Sacks are still king for NFL pass-rushers. There's more to a well-rounded defender than just sack totals, of course, but there's glory in taking down quarterbacks, and those negative-yardage plays are certainly impactful.
Can past performance -- including total sacks, sack rates and age -- help us predict future sack results? That's what I tried to answer this offseason, when I built a sack projection model for the 2021 season. I used several statistical resources for the model, including:
Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN's Mike Clay
Pass rush win rate, which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
Sacks over expectation, which determines the likelihood of an average pass-rusher recording a sack on each play
How often a player's defensive coordinator/defensive head coach blitzed in the past
How often opposing quarterbacks on each player's 2021 schedule take sacks
A player's team's win total, which matters because a winning team forces opponents to take greater risks and pass more
Only defensive linemen and linebackers who rushed the passer at least 25% of the time last season were included (sorry, Jamal Adams) in my projections, and rookies were excluded. Which pass-rushers should we expect to get the most sacks? Which could disappoint and see their sack numbers decline? Plus, which free-agent signing will pay off? Here's who we project to lead the league in sacks, and I'll include the full top 50 at the bottom: