When it comes to the NFL draft, we pretty much know two things. First, teams will overdraft quarterbacks, picking them far higher than what a more generic prospect rankings list would suggest they should. Second, a lot of these QBs will either bomb or won't be able to make their teams any better.
In the past five years, there have been 17 quarterbacks selected in the top 40 of the draft. Eleven of them have produced at least one season with a 50.0 Total QBR (equivalent to about top-20 in the NFL), which means more than one-third of them did not. Only six have had at least one season with a 60.0 Total QBR (equivalent to top-12), and only three of them -- Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love, all entering their respective fifth seasons in the league -- ranked in the top 10 of the NFL's Total QBR in 2023, a list that included both five former top-10 picks and three picked 102nd or later.
Last year, the first two picks in the draft were QBs. They were almost inseparable from each other during the draft evaluation process. The top pick, Bryce Young, ranked 29th in Total QBR with a sub-60% completion rate, an 11-to-10 TD-to-INT ratio and a ghastly 62 sacks taken. The second, C.J. Stroud, produced a top-15 Total QBR, threw for more yards than more experienced former top picks like Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford and even won a playoff game.
So yeah, projecting quarterbacks remains an epic crapshoot. Despite having all the data in the world at our fingertips, we aren't really any better at it than we ever were. There are just so many other factors -- the synergy between an offensive coordinator's playbook and a QB's strengths and weaknesses, the patience of the front office, the quality of the supporting cast, the culture of the organization -- that go into whether a player floats or sinks.
We could see five or six QBs picked in the first round on April 25, and at least a couple of them, maybe more, won't do much in the NFL. But if we can't project quality with much confidence, we can still use stats to tell us more about the styles, strengths and weaknesses of each of the top QBs in the draft class. What are their most unique traits? Who are they most similar to in the NFL (or from recent draft prospect lists)? What might that say about their chances of success?
Jump to a top QB prospect:
Daniels | Maye | McCarthy
Nix | Penix | Williams
Caleb Williams, USC Trojans
Ranking from Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 1 overall
