My best bet for the New Orleans Saints' draft choice at No. 32 isn’t a draft pick at all.
I still think there is at least a 50-50 chance they wind up trading for New England Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler.
Of course my confidence has waned a bit over the past few weeks, since those trade talks have gone so quiet. But perhaps all sides will finally be motivated to work out a deal with two big deadlines looming over the next two weeks.
Friday is the deadline for restricted free agents to sign offer sheets with other teams (the Saints have made it clear they don’t plan to sign Butler to an offer sheet, which would require them to give up the No. 11 pick in the draft).
That means everyone would have to agree to some sort of sign-and-trade arrangement instead -- most likely for the No. 32 pick. And that makes the start of the draft on April 27 the ultimate deadline.
If the Saints don’t wind up trading for Butler, then I predict they’ll pull off another “stunner” with the No. 32 pick instead -- finally drafting a player from neighboring LSU for just the second time in 13 years, cornerback Tre'Davious White.
Click here to see my top choices for the Saints’ draft choice at No. 11, led by Tennessee defensive end Derek Barnett.
Here are my best bets for pick No. 32:
16 players almost certain to be gone:
DE Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas, Derek Barnett
LB Reuben Foster, Haason Reddick
QB Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky
RB Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey
TE O.J. Howard
15 more players I project will be gone:
DE Taco Charlton, Charles Harris
OLB Takkarist McKinley, T.J. Watt
LB Jarrad Davis
QB Patrick Mahomes II
RB Dalvin Cook
WR John Ross
TE David Njoku
2 OTs among Cam Robinson, Garrett Boles, Ryan Ramczyk
Saints’ most likely picks:
1. LSU CB Tre'Davious White. Edge rusher and cornerback are by far the Saints’ two most glaring needs, and I already gave them an edge rusher at No. 11. White (5-foot-11, 192 pounds) is one of many possibilities here at cornerback, but he might be the most polished of the bunch, with excellent man-coverage skills and four years of starting experience. He had six career interceptions and also served as a punt returner at LSU.
2. Alabama CB Marlon Humphrey. Actually, take your pick among several cornerbacks who could start flying off the board between the 20th and 50th choices. It’s possible that King (a 6-foot-3, 200-pounder from Washington) could fall to the Saints. And it's possible that Humphrey (6-0, 197) could rise out of their reach after starting for two years at Alabama, with five career interceptions and three forced fumbles. USC’s Adoree' Jackson, Colorado’s Chidobe Awuzie or the Florida duo of Quincy Wilson and Teez Tabor could all be in play here, too, depending on how the Saints have them graded out.
3. Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes II. Yes, I have Mahomes going in my top 31. But I think he deserves special mention since I think he is a very realistic possibility for the Saints if he falls -- which would create more drama than usual surrounding the final pick of Round 1. Mahomes has been generating a ton of buzz during the pre-draft process, with ESPN analyst Jon Gruden saying he could be the top QB in this year’s class. Mahomes (6-2, 225) has a huge arm and put up some gaudy college statistics. But he is also considered a gunslinger and a raw developmental prospect after playing in the “air raid” system at Texas Tech. Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer is another gifted athlete who could use some molding and could be a consideration here if the Saints are intent on finding a successor for Drew Brees.
4. UConn S Obi Melifonwu. Like former college teammate Byron Jones, Melifonwu tore up the NFL scouting combine, running the 40-yard dash in 4.40 seconds and posting a vertical leap of 44 inches and a broad jump of 11 feet, 9 inches. Safety isn’t New Orleans’ most glaring need, but Peppers, Melifonwu or Washington’s Budda Baker could easily be the pick if one of them is the highest graded player on the board.
5. Oklahoma RB Joe Mixon. Mixon definitely has the talent to be worthy of a first-round pick, and running back is a medium need for the Saints after they let backup Tim Hightower get away in free agency. But this would still be early to draft one, considering more glaring needs. And Mixon is a huge wild-card in this year’s draft because of a 2014 incident in which he punched a woman at a bar. At least two teams have reportedly removed him from their draft boards.