Two games down and the NBL Championship series has become best-of-three. As predicted, it has been a defensive, physical battle, with two of the best defensive teams in the league scrapping out a win on the road to get things started.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley are back for this week's 3x3, where they will assess the state of the series, ask who needs to step up and potentially make an amendment to their pre series prediction!
Which player are you looking at to go to the next level as the series continues?
Kane Pitman: Barry Brown Jr.
If Brown is going to unleash, he will do so under the heavy attention of an elite Sydney defence, but thus far it has been a mixed bag from an efficiency standpoint. In Game 1, he finished just 1-for-8 from long range, while in Game 2 he found life a little more challenging from two-point range where he was 3-for-9. Something to watch is his 3-point shot frequency with 45% of his shot attempts coming from long range, well up on the 35% from the regular season. He's still averaging 20 points per game across the first two so he's been good, but you feel an explosion is coming and in a low scoring series it could be the difference.
Olgun Uluc: Tim Soares.
The Kings' starting big man has been one of their weaker points over the first two games of this series. His hands have to be better around the rim, he needs to go up stronger when the Breakers' bigger bodies bully their way into the paint, and it'd be mightily helpful if that jumper starts falling. Thus far, he's been severely outplayed by Jordan Hunter -- the Australian's mobility and athleticism probably makes him the better fit against these Breakers -- but getting output from Soares is important, especially when's setting the tone at the start of games.
Peter Hooley: With the injury cloud over Cooks and Walton Jr, the Kings need their import Soares to have a bigger impact.
He's matched up against Dererk Pardon who plays a very different style of game than he does. Whether it's stepping out and knocking down some threes or just controlling the glass, the Kings need more from him. Soares has scored just five points in each game so far and hasn't found himself the focus of the Breakers offense when they're trying to attack. If he can hit a couple of shots early, it may bring Pardon away from the paint and open things up for the Kings guards.
What is a stat that matters through two games?
Kane Pitman: Free-throw shooting matters.
Sydney (42-for-62, 67.7%) and New Zealand (31-for-45, 68.8%) would have fans closing their eyes at the line, with a frustrating number of points left at the line in two games that have been decided by no more than three-possession margins. Pressure, fatigue and injuries could all be playing a part, with both teams coming in below their season averages but we are at the point of the season where a few made (or missed) shots from the charity stripe could be the difference between glory and heartbreak.
Olgun Uluc: 31. That's how many times the Kings have turned it over in this series.
They've been a relatively high turnover team during the postseason, but possessions are way more important in a Championship Series, and even more so against the No. 1 defence in the league; you just can't be giving up that many empty trips against these Breakers. Fatigue clearly played a role in Game 2, but some of those turnovers felt like the difference between the Kings stretching their lead out to something more comfortable vs keeping the Breakers within striking distance. A healthy Derrick Walton Jr. will undoubtedly help, but it has to be a focus if the games keep having the potential to remain so low scoring.
Peter Hooley: New Zealand have averaged 25 fouls per game
This isn't as surprising as it seems when you look at how the Breakers played throughout the regular season. New Zealand led the league in fouls per game during NBL23 and it had been evident since preseason that they put a strong emphasis on physicality this season. The issue now is that they've sent the Kings to the line 34 times in one game and 28 in the other. The Breakers are too good of a team defensively to be allowing that many free opportunities to tick the scoreboard over. We expect the postseason to be more physical and maybe the whistle goes away a little bit, but maybe it's time the Breakers have to make a slight adjustment.
What is your updated series prediction?
Kane Pitman: I'm holding firm with Sydney in five.
With the final three games to be played over a five-day period, the prospects of Cooks and Walton Jr. reaching top speed appears slim to none. That absolutely creates some pause, but I still think a hobbled contribution from the two stars can put the Kings over the top from an offensive standpoint. Home court in Game 5 also helps if required, even if both teams have thrived on the road throughout the season. 15,000 fans on your side in a win or go home scenario is a lot nicer than the alternative.
Olgun Uluc: I'm sticking with Kings in 4.
Both teams have gone through their first bout of adversity so now everyone feels settled in. The smarter bet would be one of these teams winning in five games -- and I can absolutely see every home team winning from here on out -- but there was something about that Game 2 win for Sydney. They'll have an extra pep in their step going into the third game of the series, and will probably be as healthy as they're going to be. I can see them winning at home, and then sealing the deal in New Zealand.
Peter Hooley: Still Sydney in 5
The injuries to the Kings' stars are the obvious question mark heading into Game 3. If Cooks and Walton Jr both can't go, then you'd have to lean towards New Zealand, but even then I think the Kings still have a chance. Chase Buford played his entire bench all season long in clutch moments, preparing them for if he had to call on them in big games. He did that in Game 2 and they delivered. The Kings have now had a week heading into Game 3 to perhaps prepare the team for a game without one or two of their stars, which should only add to that confidence. I am expecting some changes from Mody Maor's side, though and hence think this series goes all the way.