METAIRIE, La. -- Since the start of 2014, only two NFL teams have failed to produce a winning record at any point: the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New Orleans Saints.
And the Saints (5-8) will now be lucky to finish 7-9 for the third straight season after giving their two worst offensive performances of the year in back-to-back losses to the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That’s the kind of mediocre track record that just got Jeff Fisher fired by the Los Angeles Rams.
I don’t think Saints coach Sean Payton or general manager Mickey Loomis will meet the same fate as Fisher at the end of this season -- and I don’t think they should just yet. I also strongly believe the Saints should hang on to quarterback Drew Brees until they find their own version of Dak Prescott to replace him.
But I think it’s now “2017 or bust” for all three of them.
The Saints have shown gradual improvement over the past two years -- extremely gradual -- after they let their talent base and locker room culture crumble in 2014 and decided that both needed a bit of a makeover.
And now they are set up to go all-in next year because they signed Brees to only a one-year extension through 2017 and because of the unusual way they structured his contract, pushing $18 million in salary-cap costs to 2018 so that they can start out 2017 with roughly $20 million in cap space.
But all of that has to result in the Saints’ first playoff berth since 2013 next season. Or else that old line about the “definition of insanity” comes into play: doing the same things over again and expecting different results.
Payton and Loomis have earned patience from Saints owner Tom Benson -- and rightfully so -- after they built the first Super Bowl championship team in franchise history and went to the playoffs five times from 2006-2013.
The Saints signed Payton to a five-year contract extension worth more than $9 million per year this offseason after they briefly considered parting ways in January. And Benson was quoted this year by the New Orleans Times-Picayune as saying that promoting Loomis to GM in 2002 was the most important thing he has done in his 30-plus years of ownership.
But that patience has worn thin among the Saints’ fan base -- and rightfully so. Three straight losing seasons is pretty much the max.
Of course Payton deserves blame and criticism for three straight non-winning seasons. But the Saints had a chance at the beginning of this year to consider other alternatives when Payton flirted with the idea of going to another team to coach, and the Saints justifiably decided Payton still gave them the best chance to win.
First and foremost, Payton is still an elite offensive coach, despite the fact that he took over play-calling duties three weeks ago and deserves the blame for these past two flops. Before that, the Saints offense looked as dynamic as it had since 2011, and they still rank No. 1 in the NFL this year in both total yards per game and passing yards per game. They rank No. 2 in points per game.
The Saints have also shown some legitimate signs of improvement this year, starting with young talent they have compiled on both sides of the ball and with a defense that is finally showing some signs of life. They now rank 24th in the NFL in yards allowed -- a world better than the last two years, when they ranked in the bottom two.
"This is different (from the previous two seasons)," Payton said Wednesday. "This is a different type team. I’m encouraged in a lot of areas with our draft. I’m encouraged with the young guys playing. I’m encouraged with young guys we had a chance to play through injury. We’ve overcome some tough, hard-fought games. We’ve lost some games this year I’ve never seen before (including two via two-points conversions) and yet that’s frustrating.
"This is a different team. It’s going to be important that this team finishes well, though."
And for those wondering why I only gave Payton a 2 out of 5 on ESPN's hot-seat rating, did you think Payton's five-year extension was contingent on him making the playoffs in Year 1? I know I predicted them to finish with only seven or eight wins this year. I think that's what most people predicted.
Payton’s biggest problem is the same as Loomis’ biggest problem -- they have completely flopped when it comes to big-money free agents in recent years.
The Saints have spent mega-millions on guys who have barely produced for them: safety Jairus Byrd, cornerback Brandon Browner, running back C.J. Spiller, tight end Coby Fleener and linebacker James Laurinaitis, among others. And they wasted millions more on contract extensions for guys they gave up on, such as Junior Galette, Keenan Lewis and Jimmy Graham (though they did get a ton of value in return when they traded Graham).
The Saints have gotten some free-agent deals right, but it has been with lower-priced guys such as cornerback Delvin Breaux, receiver Willie Snead, linebacker Craig Robertson and defensive tackle Nick Fairley.
If the Saints decided a radical change was needed, that would be the one to make: bringing in someone new to lead the personnel decisions, with Loomis moving into more of a VP role.
I’d be surprised to see Payton or Loomis cede control in that area, and I’d be surprised if Benson forced them to. But the Saints did acknowledge last year that they needed to make some front-office changes when they brought in former NFL GM Jeff Ireland to oversee their college scouting department and overhauled the college scouting staff. And so far it looks like they’ve hit on much of their 2016 draft class -- one of the best reasons for hope going forward.
I know some folks have already run out of that hope. The Saints’ inconsistency has been unrelenting for three years now, and these past two losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay might have been the last straw for many.
For those Saints fans still clinging to a little bit of faith that a breakthrough is possible, no, that definition of insanity doesn’t apply to you.
But give it an expiration date of 2017.