Player projections are great. In presenting a loose road map, they help steer fantasy managers in a rational direction while navigating through the all-important draft. But, like most guidebooks, the how-to track is only suggestive. There's plenty of room for subjectivity and personal prognostication. A little intuition can also go a long way. In that spirit, here are my first 20 draft selections, sequenced and explained, in step with ESPN standard points leagues.
Resources: Projections | Mock draft | Goalie depth chart | Most added/dropped
Draft Slot 1: Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche
Even if the NHL's top fantasy operator regresses a smidge across every single category in ESPN standard points competition, he still stands to outperform everyone else (with the possible exception of my second overall selection). Tough to argue against such a compelling selling point.
Draft Slot 2: Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers
If not for MacKinnon's Hart Trophy-winning turn and fantasy league domination in 2023-24, the league's best player would serve as my first pick overall. It's still a toss-up, knowing McDavid is a season removed from scoring 64 goals on 352 shots. Whether he chooses to set others up (last season) or score more himself (2022-23), the points will be there.
Draft Slot 3: Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
So what if he doesn't earn another 100 assists this campaign? Would 80-plus, as achieved the season before, truly serve as a letdown? Yes, the power play looks different with Jake Guentzel instead of Steven Stamkos, and sure, adjustments need to be made, but let's hush any serious hand-wringing. A 120-point run, with a substantial fraction counting with the extra skater, would still delight even the most demanding fantasy manager.
Draft Slot 4: Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
I'm only concerned about his durability. We're not even underway yet, and the league's premiere goal scorer is already managing some upper-body issues. But 69 goals, plus the shots and hits, and all else that helped mold Matthews into the second-most-valuable fantasy performer in 2023-24 are impossible to ignore. Only Philadelphia forward Ryan Poehling -- who, ahem, fell well short of 69 goals -- blocked more shots than the Leafs' center. Again, did I mention the 69 goals?
Draft Slot 5: J.T. Miller, F, Vancouver Canucks
In his past three seasons, through which he missed only four games, Miller has 101 goals and 183 assists while registering more hits than anyone else with comparable scoring numbers. His 40 power-play points this past season rank sixth in the league. Still, some fantasy managers are skeptical the 31-year-old can keep it up. Not me. After stints with the Rangers and Lightning, Miller is a different player as a Canuck.
Draft Slot 6: Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers
After experiencing a minor dip through 2023-24, he'll score 50 goals again this season, and likely another 70 assists. Look for last year's power-play points sum, playing with you-know-who, to also jump back up from 39 to around 50, along with his number of shots.
Draft Slot 7: Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche
Offering that little bit extra over the blue-line field, the Colorado defender is the only player I'm targeting in the first round at his position. Preciously consistent, Makar finished first in power-play points, second in assists and goals, and third in shots in 2023-24. Only Nashville's Roman Josi neared his table-topping fantasy total, despite playing five more games. After registering only 35 hits, that total should also rise a bit.
Draft Slot 8: David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins
If he can score 47 goals on a line with Pavel Zacha, no question, he's capable of 55 -- 60 alongside new center Elias Lindholm. Watch Pastrnak's power-play point tally also increase with the ex-Flame/Hurricane now aboard. As shot-happy as they come, only MacKinnon fired on net more often than Pasta this past season.
Draft Slot 9: Mikko Rantanen, F, Colorado Avalanche
Like Pastrnak, Rantanen presents as exceptionally sturdy. Having missed only two regular-season contests in his past two campaigns -- and not many more in previous years -- the Avalanche winger is as reliable as it gets. If slightly overshadowed by his Hart Trophy-winning centerman, the 27-year-old nonetheless warrants first-round respect for averaging 1.27 points/game -- and almost half a power-play point/contest -- since 2020-21, including 55 goals just two seasons ago.
Draft Slot 10: Kirill Kaprizov, F, Minnesota Wild
Somewhat quietly, Kaprizov averaged a whopping 2.9 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in ESPN standard competition this past season, fifth best amongst regularly skating forwards. In his prime at 27 years of age, the dynamic winger has one year beyond 2024-25 left on his contract. Don't be surprised if he scores 50 (and another 60 assists) this year.
Draft Slot 11: Roman Josi, D, Nashville Predators
By this point, assuming the glut of next-level forwards is spoken for, one of which is already on my roster, and unless there's an early run on top-tier fantasy netminders, I'm selecting the best all-around defenseman not named Makar. Any concerns that Josi's 96-point showing in 2022-23 was an extraordinary glitch were put to bed after last year's roundup of 85 points. The Predators defender also comfortably led all blueliners with 268 shots.
Draft Slot 12: Elias Pettersson, F, Vancouver Canucks
A bit ornery after last spring's flat run that bled into the playoffs, Pettersson feels "recharged" and wants to make quick amends to start 2024-25. It helps that the extended business of signing a new contract is now well in the rearview, and his bothersome knee feels much less bothersome. Even with his late-season fizzling out, Pettersson still averaged 2.5 FPPG in ESPN standard leagues. The fresh insertion of ex-Bruin Jake DeBrusk on his wing will help the center better the 100-point mark once more.
Draft Slot 13: Filip Forsberg, F, Nashville Predators
Only eight other forwards rewarded managers with more fantasy points in conventional ESPN leagues this past season. One of the game's more well-rounded performers, the underrated left-winger should also see his special teams' totals increase on a new power play that now also includes Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault.
Draft Slot 14: Juuse Saros, G, Nashville Predators
Assuming there isn't a premature run on top-tier goalies, the undisputed No. 1 for an improved Predators team should remain available once several elite forwards are off the draft board. After starting more games than anyone else this past year (65), and appearing in 64 and 67 respectively in the two previous seasons, Saros is again forecast to play well upward of 60 games, while collecting an impressive number of fantasy-friendly wins and saves. The offseason additions of Stamkos, Marchessault and defender Brady Skjei will help to that end.
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Draft Slot 15: Jack Hughes, F, New Jersey Devils
Can he stay healthy? If so, under the fresh tutelage of coach Sheldon Keefe, the sky's the limit, production-wise, for the Devils' No. 1 center. Falling just shy of 100 points through 78 games in 2022-23, the still-only 23-year-old is now fit, and poised to bust through that mark. Having an in-tune Timo Meier on his flank will help. Despite competing in only 62 games this past campaign, Hughes still led his squad with 31 power-play points and 274 shots.
Draft Slot 16: Artemi Panarin, F, New York Rangers
As long as he shoots as much as last year. After erupting for 49 goals and 71 assists, why wouldn't he? Forging great on-ice rapport with linemates Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere, Panarin isn't likely to fiddle much with his current on-ice formula. Note: At the time of this writing, the Rangers were holding their star forward out of training camp action because of an injury concern. Hopefully that ends up no biggie.
Draft Slot 17: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres
The freshly anointed captain of the Sabres offers substantial extra in fantasy competition that compensates for hits and blocked shots. Toss in a top-drawer sum of shots -- only defender Roman Josi fired more on net in 2023-24 -- along with a 70-point ceiling, and you've got yourself a fantasy defenseman that rivals Makar and the aforementioned Predator.
Draft Slot 18: William Nylander, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
Shifting one of the league's most offensively gifted players to center the second line could work well in the Leafs' overall favor. But not skating on the same five-on-five unit as Auston Matthews is also likely to affect Nylander's personal production. And not in positive fashion. For me, that concern drops the winger out of top-15 consideration. We'll see how new head coach Craig Berube shuffles out his top-six as the season wears on.
Draft Slot 19: Sidney Crosby, F, Pittsburgh Penguins
Just imagine if he was surrounded by more top-end talent. A mildly resurgent performance from Evgeni Malkin should at least help inflate Crosby's stats with the extra skater. The generational center's only fantasy shortcoming in 2023-24.
Draft Slot 20: Brady Tkachuk, F, Ottawa Senators
My top-20 wild card, he hits like a player possessed and averages more than four shots/game. Plus there's the remarkably large number of penalty minutes to relish, if that's your fantasy bag. The Ottawa captain, if healthy, is also going to exceed 80 points once again this year. Mark it.
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