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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

          • ESPN Fantasy
          May 1, 2023, 02:25 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Monday's MLB Games

          By Todd Zola

          Initially, there were only seven games scheduled for Monday, but a rainy weekend in Queens added an old-fashioned matinee doubleheader to the ledger with the Mets entertaining the Braves for a pair. First pitch is 1:10 PM ET which affects everyone whose moves lock when the first game of the day starts. The two postponements really hurt those with Mets and Braves in their head-to-head lineups, but the silver lining is getting an extra game this week from those playing both ends of the twin bill. Possible candidates are Vaughn Grissom (31.5% rostered in ESPN leagues), Eddie Rosario (1.5%) and Sam Hilliard (1.5%) from the Braves and Brett Baty (12.9%), Daniel Vogelbach (1%) and Mark Canha (7.9%) from the home team. Keep in mind the Mets will face two excellent starters with Charlie Morton and Spencer Strider scheduled to toe the Citi Field rubber.

          • While there are a few pitchers with low rostership ranked better, the safest two streaming options square off in Nationals Park with MacKenzie Gore taking the hill for the home team against the visiting Cubs. Gore is quietly pitching well as he's fanned 35 in 27 innings, albeit with 16 walks. Lady Luck has chipped in with a high 80.7% left on base rate, but his expected ERA is still solid, in the 3.50 range. Beware, the Cubs offense has the fourth best wOBA facing righthanders over the first month of the season, but Gore's early success merits steaming consideration.

          • Drew Smyly gets the call for the Cubs. He followed up his near-perfect effort with another solid outing last time out, limiting the Padres to two runs over five frames while punching out four. Even with a month in the books splits against left-handed pitching can be noisy, but Washington sports the fifth-worst wOBA facing lefties, albeit with the second lowest strikeout rate.

          • Those drafting Tony Gonsolin have been patiently waiting to turn him loose, but the safe call may be to keep him reserved for Monday's home tilt with the Phillies. Gonsolin threw 65 pitches in his debut last Wednesday, so he should be able to ramp up to around 80 pitches, which should get him into the fifth. Even so, with innings and strikeouts being integral to fantasy scoring, he's not ready to be a reliable asset. Gonsolin doesn't miss many bats, so he relies on volume to garner adequate points from punch outs and Philadelphia's strikeout rate against righthanders is below average.

          • Ross Stripling was mercifully spared a start in Mexico City, but taking the hill in Minute Maid Park is no picnic. Working as both a starter and in long relief, Stripling hasn't lasted more than 3 1/3 innings since throwing five stanzas in his 2023 debut. Furthermore, the Giants bullpen was taxed over the weekend. All this adds up to a great spot for Houston hitters. Mauricio Dubon (24.2%) and Corey Julks (1.5%) have done a solid job filling in for Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley, respectively.

          Bullpen usage watch for Monday

          By Todd Zola

          • WIth only 14 teams in action today, several busy bullpens enjoy a day of respite. Two of those teams had both their weekend contests washed out and of the other dozen, no closers landed in the danger zone. There may not be any scenarios to avoid, but there are a few on which to focus, beginning with a doubleheader in Queens. The Mets and Braves already had the finale of a scheduled four-game series on today's docket but now they'll play a pair after both games this weekend were rained out. Saturday's makeup will be August 12; technically today's second game covers Sunday's postponement. Other than giving the bullpens extra rest, not playing the two games extended Max Scherzer's suspension. He was initially slated to pitch in today's matinee, but instead he'll be serving the final two games of his suspension.

          • It will be an interesting call for Braves manager Brian Snitker if Atlanta has a lead in the ninth. A.J. Minter has five saves filling in for Raisel Iglesias, but has yielded multiple runs in three of his last four appearances, including five to Miami last Thursday. Smitker may turn to Nick Anderson, Joe Jimenez, Jesse Chavez or Dylan Lee. They are all in contention for holds, especially with Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton taking the hill for the Braves. Speaking of Iglesias, he is getting closer to making his 2023 debut, perhaps as early as Tuesday. He's thrown two clean innings while on rehab, the latest coming yesterday.

          • The decision for Mets manager Buck Showalter is more straightforward as David Robertson has emerged as the primary, but not everyday closer with Adam Ottavino chipping in. The Mets bullpen is down a key cog with Brooks Raley and his eight holds on the IL. Drew Smith, Tommy Hunter and Jeff Brigham will all be asked to help fill the void.

          • Another prime target for relievers on a day most fantasy teams will have holes in their lineup is Houston with the Astros checking in as the team with the best chance to collect wins in the early part of the week. Ryan Pressly logged a save on Sunday, but since he needed only 13 pitches, he's likely available tonight. However, if he works tonight, he could be unavailable tomorrow so picking up Rafael Montero or Hector Neris can result in a hold today, and possibly a save tomorrow.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Blake Snell's pitching outs prop is set at 15.5 pitching outs (-120/-110).

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT sees Snell putting up 18.7 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 71.2% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $36.60.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • THE BAT X projects Snell to throw 102 pitches in this matchup (most on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

          • The Cincinnati Reds projected offense ranks as the worst on the slate.

          • Petco Park grades out as the No. 24 venue in the league for batting average, per THE BAT projection system.

          • Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and this game projects for the second-coldest weather of all games today at 58 degrees.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The Cincinnati Reds have nine hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Snell in this matchup.

          • Snell's fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (93.9 mph) below where it was last year (95.3 mph).