-round picks right, but you can also find those Day 3 steals and I think if you look at the best GMs in the league, whether it’s Howie Roseman [Philadelphia Eagles] or Brett Veach [Kansas City Chiefs], that’s what they’ve done a great job of,” Miller said. “It’s not just making sure they get things right early, but they’re finding value, they’re finding starters on Day 3.”
NOT ALL OF Holmes’ picks have been immediate successes, though.
Holmes took a big swing last spring when he traded up 20 spots to select speedy Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams 12th overall, despite a torn left ACL Williams suffered in the College Football Playoff national championship game that January.
Although Williams entered the league with tons of potential, he has so far played in just six games after recovering from the injury, has only one catch, and will miss the first six games of 2023 after the league announced last week he was one of four Lions players suspended for violating the NFL's gambling policy. Two of the Lions punished -- wide receiver Quintez Cephus and safety C.J. Moore -- were suspended indefinitely for betting on NFL games. Williams received a reduced ban for mobile betting that occurred at the Lions' Allen Park facility on non-NFL games, according to the team.
It is unclear whether Williams' suspension will see the Lions targeting a wide receiver this week. But at the very least, Holmes & Co. must again wait to see if their gamble will pay off on the field.
Defensive lineman Levi Onwuzurike -- a second-round selection in 2021 -- is another example of a premium pick still yet to launch as he continues to rehab a back injury that has bothered him since rookie training camp and forced him to miss the entire 2022 season.
So, for every gem that Holmes has identified, situations like Williams and Onwuzurike are reminders that prospects may not pan out right away, either.
ONE DAY BEFORE Thursday’s draft, Holmes is making his final preparations. With picks No. 6 and 18 in the first round, a number of prospects the Lions like could be available when Detroit is put on the clock.
In their latest mock drafts, ESPN analysts have the Lions selecting a wide array of players in those spots, from Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon and Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson at No. 6, to Pitt defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and Texas running back Bijan Robinson at No. 18.
So, being prepared for a number of different scenarios will be key for Holmes & Co.
“Yeah, just a little bit more unpredictable and it’s just having those two picks, they’re kind of in unique spots just depending on what’s going to happen in front of you, what’s going to happen behind you,” Holmes said of the upcoming draft. “And then like I was saying before about where we are right now, I say we have a lot of flexibility. We can go in a lot of different directions, and we feel good about that. But it’s just a little different.”
And for those who get to sit inside the war room beside Holmes on draft night, they know the picks won’t be taken lightly.
“Very seriously. We put the work in and if you put the work in you feel good about the guy that you pick,” Agnew said of Holmes. “Brad’s a good leader. We all follow him, and we trust him, and he trusts us, so it all works together. You put the work in, and you’re excited about the guy you get, and you feel good about him.”