DAVIE, Fla. -- While coach Brian Flores insists the Miami Dolphins' focus is on winning their final two games, the team's primary interest has shifted to the offseason -- specifically the 2020 NFL draft.
There are many possibilities of how the Dolphins can overhaul their young, makeshift roster into a contender, but a significant part of that process will depend on where Miami picks at the top of the draft's first round.
Draft positioning is the main storyline in Week 16's game between the Cincinnati Bengals (1-13) at the Dolphins (3-11). For these rebuilding teams, along with the New York Giants (3-11) and Washington (3-11), those first-round picks could shape the future of each franchise.
The Bengals are in the driver's seat for the No. 1 pick, holding at least a two-game lead over every other team. If Cincinnati loses either of their final two games (at Miami or against Cleveland), then they will officially be on the draft clock.
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and Ohio State defensive end Chase Young are slotted by many draft experts as the first two picks, including by ESPN analyst Todd McShay, whose Mock Draft 1.0 published Tuesday. Injured Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is talented enough to be included in that group, and maybe even lead that group, but his right hip dislocation and posterior wall fracture makes him the draft's biggest wild card.
The battle for draft seeding behind Cincinnati is far more in flux, particularly between picks No. 2 through No. 5. The order of top five through Week 15 is: Cincinnati, Giants, Miami, Washington and Detroit. But much of that is subject to change, including what happens in the Week 16 matchups between Cincinnati and Miami and the Giants and Washington.
Here are several factors that will affect where each team falls in the final draft standings.
Tiebreakers
The main draft tiebreaker when multiple teams have the same record is strength of schedule (SOS), not head-to-head results. The team with the easiest SOS is rewarded with the more favorable pick because the process is set up to give the worst teams the best chance to retool.
A 3-13 team with an easier schedule is deemed to be in worst shape than a 3-13 team with a more difficult schedule.
Of the three 3-11 teams, the Giants have the easiest strength of schedule and Miami is next. Washington, barely, has the hardest SOS of the group.
That means the Giants, as of Week 15, are holding the No. 2 pick, Miami has the No. 3 pick and Washington No. 4.
The SOS difference between Miami and Washington is tight. Miami's opponents are 110-114 (.491 winning percentage). Washington's opponents are 110-113-1 (.493 winning percentage). So it could go either way over the next two weeks of the season.
Both teams are unlikely to catch the Giants (.473) in SOS because New York holds the advantage in any tiebreaker between Miami and Washington. The Bengals have the NFL's most difficult remaining SOS, so they would likely lose any tiebreaker if they improved to 3-13 and were tied with another 3-13 team.
Where are the Dolphins likely to pick?
ESPN's Football Power Index currently projects Miami to finish with No. 3 pick. If the Dolphins lose their final two games (against Cincinnati and at New England), they are guaranteed a top-three pick. There is a chance it could be the No. 2 pick, depending on tiebreakers with the Giants and Washington. There's a small chance for the Dolphins to get the No. 1 pick if the Bengals win out.
If the Dolphins win one of their finals two games, they are guaranteed to land a top-five pick, but it could be as low as No. 5 if the Detroit Lions (3-10-1) lose their remaining two games (at Denver and against Green Bay).
If Miami wins both of its remaining games, it would likely remain in the top-eight because of SOS.
New York and Washington play each other in Week 16, which will be a huge game for top-five draft seeding. Dolphins fans rooting for a more favorable pick should root for the Giants because New York is unlikely to catch Miami in a SOS tiebreaker. Miami leads Washington in that department. A Giants win, coupled with two Dolphins losses, could put Miami on track for the No. 2 pick.
The potential prospect prizes
The Dolphins are in desperate need of a quarterback, and 2020 has been circled as the year for them to get one. Miami has three first-round picks, currently projected at N0. 3, No. 20 and No. 24 per FPI.
Burrow has emerged as the No. 1 QB in this class. Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert has some supporters who could make him a top-10 pick. Tagovailoa is the uber-talented unknown, based off his medical issues -- if he declares.
Young appears to be the draft's best defensive player. Some team who passes on a quarterback early will be very happy with him. McShay projects in his Mock Draft 1.0 the Giants to select Young with the No. 2 pick.
The outcome of Sunday's game against Cincinnati will go a long way toward Miami's draft day choice for its first pick of the 2020 draft.