FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- To understand the thinking of the New England Patriots as it relates to their intention to keep quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in 2017 -- which was reported by ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter on Wednesday morning -- there are a few important points to highlight:
Few historical comparable situations for Tom Brady and QBs into 40s. This is something that has been part of coach Bill Belichick’s thinking since the team drafted Garoppolo in the second round in 2014, and then quarterback Jacoby Brissett in the third round in 2016. What is the historical precedent of quarterbacks playing at a high starting-caliber level into their 40s? The Patriots hope Brady will and no one is betting against him, but that doesn’t mean they won’t aggressively protect themselves in a situation that is, in many ways, uncharted territory. As Belichick has said often, if a team doesn’t have the quarterback position accounted for, it puts the entire team at risk. While Brady shows no signs of slowing down as he approaches his 40th birthday in August, and hopes to play into his mid-40s, Belichick places a high value on insurance, especially in situations that would qualify more as “outlier” than the norm. Garoppolo, as he showed in six quarters at the start of the 2016 season and then in seamlessly leading the offense in practice when Brady was rehabbing injuries later in the year, is an extremely valuable insurance policy.
What has Belichick told us about “the end” for players? I’ve sat through hundreds of Belichick news conferences since 2000 and one of the things he said nearly a decade ago still resonates today, and I believe directly applies to this situation. Belichick was explaining, during training camp on the red level of the press box, how in his experience the end can come suddenly for players in the NFL's older age bracket. While the end can come more gradually for younger players, Belichick essentially said that day it is more of a fall-off-the-cliff situation with those up there in years. No one is saying that will happen with Brady, but this again falls into the “outlier” category.
There are no untouchables. While the Patriots don’t expect to trade Garoppolo, per Schefter’s report, that doesn’t mean things can’t change in the future if a team makes an offer New England can’t refuse, or the Patriots simply change their current thought process. That obviously hasn’t happened at this point. What is an offer they can’t refuse? My feeling: A first-round pick and an additional conditional first-rounder. From what I wrote on Feb. 19: “I don’t sense major urgency from the Patriots to trade Garoppolo -- he has significant value to them for 2017 and perhaps beyond -- so it will take a strong offer (e.g. at least a first-round pick) to entice the Patriots to make any deal. Thus, I’m curious to see what market, if any, develops for Garoppolo.”
Answering the “why not get value for him now” question. The main argument from those who advocate the Patriots trading Garoppolo is that the team will lose him anyway after the 2017 season, so why not take the best offer now? Outside of the obvious answer that the Patriots currently see more value in keeping him than what they would receive for trading him based on the current marketplace, much can change in an NFL calendar year. And then there’s this: The Patriots didn’t become one of the NFL’s best franchises by having a fire sale on valuable assets.