There's only two rounds to go. With that in mind, the league's final player hierarchy is taking shape after a season of moulding. As such, the power rankings should really start to align with expectations of who is in the running during awards season, particularly for those in the top 10.
Nathan Sobey slides out for now.
All numbers are courtesy of Spatialjam.com and jordanmcnbl.com (particularly those pertaining to play types).
20. Mitch McCarron (Melbourne United)
Last week: 20
McCarron fights off Thomas Abercrombie (closing in hot) after a stellar tag-team defensive effort with Shea Ili against Bryce Cotton on Wednesday.
Against the Wildcats, we saw a frenzied United team defence that largely played smart, and stayed disciplined.
McCarron encapsulated that. It was a hyped, energetic performance in which he was everywhere, making life difficult for Cotton, flying in to tap rebounds away from enemies, even going backdoor on Cotton for an easy score. He and Ili funnelled Cotton to attempts almost exclusively inside the arc.
Offensively, when McCarron is aggressive at getting to the cup, good things happen. He is an underrated passer.
19. Terrico White (Perth Wildcats)
Last week: 18
What a weird season for White so far. He has oscillated wildly from passive floor spacer to the devastating shot-maker we saw in the playoffs who can singlehandedly snatch a game away in the span of four possessions.
Sure, he's been sore, but so have a lot of players. Sometimes, he just seems to slink out of the contest.
In some ways, he is the wing version of Daniel Johnson. Is this a repeat of last year? Are we seeing Regular Season White? Is there a switch for the playoffs?
18. Eric Griffin (Adelaide 36ers)
Last week: 17
In 12:43 minutes of action against the Breakers, Eric Griffin scored four points (2-of-3 shooting), had one turnover, and one block. He was largely a ball-watching presence, with legs glued to the floor, and a general disinterest in guarding.
The 36ers's pathetic defence was not entirely on him, but his performance was symptomatic of a defence that can't stop anyone - it was a flimsy, embarrassing effort against the Breakers that had a general lack of fight.
There was atonement on Sunday, to the tune of 13 points (4-of-12 shooting), 10 rebounds, four assists and two blocks against the Phoenix. Griffin did not shoot well, but the focused intent was there - his rebounding and commitment to chasing loose balls is often a gauge of this.
17. Sek Henry (New Zealand Breakers)
Last week: unranked
Welcome back, Sek!
For the round, Henry averaged 17.5 points on 68 percent shooting from the field, including 69 percent from deep. He also averaged 3.5 rebounds and five assists. He was the best player on the floor in both games for the Breakers in round 18.
Scotty Hopson has always garnered the headlines as the most prominent Breaker, but Henry has been a steady two-way presence all season. He has been their most valuable piece in being able to toggle into multiple modes: as a spread-the-floor spot-up guy; as an isolation threat; and as their most steady lead playmaker.
16. Shawn Long (Melbourne United)
Last week: 14
We know what Long is capable of - he almost crammed Will Magnay through the basket in United's clash against the Bullets.
Inconsistency in application (and focus) has often been the bane of his NBL tenure. Too often interspersed between "see incredible" highlights are bone-headed, silly plays like goaltending, and arguing no-calls whilst not running in transition.
Those things do not help the cause.
15. Melo Trimble (Melbourne United)
Last week: 15
United flipped a defensive switch against the Wildcats, but Trimble's downward spiral continued as he finished with six points (1-of-7 shooting), three rebounds, three assists, three turnovers and one steal. He was benched for Shea Ili.
That makes his performance against the Bullets all the more remarkable.
Starting off the bench seemed to galvanise Trimble, as he powered United after a slow start. Trimble seemed to play with more looseness and joy; he had 23 points (8-of-9 shooting) and four assists at the half, and finished with 36 points (12-of-18 shooting), three rebounds, six assists and two steals.
United's defence was solid across the round - that they could not pull out the double-win was due to their inability to close out defensive possessions on the glass.
14. Daniel Johnson (Adelaide 36ers)
Last week: 16
In the debacle against the Breakers, Johnson created the first 14 points for the 36ers, including scoring 12 first quarter points himself, whilst dishing a dime for a cutting Obi Kyei.
He had 20 first half points and finished with 24 points (9-of-18 shooting), nine rebounds, three assists, one block. In a must-win game, Johnson appeared to be the only 36er fully focused, at least on the offensive end.
Johnson was not efficient against the Phoenix (22 points from 20 attempts), but there was the intent to graft, and the willingness to dig in.
13. Jerome Randle (Adelaide 36ers)
Last week: 13
Randle played under 19 minutes against the Breakers and finished with 10 points, three rebounds, six assists, and four turnovers in a muted display.
On Sunday, it was a different type of quiet: A highly focused performance as he surged into the Phoenix defence on the way to 35 points (14-of-24 shooting), seven rebounds, and four assists (three turnovers).
Randle was 4-of-10 shooting from deep, after a tough month from beyond the arc.
12. Scotty Hopson (New Zealand Breakers)
Last week: 12
After a scalding offensive run, Hopson's decline in efficiency was bound to happen. He did not shoot well in round 18, but he continues to exhibit a stronger sense of attention to detail on the defensive end.
Hopson's main assignments will never be taxing, but the fact that he is no longer leaking easy points on that end is a big win for the Breakers.
11. Cam Oliver (Cairns Taipans)
Last week: 11
As the game unfolded on Friday night, it felt increasingly like a celebration; a coronation of the Taipans as a title chance as they beat a team masquerading as an NBL outfit senseless.
No one embodied this more than Cam Oliver, with his thunderous rim-rocking, shot-blocking presence. He had 17 points (6-of-12 shooting), five rebounds, one assist, one steal, and four blocks against the Hawks.
One season-long quibble though: Oliver almost never boxes out. In postseason action when the possession game is so crucial, will that come back to bite the Taipans?
10. Andrew Bogut (Sydney Kings)
Last week: 9
Usually the rules are that injuries drop you out of the top 20.
But this close to the end of the season, and with these rankings now reflecting the real hierarchy of the league, the league's best centre remains.
9. Nick Kay (Perth Wildcats)
Last week: 10
Here are Kay's averages for the round: 22 points (51.9 percent from the field, including 40 percent from deep), nine rebounds, and 2.5 assists.
It would be downright shocking if he was not on an All NBL team.
Kay is often described as being good to really good in almost everything. But he is also elite in many things that matter, such as an offensive rebounding, an indomitable motor, and most importantly, heart.
8. John Roberson (South East Melbourne Phoenix)
Last week: 8
I cannot get over how jumpy Roberson is on defence - he tries, he flies around, but he always seems over-eager and pings into the wrong direction.
Roberson's outside shooting, despite the added attention round-after-round, has been truly incredible. It has been #SeeIncredible.
7. Casper Ware (Sydney Kings)
Last week: 3
It was hard work for Ware at RAC Arena, as has been the case for most of the season, as he reverted back to his shooting woes from deep.
Like Terrico White, Ware has had a strange season that has been punctuated by inefficiency and random bouts of offensive wizardry (hello, United).
Per play-type data via jordanmcnbl.com, Ware has been below league average in most actions in which he has registered at least 20 such plays. Weirdly, isolations have been easily his most abundant play-type, and he's above league average in that regard.
6. Mitch Creek (South East Melbourne Phoenix)
Last week: 7
Is MVP-level Mitch Creek is back? Creek likely won't slot into the discussion anymore, a by-product of both his dip in form and his team's overall fortunes, but his first half of the season should not be discounted.
Now, apparently pain-free again, he is producing like he was earlier in the year when he was the league's pin-up.
One of the most underrated aspects of his game has been his playmaking - that laser-like dart he threw, from beyond half-court, to Ben Madgen in the final quarter against the 36ers was sublime.
5. D.J. Newbill (Cairns Taipans)
Last week: 5
Amidst Cairns' playoff-clinching victory parade past the Hawks, Newbill again flashed why he has ascended to one of the top players in this league, including nine first quarter points and a walk-off triple at the halftime buzzer.
What has made Newbill so good this season has been his offensive proficiency across the board. Go ahead, parse through all the play-types. Outside of posting up, Newbill excels at everything.
4. Jae'Sean Tate (Sydney Kings)
Last week: 6
Are we really ready to conceive of Jae'Sean Tate as the Kings' best player?
We wrote last week that we were surprised that teams were not trying to neuter the Scott Machado/Cam Oliver two-man game with switchable wings.
The exploration of the Tate/Cooks small-ball combo is intriguing in that regard. Tate is a legitimate big who can guard one-through-five in small doses. Who says the Kings don't have defensive versatility?
3. Lamar Patterson (Brisbane Bullets)
Last week: 4
Patterson has been barrelling his way into MVP discourse. But unless something truly extraordinary happens, it is hard to see him barge ahead of the two above him on this list, not after their season-long excellence. That's the big difference.
Patterson is rounding into form at the right time. He had an almost perfect start in the first quarter against United, with nine points (4-of-5 shooting). He was well held in the second, before exploding in the third quarter.
Like a freight train that his play resembles, it is hard to ignore to recent impact that has coalesced with the Bullets finding an identity.
That does not mean we don't consider his first half of the season in which the numbers don't paint the full picture. And no, Patterson has not been at this level (on both sides of the court) all season.
2. Scott Machado (Cairns Taipans)
Last week: 2
With 3:59 left in the first quarter, an A.J. Ogilvy pass to Josh Boone was tipped by Mirko Djeric. Fabijan Krslovic retrieved the loose ball, turned and fed it in the backcourt to a suddenly alert Scott Machado.
Machado had seen D.J. Newbill streak up the court as soon as Krslovic was certain to secure possession. Machado received the ball at the NBL logo under his own rim, and in one swift motion launched an inch perfect pass to Newbill, who caught it in stride and laid it in.
Basketball is a simple, beautiful game with Machado.
1. Bryce Cotton (Perth Wildcats)
Last week: 1
Behind the defensive blanket of McCarron/Shea Ili, United were able to make life tough for Cotton and forced him almost exclusively inside the arc - Ili was especially great in even denying catches. Cotton took only two shots from deep.
Cotton let it fly against the Kings (he was only 2-of-12 from deep) with mixed results, but his attacking intent was evident from the 11 free throw attempts he had for the game.
Stay tuned for next week's edition.