Lights off. Curled up in bed. The peace and quiet allowed me to "help" my pick. Or at least I hoped it would.
These are the things you convince yourself of when $45,000 could be yours. That's a good amount of money to anyone, but it means that much when your annual salary is less than half that.
It was Nov. 18, 2002. If the Chicago Bears beat the St. Louis Rams, I would win $45,000 from a $50 entry fee. Ah, the beauty of the football lottery, a.k.a. Eliminator/Survivor pools. After starting with 900 entries, I was one of five still alive in Week 11. My pick (the Jaguars) already hit on Sunday, while my four competitors all selected St. Louis on Monday Night Football.
One upset, and the loot would be all mine.
The Rams were experiencing a Super Bowl hangover, having already lost Kurt Warner to injury. The team was no longer "The Greatest Show on Turf," but that said, the struggling Bears were still double-digit underdogs and riding a seven-game losing streak. This was a legitimate longshot.
I had already dreamed of how I would pay off student loans -- and that was after racking my brain about ways to hedge my position before that Monday night game. No real advantage existed and my optimal approach required the fetal position in bed with positive mojo.
Ultimately, it all came down to one final drive. The Bears forced a St. Louis punt with one minute left, trailing by five points. I had a chance, but quarterback Chris Chandler barely provided a whimper. Not a single yard gained. Not a single first down. No real chance for me to sweat it out in that final minute. Game over.
That was the closest I came to winning that pool and any Eliminator pool since. To this day, I have never forgiven Dick Jauron as the Bears had their opportunities. The game did not have to come down to that final possession without any timeouts.
Although Malcolm Gladwell had not yet unveiled his "10,000-hour rule," I felt my extensive experience with Madden video games had afforded me expertise in game theory -- and, in my "humble" opinion, still does. I was befuddled by some decisions, but none more than fourth-and-1 near midfield, approaching halftime. Chicago punted, and St. Louis promptly marched down the field for a touchdown before intermission.
I hated Jauron's decision then and still hate it now. This was a Bears team that was not sniffing playoff contention. This was a season to forget and Jauron had absolutely nothing to lose. Plus, just weeks earlier, Herm Edwards famously declared, "You play to win the game!" Unfortunately for me, Jauron did not heed Herm's mandate.
As you can tell, I still have nightmares over this. Welcome to the life of a bettor.
That disappointment encompasses a bettor's life when you are trying to outperform 899 other entries. You are not supposed to win. You need so much to go right. But then again, this is not a 12-team parlay. Someone does actually win that insane amount. A friend of a friend of a friend did end up winning. He was a broke, recent college grad like I was, so all things considered, I was happy for him ... as long as he wasn't related to Dick Jauron. One day I'll get over it. Maybe...
So, here we are in Week 4, and I am already bounced in all three of my Eliminator pools. That's what happens when the Vikings lose as 17-point home favorites. Congratulations to anyone still alive in their pools. Props to you. My advice: Seize the opportunity. It may be the closest you ever come.
Here's what I like this weekend (3-1 last week):
Alabama -30.5, first Half (vs. UL-Lafayette): That is a big spread for a game, let alone for a half. But this Alabama team is defying logic and recent history. The Tide have outscored opponents 148-20 in their first four halves, covering the number each time. There's always a chance they hit a flat spot here against such an inferior opponent, but I am taking my chances with an explosive offense and dominant defense.
Cal +2.5 (vs. Oregon): The Ducks may never recover from last week's epic collapse against Stanford, let alone be ready for their next game. On the flip side, the stars are aligned for Cal. The undefeated Bears are off a bye, will have a raucous home crowd and own one of the nation's top defenses. Hard to go against all those factors, so I won't.
Stanford/Notre Dame over 52.5: Each offense seems to have found its groove. The Irish switched quarterbacks last week and Ian Book justified Brian Kelly's decision. He accounted for five touchdowns after Notre Dame went under the total in its first three games with Brandon Wimbush sputtering on offense. Meanwhile, with opposing defenses focused on running back Bryce Love, Stanford has allowed quarterback K.J. Costello to lead the way. 71.7 percent of Stanford's offensive yards have come through the air, which is the highest mark for any QB under David Shaw.
Six-point teaser: Jags -1.5 (vs. Jets) and Patriots -.5 (vs. Dolphins): If Jacksonville wants to consider itself an elite team, it must bounce back after an embarrassing home loss to Tennessee. The Jags defense is as good as there is and should pose plenty of problems for rookie QB Sam Darnold. As for the Patriots, they have looked awful the past two games. Although I saw very few positives, I trust they will find a way to avoid a three-game deficit in the division. Since 2006, Tom Brady is 5-0 off back-to-back losses. New England has outscored the opposition 171-60 in those games.