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How the Saints can get Jameis Winston back on track

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Can Winston improve with the Saints? (1:32)

Sarah Spain, Pablo Torre and Israel Gutierrez speculate the chances of Jameis Winston improving his level of play now that he is with the Saints. (1:32)

METAIRIE, La. -- Thirty interceptions.

The first quarterback in NFL history to throw at least 30 touchdown passes and 30 picks in the same season.

It’s such a glaring number that it has become Jameis Winston’s defining trait, even though he won a Heisman Trophy, even though he was the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NFL draft, even though he just led the league with 5,109 passing yards last season. And it’s why he accepted a one-year deal worth just $1.1 million plus incentives to try to revitalize his career with the New Orleans Saints.

But you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who considers the 26-year-old to be a lost cause.

“He still has all those natural traits that if you were gonna put him back in the draft process, you’re gonna fall in love with those traits again,” ESPN analyst Matt Bowen said. “I’m sure [coach] Sean Payton wants the challenge. I would want that challenge as a coach.”

Yes, the turnovers have always been a concern for Winston. He threw 18 interceptions as a sophomore at Florida State before being drafted No. 1 overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then he threw 58 of them in his first 56 games from 2015-18.

But if he had just stuck with that average and thrown only 16 or 17 picks last year while the Buccaneers won two or three more games, he might still be in Tampa making closer to $30 million.

So that’s why Winston’s decision to take a step back and learn behind two of the all-time greats in Payton and quarterback Drew Brees was met with praise.

Winston’s longtime throwing coach George Whitfield Jr. predicted the Saints will "unlock" his potential.

So how, exactly, will this marriage pay off for Winston -- and possibly for the Saints if they decide to keep him beyond this year?

ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, a former NFL quarterback, said there are two areas in particular that can make this move into a “home run.” One is for Winston to learn from the way Brees masters his progressions through muscle memory. The other is to learn from Brees that sometimes it’s OK to settle for a checkdown or throw the ball away.

“I would say that one of Jameis’ biggest flaws when it comes to the interceptions is he panics with the football -- meaning the ball has to come out quicker than he’s ready for, or ‘No. 1’s not there. Where’s No. 2? Where’s No. 3?'" Orlovsky said. “I’ve said that Drew’s probably the best quarterback, at least of our time, of never panicking with the football. And the reason he rarely does that is because when you watch Drew warm up, he trains his body via muscle memory. He’ll throw the ball, then he’ll kind of [mimic looking for] two, three, four, progression-wise. So he’s gotten thousands of reps within his body of going through those progressions.

“Now, some people might say, ‘Why can’t [Winston learn to] do that anywhere?’ Well, I’ve been on five different teams really and never had that done -- never had that consistently stressed and made a part of my game, until I saw Drew doing it. I think it’s something that’s very difficult to create as a habit unless it’s emphasized and mandated and structured."

The second thing Orlovsky pointed out is that so many of Winston’s interceptions came in “pressure” situations, according to his notes and ESPN research:

  • 11 in the fourth quarter or overtime

  • 11 on third down, two on fourth down

  • 13 when blitzed

  • 19 when trailing

  • 23 when the score was within one possession

“It felt like Jameis was always trying to prove, ‘I’m the first pick’ every single play,” said Orlovsky, who added that Winston will now get to see firsthand that “great quarterbacks are willing to play a boring brand of football when it's necessary.

“Imagine watching Drew Brees, this Hall of Fame quarterback, one of the most accomplished we’ve ever seen, great talent, imagine watching him take four checkdowns in a row. Or imagine him throwing the ball away on third-and-7 in the second quarter," Orlovsky said. "Sean McVay, when I was with the Rams, had this comment: ‘That’s the right play because it’s the only play.’ And sometimes it is a throwaway.”

On the flip side, both Orlovsky and Bowen agreed that Winston has some natural traits that have continued to impress and improve.

So for every gut-wrenching pick like this ...

... You will also see some throws that most NFL QBs don’t make, like this incredible 46-yard pass to receiver Mike Evans on third-and-17 against the Tennessee Titans. Winston escaped pressure in the pocket, then threw the ball 55 yards in the air while being hit.

He also made throws like this:

Even the Buccaneers’ decision-makers who ultimately decided to replace him with Tom Brady agreed he did some special things last year.

As ESPN Buccaneers reporter Jenna Laine pointed out in this detailed breakdown, Winston's deep-ball accuracy improved substantially in his first season with coach Bruce Arians. He completed a league-high 41 passes of 20-plus air yards -- more than doubling his career high.

And Winston is hardly the only quarterback who has taken some time to adjust to Arians’ “no risk-it, no biscuit” philosophy. Carson Palmer also threw a career-high 22 interceptions in his first season under Arians with the Arizona Cardinals in 2013. Andrew Luck threw a career-high 18 picks as a rookie under Arians in 2012.

“[Winston] has all the talent you need to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. And now I think it’s more about putting him in the proper system that can kind of refine his game and maximize all those tools,” Bowen said. “Schematically, look how Sean Payton manages his quarterbacks in terms of getting them to throw more on time, more in rhythm, and getting them to throw to more open windows and using pre-snap formation and movement to create defined reads for the quarterback. I think that all benefits Jameis.

“When you look at Jameis, at times he can be erratic, right? Because he doesn’t play with rhythm or timing in the passing game. And I think at times he’s not reading the field correctly in terms of trying to force the ball to certain areas of the field.”

Both Bowen and Orlovsky stressed that Winston’s aggressive nature can be an advantage, because sometimes that’s the missing element for quarterbacks. Orlovsky recalled when he was a backup with the Detroit Lions, playing for current Saints QB coach Joe Lombardi, that Lombardi encouraged Lions starter Matthew Stafford to “never lose your stinger.”

At the same time, however, Bowen said Winston doesn't have to rely on the deep ball.

“I don’t think the modern NFL’s about the deep ball anymore. I think it’s about taking strong-armed quarterbacks and being able to attack tight windows, throw inside the seams,” Bowen said. “And when you do throw down the field, those balls are more scripted throws. Finding matchups or coverages you can exploit, then showcasing that big-time arm to take your shots when the situation presents itself."