Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 11, 2023, 03:15 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Monday's MLB games

By Todd Zola

An already action-packed Monday schedule is embellished by a day-night doubleheader in Citizens Bank Park with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Atlanta Braves with the opener at 1:35 p.m. ET. Every club but the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers will play under the lights.
One of the many impressive rookie pitchers is the slate's top ranked streamer with Gavin Williams (11.5% rostered) and the Cleveland Guardians visiting the San Francisco Giants. Williams' control hasn't been sharp lately as he's walked nine over his last 15 1/3 innings. For the season, the Giants walk rate is above average, but they've been one of the least potent offenses with a righty on the hill for the past month, with one of the reasons being a below average walk rate.
The next highest ranked streamer may be a surprise, but Jose Quintana (10.2%) has quietly pitched well for a Mets team playing out the string. Quintana's 3.00 ERA over nine starts is artificially low as he's only fanned 39 in 54 innings, but averaging six innings a start is noteworthy, especially in today's landscape. The veteran southpaw isn't likely to pad his strikeouts against an Arizona Diamondbacks club that puts the ball in play, but even so, the lineup sports the 11th lowest wOBA with a lefty on the hill.
Reid Detmers (28.8%) has righted the ship following a pair of August disasters where he surrendered seven runs in consecutive games, yielding five homers in those 6 1/3 innings. Since, Detmers has allowed just one long ball in four starts, covering 23 frames. On Monday, the Los Angeles Angels with try to play spoiler in T-Mobile Park in the opener of a series with the Seattle Mariners. Detmers lines up for a productive effort, facing a lineup with the second highest strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill over the last month.
It's early in the fantasy week to play hunches, but there is a narrative for Josiah Gray (11.1%) to turn things around with the hopes of finishing the season strong. It's been an inconsistent season for the 25-year-old right-hander as he's teased a breakthrough on a couple of occasions, only to take a step back. He's been in a late-season rut, but the Washington Nationals have given Gray some extra rest prior to his Monday road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Gray draws a nice spot for a rebound, drawing the offense with the 10th lowest wOBA and 11th highest strikeout rate facing righties since the break.
Doubleheaders are a great place to target batters since they have a chance to double up on their production. The key is identifying the hitters with the best chance of playing both ends. The Braves are coasting to the NL East crown and are closing in on the top seed in the senior circuit, so they could give their bench players some work. This hurts the appeal of Orlando Arcia (32.4%) with lefty swinger Nicky Lopez a logical candidate to play one of the games since both will be against right-handed hurler. Eddie Rosario (15.8%) is a tougher call since he'll enjoy the platoon edge in both contests. However, Atlanta may opt to give Kevin Pillar some action.
The Phillies are more likely to play their best, especially since they have an off day on Thursday. The caveat is most of the potent Philadelphia lineup is rostered, with Brandon Marsh (9.5%) and Jake Cave (0.2%) the best candidates of those available in more than half of ESPN leagues to play a pair.

Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.2	Framber Valdez	L	OAK	99.3%	-305	8.5	58%	6.4	2.3	6.6
13.5	Dylan Cease	R	KC	87.8%	--	--	62%	5.9	2.3	7.1
13.4	Brandon Woodruff	R	MIA	96.5%	-160	7.5	58%	5.7	2.2	6.6
12.5	Logan Gilbert	R	LAA	97.3%	-235	7.5	58%	5.8	2.3	6.3
12.1	Tyler Glasnow	R	@MIN	94.8%	-125	7.5	55%	5.5	2.3	6.5
11.3	Gavin Williams	R	@SF	14.5%	122	7.5	57%	5.2	1.8	5.1
11.0	Charlie Morton	R	@PHI, Gm. 1	93.1%	--	--	50%	5.6	2.6	6.6
10.7	Jose Quintana	L	ARI	15.5%	-140	9	56%	5.6	2.0	4.8
10.7	Mason Miller	R	@HOU	4.1%	240	8.5	42%	5.4	2.2	5.4
10.7	Chris Bassitt	R	TEX	92.4%	-145	9	58%	5.9	2.8	5.5
10.6	Jesus Luzardo	L	@MIL	84.2%	135	7.5	42%	5.5	2.5	6.2
9.6	Gavin Stone	R	SD	0.8%	-170	9.5	56%	4.7	1.7	4.6
9.5	Sonny Gray	R	TB	92.3%	105	7.5	45%	5.2	2.3	5.3
9.4	Brady Singer	R	@CWS	52.7%	--	--	38%	5.8	2.8	5.3
8.9	Reid Detmers	L	@SEA	30.0%	192	7.5	42%	5.1	2.4	5.6
8.7	Alex Cobb	R	CLE	55.3%	-145	7.5	43%	5.4	2.4	4.8
8.5	Taijuan Walker	R	ATL, Gm. 1	31.1%	--	--	50%	5.4	2.7	4.9
8.1	Michael Lorenzen	R	ATL, Gm. 2	26.9%	--	--	52%	5.5	2.9	4.8
7.6	Dean Kremer	R	STL	39.2%	-165	9.5	56%	5.5	3.1	4.6
7.5	Pedro Avila	R	@LAD	0.9%	143	9.5	44%	4.9	2.3	4.4
7.4	Zach Davies	R	@NYM	1.3%	118	9	44%	5.0	2.3	4.1
7.4	Kyle Wright	R	@PHI, Gm. 2	40.2%	--	--	48%	4.1	1.8	4.1
7.4	Dane Dunning	R	@TOR	25.9%	122	9	42%	5.4	3.0	4.9
7.2	Andre Jackson	R	WSH	0.6%	--	--	54%	4.7	2.3	4.2
6.8	Clarke Schmidt	R	@BOS	14.2%	110	9.5	50%	5.0	3.1	4.9
6.8	Kutter Crawford	R	NYY	4.9%	-130	9.5	50%	4.6	2.7	4.7
6.0	Patrick Corbin	L	@PIT	3.0%	--	--	46%	5.4	3.3	4.5
5.6	Dakota Hudson	R	@BAL	3.3%	140	9.5	44%	5.3	3.0	3.5
4.5	Jordan Wicks	L	@COL	21.2%	-190	11.5	56%	4.9	3.9	5.0
1.7	Kyle Freeland	L	CHC	6.4%	158	11.5	44%	5.1	4.6	4.1

Bullpen usage watch for Saturday

By Todd Zola

The Toronto Blue Jays summoned Jordan Romano in the top of the ninth with a 5-2 lead over the Kansas City Royals. Romano loaded the bases with one out, but retired the next two hitters to escape with his 34th save. Romano's pitch count was an elevated 28, which came on top of 29 tossed on Friday. Romano has pitched three times in four days often this season, but not with such a heavy workload heading into the potential back-to-back scenario. Jordan Hicks (7.1%) didn't pitch yesterday, so he's the likely fill-in closer for the Blue Jays on Monday when they host the Texas Rangers.
Camilo Doval captured his 37th save on Sunday when he sealed the deal in the San Francisco Giants 6-3 home victory over the Colorado Rockies. Despite allowing a hit, Doval needed just 12 pitches, giving him 28 over the past three days. However, usage patterns show Doval will be available if needed tonight when the Giants entertain the Cleveland Guardians.
Not only did the Milwaukee Brewers ask Devin Williams to maintain a scoreless tie in the bottom of the ninth in the Bronx, he was also preserving a no-hitter after starter Corbin Burnes left following eight no-hit frames. Williams came through, but the New York Yankees ended up winning 4-3 in 13 innings. Williams tossed 13 pitches, but he hadn't appeared for over a week so he's ready if needed tonight when the Brewers host the Miami Marlins.
A split doubleheader in the City of Brotherly Love puts the bullpens of the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves in the spotlight. With two chances to collect a save, Phillies closer Craig Kimbrel (41.4% rostered) is the top pickup. Jose Alvardao has settled in as the top setup man while chipping in with the occasional save. For the Braves, closer Raisel Iglesias worked yesterday, but since he only threw seven pitches, he's in line to close one, but probably not both or today's contests. Kirby Yates and A.J. Minter have been handling setup duties, with Yates more likely to inherit ninth inning duties in the nightcap if Iglesias pitches in the opener.

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	9/10	P3	Strk
Jordan Romano	TOR	89.7%	28	57	1
Camilo Doval	SF	89.8%	12	28	1
Devin Williams	MIL	96.2%	13	13	1

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Eddie Rosario (ATL, LF -- 16%) at Taijuan Walker and Michael Lorenzen
Orlando Arcia (ATL, 2B -- 32%) at Walker and Lorenzen
Christopher Morel (CHC, CF -- 21%) at Kyle Freeland
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B -- 20%) vs. Patrick Corbin
Brandon Marsh (PHI, LF -- 10%) vs. Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 21%) vs. Jordan Wicks
Jake Cave (PHI, LF -- 0%) vs. Morton and Wright
Triston Casas (BOS, 1B -- 43%) vs. Clarke Schmidt
Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF -- 27%) at Dean Kremer
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 10%) vs. Jordan Wicks

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

Carlos Correa (MIN, SS -- 70%) vs. Tyler Glasnow
Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 63%) vs. Reid Detmers
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B -- 53%) at Alex Cobb
Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B -- 60%) vs. Dane Dunning
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B -- 74%) at Brandon Woodruff
Josh Bell (MIA, 1B -- 61%) at Brandon Woodruff
MJ Melendez (KC, C -- 53%) at Dylan Cease
Jonah Heim (TEX, C -- 73%) at Chris Bassitt
Isaac Paredes (TB, 3B -- 75%) at Sonny Gray
Corbin Carroll (ARI, LF -- 99%) at Jose Quintana

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

Chicago Cubs at Kyle Freeland
Atlanta Braves at Michael Lorenzen
Colorado Rockies vs. Jordan Wicks

Prop of the Day

Jesus Luzardo O/U 5.5 strikeouts (+110/-140)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Luzardo putting up 6.1 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.4% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $22.56.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

When estimating his strikeout ability, Jesus Luzardo projects as the 19th-best SP in the league right now, per THE BAT.
Luzardo has averaged 93.9 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 79th percentile.
The Milwaukee Brewers have three hitters in their projected lineup today with a high underlying K% via THE BAT X. (Willy Adames, Brian Anderson, Joey Wiemer).
The weather forecast predicts the most suitable pitching weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

The Milwaukee Brewers have eight batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Luzardo in this matchup, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.
Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luzardo today.