CHICAGO -- It turns out that when you lose the superstar receiver whom you've built your offense around, things don't go so well.
The Minnesota Vikings could hardly move the ball Sunday in their first game since Justin Jefferson went on injured reserve -- despite facing one of the NFL's worst defenses. Their performance, even in a 19-13 victory over the Chicago Bears, laid bare a frightening prognosis for the three (and possibly more) games they'll have to play without Jefferson in the coming weeks.
We should probably start with a reminder of where the Bears stood entering Sunday. Their defense was allowing 31.4 points and 384.2 yards per game, the third- and fourth-highest figures in the league, respectively. And no team had allowed opponents to convert third downs at a greater rate (57.4%).
Consider that context when absorbing the Vikings' total offensive output: one offensive touchdown, two 50-plus-yard field goals and 220 total yards, including only 36 on six possessions after halftime. They converted 15.4% of their third-down attempts (2-of-15) and didn't have a play go for longer than 21 yards. If they struggled against the Bears' defense, what can be expected on Oct. 23 against the San Francisco 49ers, who are allowing an NFL-low 14.5 points per game this season?
"Our guys are excited to get the win," coach Kevin O'Connell said, "but our offense will be hungry to go back to work and make sure we rectify some of those things."
O'Connell went out of his way to praise the play of quarterback Kirk Cousins, whom he said played "really clean, really efficient football, gave some guys some opportunities" and added that "honestly, the way Kirk was throwing it today, I feel like it could have been a much, much bigger day."
Cousins finished 21-of-31 for 181 yards and a touchdown.
To be fair, Cousins did place a perfect pass deep down the left sideline in the second quarter, but rookie receiver Jordan Addison dropped what would have been a 35-yard gain. It was one of three drops for Vikings pass-catchers, by the measure of NFL Next Gen Stats, and it did not take a doctorate in NFL offense to see the impact of Jefferson's absence elsewhere.
The Vikings' first possession neatly encapsulated their predicament. They gained 15 yards on a planned first-play throw to Addison, but their next seven plays netted only 13 yards. Cousins completed a 3-yard pass to receiver K.J. Osborn on third-and-4, necessitating a quarterback sneak to convert on fourth-and-1. And on third-and-7 from the Bears' 35-yard line, Cousins' throw was tipped off the hands of receiver Brandon Powell, who moved into the three-receiver group after Jefferson's injury. Jefferson had been the Vikings' most-targeted receiver on third down (14) through the first five games of the season, and it was clear that the Vikings hoped to limit long third-down attempts. Cousins' average throw came after 2.74 seconds (his quickest this season), largely because his average pass traveled 6.8 yards in the air -- the shortest this season.
As a result, Cousins was pressured on only 6.1% of his throws. Two of those pressures forced him into fumbles, one of which the Bears recovered.
"We could have, should have, need to be much better on offense," Cousins said. "Probably a combination of things there."
The approach might have worked better if the Vikings' running game had been more productive. But it netted only 46 yards on 22 carries, including 44 on 18 carries from starter Alexander Mattison. O'Connell's initial assessment focused on a relative scarcity of holes. Indeed, 36.3% of the Vikings' carries came with at least eight defenders in the box, according to ESPN Stats & Information charting. That's nearly double what opponents deployed in the first five games of the season when forced to account for Jefferson.
"Just didn't see the space in there that we've kind of been able to generate over the last couple weeks," O'Connell said.
Jefferson made the trip to Chicago amid a report from ESPN's Adam Schefter that he "will have to ask himself whether a return this season is worth the risk of long-term injury if the Vikings have fallen out of the playoff race." The Vikings (2-4) didn't lose any ground Sunday in the playoff race, and O'Connell pointed out that they are now 1-0 in the NFC North, despite the sluggish state of the offense.
"We're going to continue to press forward," O'Connell said. "Got a lot of confidence in our pass game. We'll detail it up. I'll give those guys some better calls, and hopefully we'll improve rapidly, because that's my expectation with that group."