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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          • ESPN Fantasy
          Sep 30, 2023, 03:30 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Saturday's MLB games

          By Mike Sheets

          • As we enter the final weekend of the regular season, Cristopher Sanchez (15% rostered in ESPN leagues) stands out as one of the day's top streamers in a road matchup against the New York Mets. The owner of a 3.52 ERA over his last eight starts with more than a K per inning, Sanchez has notched double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three outings, including a matchup against these same Mets his last time out. The Mets have been below average versus southpaws this year, and we should see Sanchez exploit them once again on Saturday.

          • Since coming off the injured list in mid-August, Michael Wacha (55%) has been a solid addition to the San Diego Padres' rotation. Take out a seven-run blowup against the Los Angeles Dodgers (a start where most fantasy managers would have benched him anyway), and he has a 3.34 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 27 2/3 frames. Wacha also lasted seven innings in his most recent start, which was the first time since May that he pitched seven stanzas. A Chicago White Sox lineup that ranks dead last in September with a 68 wRC+ doesn't pose much of a threat this weekend.

          • Mike Clevinger (32%) will take the mound for the White Sox on Saturday against Wacha and the Padres. The right-hander has righted the ship since a blowup outing in early September, hurling four straight quality starts with a 1.61 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and 21 Ks against zero strikeouts. The Padres offense has been hot in September (124 wRC+), but they'll likely be eliminated from the playoffs by the time this game rolls around, so maybe we'll see a lineup that's missing some starters.

          • The St. Louis Cardinals will send rookie Drew Rom to the mound against the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday, and the lefty has not looked sharp since arriving in the majors, getting tagged for a 7.98 ERA and 2.05 WHIP across seven starts. In those seven outings, he's made it out of the fifth inning only twice, allowing a .339/.400/.571 slash line to righty batters. Jonathan India (62%), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (14%), Tyler Stephenson (36%), and Noelvi Marte (3%) all get the platoon edge in this prime weekend matchup.

          • Joan Adon is ranked as one of the lowest-ranked pitchers on the slate, and that should come as no surprise given the 6.87 ERA he's posted over his last eight starts. A matchup against the Atlanta Braves doesn't figure to improve that mark. While the big names in the Braves' lineup are already rostered, Marcell Ozuna (79%), Eddie Rosario (13%), Orlando Arcia (31%) are still available in some leagues as streamers.

          Bullpen usage for Saturday

          By Todd Zola

          • Josh Hader notched his 33rd save last night, throwing 20 pitches in the process. Hader previously pitched on Wednesday, with those 17 tosses giving him 37 over the past three days. If the San Diego Padres, or even the opponent Chicago White Sox had something on the line today, Hader would probably be available. However, the safe play is reserving the southpaw. The conundrum is identifying an in-house fill-in as Scott Barlow, Robert Suarez and Tom Cosgrove have also appeared twice over the prior three days and Luis Garcia has struggled lately. Barlow is the best bet, though looking at another bullpen for help is the better approach.

          • Ryan Pressly recorded his 31st save last night, leaving him two shy of his personal best set last season. Currently, however, Pressly's main objective is helping the Houston Astros secure a playoff berth so they can defend their championship. Pressly used 18 pitches last night, just two days after tossing 24. Even with a playoff berth on the line, appearing today with 42 pitches accrued since Wednesday isn't a sure thing, especially since today isn't a must win. Houston can clinch a spot with a win either today or Sunday. Bryan Abreu is well rested, so he's the likely replacement. Abreu hasn't yielded a run since before the All-Star break, throwing 26 2/3 shutout innings with 33 punch outs, though he has walked 12 in that span.

          • Tayler Scott (27.2% rostered) captured a save in his first appearance since returning from paternity league. Even though the Miami Marlins are leading the suspended game with the New York Mets scheduled to be finished on Monday, they'd love to avoid needing to revisit Citi Field and take care of business this weekend. If Scott is available, he's a great pickup.

          • Speaking of the Mets, they play a twin bill with the Philadelphia Phillies today. There is nothing on the line for either club as the Phillies are locked into the top National League wild card. As such, neither team is likely to ask the same reliever to close both games. The Phillies will likely summon Jose Alvarado (20.4%) for the first save, with Gregory Soto (2.2%) and Craig Kimbrel (42.7%) in play for the second. Adam Ottavino (7.8%) is probably first in line for the Mets with Drew Smith and Brooks Raley in the mix for the other possible save.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Saturday

          THE BAT X is a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Prop of the Day

          Clarke Schmidt 4.5 strikeouts (-160/+120).

          PREDICTION

          • THE BAT sees Schmidt putting up 4.4 Strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 44.9% of the time.

          • THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $21.18.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • The offense with the second-most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today via the BAT X is the Kansas City Royals with a 26.7% underlying K%.

          • A Pitchers Umpire (Jeremy Riggs) is scheduled behind the plate in today's game.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • THE BAT X projects Schmidt to throw 81 pitches in this game (11th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

          • The No. 2 field in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, per THE BAT, is Kauffman Stadium.

          • The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

          • Schmidt's fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (91.7 mph) has been significantly slower than his seasonal rate (92.9 mph).