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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

          Erick Fedde faces a Mariners lineup that has a penchant for striking out. Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJun 10, 2024, 03:29 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Second Impressions

          Competing in fantasy sports requires overcoming several cognitive biases. One is a sort of priming bias where our first impression sticks with us, even if subsequent events are different.

          A great example is how a young starting pitcher embarks on his career. Good or bad, his first few outings, especially his debut, frame our evaluation of the young hurler. It's the way the human mind works.

          The adept fantasy manager must consciously overcome this bias and continue to reanalyze the pitcher as he adds to his game log. Is his control and/or command improving? Is he adjusting his pitch mix or sequencing? Was he aided by Lady Luck or snake bit early? The Houston Astros selected the contract of SP Spencer Arrighetti in early April. He didn't come with much prospect pedigree, which served to feed an early negative bias. Arrighetti debuted against the Kansas City Royals. He yielded seven runs on seven hits in three innings, satisfying confirmation bias. Let the priming begin!

          Through five starts, Arrighetti's ERA was 8.44, along with a bloated 2.02 WHIP. There's nothing to see here, right? Not so fast. Under the hood, Arrighetti was fanning hitters at a solid 23.6% clip. Sure, he was issuing a walk 12.3% of the time, but if Arrighetti could cut down on the free passes, there could be something here. In addition, a .413 BABIP and 62.5% left on base mark indicate he incurred some misfortune to begin his career. A 4.48 xFIP hinted at what could manifest once Arrighetti enjoyed some regression, with an even better level in play with improved control.

          Over the ensuing five efforts, Arrighetti registered a 3.55 ERA with an associated 3.76 xFIP. His walk rate has been a slightly improved 11.9% over these 25 1/3 frames while his strikeout rate has elevated to 27.5%. His BABIP fell precipitously, but it's still a high .328 in this span. Arrighetti's left on base normalized to 75.1% over this stretch, fueling the ERA decline.

          Along with slightly better control and BABIP and LOB% corrections, Arrighetti surrendered just one homer over his last five outings, as opposed to four in his initial quintet. Small sample clouds the analysis, but this could be a sign of improving command.

          The Astros are adept at working within a pitcher's repertoire to find what work's best. Over his last five starts, Arrighetti reduced his slider usage by about 10%, while increasing curveball deployment at the same rate.

          It's time to overcome preconceived notions and recognize that Arrighetti has taken some strides. Clearly, there is still work to be done with control, but the 24-year-old right-hander is trending in the right direction. On Monday, Arrighetti (2.0% rostered in ESPN leagues) is in a favorable position to keep arrow ticking up. He has a road date with the San Francisco Giants in one of the league's best pitching venues. At home, the Giants offense ranks below average, with one of the lowest walk rates in the league.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • New York Yankees OF Juan Soto completed his usual pregame routine prior to last night's interleague finale with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he still missed all three games of the weekend set. The Yankees avoided being swept, winning 6-4. Earlier in the day, SP Gerrit Cole pitched in a rehab start with Double-A Somerset. He threw 4 2/3 innings, yielding one run on two hits, striking out four while issuing no walks. Cole totaled 57 pitches. The plan is for at least one more rehab outing, with a return later this month.

          • Cole wasn't the only former Cy Young Award winner pitching on rehab yesterday as Texas Rangers SP Max Scherzer tossed four shutout frames for Triple-A Round Rock, surrendering just one hit with five strikeouts and only one free pass. Scherzer tossed 53 pitches, maxing out at 94.8 mph. Like Cole, Scherzer will complete at least one more rehab effort, with the hopes of a late June return to the majors. On the field, SS Corey Seager missed his third straight game due to a strained left hamstring. The Rangers hope he can play when they return to action tomorrow in Chavez Ravine for a matchup with the Dodgers.

          • For the second time in five days, Astros 3B Alex Bregman was hit in the hand by a pitch. Yesterday it was in the wrist area, forcing him out of the contest. Last Wednesday, Bregman was hit in the back of his hand, but fortunately he avoided a major injury both times. Even so, Bregman is questionable for tonight's road date with the San Francisco Giants.

          • Padres 3B Manny Machado missed his fourth straight start on Sunday. He was able to pinch hit last Thursday but stayed on the bench for the subsequent three games against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Machado has been sidelined because of a strained right hip flexor. He remains questionable for tonight when the Padres open a home set against the Oakland Athletics.

          • The Seattle Mariners will be without 1B Ty France for at least 10 days after placing him on the IL due to a hairline fracture in his right heel. France has been in a walking boot since being hit in the foot by a pitch on Friday night. There is currently no timeline for France's return. The club called up 1B Tyler Locklear prior to yesterday's game. Locklear struck out in his first MLB at-bat, but he later clubbed a run-scoring double and came around to score in the seventh inning, helping the Mariners to a lead over the Kansas City Royals. The Mariners ended up winning the contest 6-5 in 10 innings.

          • One bullpen note from Seattle is that they deployed RP Andres Munoz in the eighth inning with a 3-1 lead, as SS Bobby Witt Jr. was due up third in the inning. Munoz retired the first two Royals, then caught Witt Jr, looking for the third out.

          • Chicago Cubs 2B/SS Nico Hoerner didn't play yesterday. Hoerner last appeared on Thursday when he was hit in the hand by a pitch. Even though he was diagnosed with a small fracture, the club hopes Hoerner can return to the lineup once the swelling goes down. The Cubs have today off before heading to St. Petersburg for a series with the Tampa Bay Rays.

          • Colorado Rockies 2B Adael Amador made his MLB debut, going 1-for-3 with a stolen base in the Rockies' 5-1 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. Amador was summoned to fill in at the keystone while regular 2B Brendan Rodgers is on the IL nursing a sore hamstring. The Rockies close out a road trip with a series in Minnesota beginning tonight. Later in the week they will open a 10-game homestand.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Monday features only seven games, kicking off at 6:50 p.m. ET with the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Baltimore Orioles. However, don't wait too long to check the available free agent pool as the inventory of spot starters is thin.

          • Lost in the Chicago White Sox early season woes is a renaissance season for SP Erick Fedde. Fedde spent 2023 with the NC Dinos in the Korean Baseball Organization where he revamped his grips and added a sweeper. Through 13 starts, Fedde posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, which is supported by a 3.51 xFIP. His 23.5% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rates are career bests. On Monday, Fedde has a chance to pad his strikeouts with a road date in the Pacific Northwest. Fedde will face a Seattle Mariners lineup sporting the league's highest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill.

          • Minnesota Twins' SP Chris Paddack hasn't pitched as poorly as his 5.26 ERA suggests, with the associated 3.82 xFIP and 3.79 SIERA painting a rosier picture. He's been victimized by a .337 BABIP and 70.9% left on base level. Paddack's 16.4% K-BB% is a respectable 33rd among qualified starters. On Monday, Paddack's ratios could improve with a home date against the Colorado Rockies. The visitors tote a below average road wOBA fueled by the fourth worst strikeout rate versus righties into Target Field.

          • Betting tip of the day: Oakland Athletics SP Joey Estes has made five starts. He's fanned at least five in four of them, falling one short in his only bad outing. In that game, he still struck out four over 3 2/3 IP, but the Houston Astros crushed him for eight earned runs. On Monday, Estes faces a San Diego Padres lineup with the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league. Even so, I'm betting on Estes to keep the streak of punching out at least four per start and taking over 3.5 strikeouts (-105).

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday