Has there been a bigger disappointment than Manly and the Warriors in the opening two rounds?
Yes they're just two of six teams without a win, and they haven't copped a hiding like Sydney Roosters, St George Ilawarra Dragons and Newcastle Knights have done, but the Warriors and the Sea Eagles were both considered preseason to be finals contenders and they've shown nothing in their opening games.
I tipped the Warriors in my preseason predictions to finish second in the minor premiership, with Manly fifth, but they're both a long way from fulfilling those ambitions.
The Warriors have been criticised for two weeks now, and they're now on a 10-match losing spin. They produced a horror show in the first 40 minutes of their first game against Wests Tigers, and no amount of improvement in the second half altered that impression. We needed to see a better effort against Brisbane in Round 2, and they tried hard, but they were the dumbest football side in the world.
I wanted to see Shaun Johnson playing more with ball in hand, taking the ball to the line, being a leader who inspires teammates to follow him; instead we saw him kicking on Tackle 3, while teammates dropped balls and made simple and fundamental defensive errors.
This game against the Storm back at Mt Smart is the making or sacking of coach Andrew McFadden. Play poor in their first game at home, and we'll see fan pressure which turns to media pressure which turns to people seeing they need change.
Warriors players must also be under pressure; there's a number of players McFadden's shown a lot of faith while guys like Konrad Hurrell haven't been picked.
I'd like to think the Warriors have SOMETHING. I tipped them for second on the ladder in my pre-season predictions; they've got Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Issac Luke, they've got all these great players. Now they have to have some brains, show us how good they are as a football side, and compete with some smarts.
For some reason they lift against the Storm and I've tipped a massive upset. The Warriors are at home with players playing for their future; if they don't have a dig this weekend, they will never dig ever.
McFadden isn't alone in being under pressure.
Manly appointed Trent Barrett having got rid of Geoff Toovey, a club legend last year; remember they made the finals under Toovs. And the Sea Eagles have been poor this season. Some people think they were better against Wests Tigers at Leichhardt on Monday, but I don't agree.
They got back in the contest through individual tries -- a freakish effort from Dylan Walker and a score from dummy-half - but their attacking football wasn't great.
Defensively they're really poor, too; I'm not liking how they're tackling, and that's a pretty important part of the game. I don't see them physically being able to tackle big sides, and they're certainly facing a big side this week in the Sharks.
I've also got lingering concerns about Dylan Walker at five-eight; his combination with Daly Cherry-Evans isn't working, and I still don't know how many points they've got in them. It's not working. I know Jamie Lyon doesn't want to play five-eight but for the good of the club he has to be there to provide playmaking composure.
I'm not sure the number of new players is too much of an issue, either. They bought extremely well, and Martin Tapau and Nate Myles are Test players, quality footballers.
I thought preseason they had the balance right with the forwards and dummy half. I didn't see too many deficiencies, and said "they'll be knocking on the door come September".
I think they're really struggling, and I think Cronulla will roll to a pretty easy win.
Click here to see my game-by-game preview.
Thursday, March 17
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.23) v Sydney Roosters ($4.25), 1300SMILES Stadium, Townsville
Cowboys: 1. Lachlan Coote 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Justin O'Neill 4. Kane Linnett 5. Antonio Winterstein 6. Michael Morgan 7. Johnathan Thurston 8. Matthew Scott 9. Jake Granville 10. James Tamou 11. Gavin Cooper 12. Ethan Lowe 13. Jason Taumalolo Interchange: 14. Rory Kostjasyn 15. John Asiata 16. Scott Bolton 17. Ben Hannant
Roosters: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Shaun Kenny-Dowall 3. Blake Ferguson 4. Dale Copley 5. Daniel Tupou 6. Jayden Nikorima 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Kane Evans 9. Jake Friend 10. Dylan Napa 11. Aidan Guerra 12. Mitchell Aubusson 14. Sio Siua Taukeiaho Interchange: 13. Isaac Liu 15. Sam Moa 16. Ian Henderson 17. Mitchell Frei 18. Eloni Vunakece 21. Brendan Elliott
UBET verdict: Sydney seem a big price for a side that showed signs of improvement and only lost by a point in Round 2. Early shoppers are shunning them, however, punting two times more money on the defending premiers.
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Friday, March 18
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($1.55) v Parramatta Eels ($2.50), ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Bulldogs: 1. William Hopoate 2. Curtis Rona 3. Josh Morris 4. Chase Stanley 5. Sam Perrett 6. Josh Reynolds 7. Moses Mbye 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Craig Garvey 10. James Graham 11. Josh Jackson 12. Tony Williams 13. Greg Eastwood Interchange: 14. Sam Kasiano 15. Tim Browne 16. David Klemmer 17. Adam Elliot 19. Lloyd Perrett 20. Shaun Lane
Eels: 1. Michael Gordon 2. Semi Radradra 3. Michael Jennings 4. Brad Takairangi 5. Clinton Gutherson 6. Corey Norman 7. Kieran Foran 8. Junior Paulo 9. Isaac De Gois 10. Tim Mannah 11. Ken Edwards 12. Beau Scott 13. Tepai Moeroa Interchange: 14. Kaysa Pritchard 15. Peni Terepo 16. Danny Wicks 17. David Gower
UBET verdict: This'll be a ding-dong betting battle. The Dogs and Eels have been going dollar for dollar and bet for bet, with the slightest edge given to Parramatta at the +4.5 line. Canterbury have won nine of the past 10 games between these traditional rivals.
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Saturday, March 19
Newcastle Knights ($2.40) v Canberra Raiders ($1.58), Hunter Stadium, Newcastle
Knights: 1. Jaelen Feeney 2. Nathan Ross 3. Dane Gagai 4. Pat Mata'utia 5. Akuila Uate 6. Jarrod Mullen 7. Trent Hodkinson 8. Sam Mataora 9. Tyler Randell 10. Korbin Sims 11. Jacob Saifiti 12. Robbie Rochow 13. Jeremy Smith Interchange: 14. Danny Levi 15. Sione Mata'utia 16. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 17. Daniel Saifiti 18. Pauli Pauli
Raiders: 1. Jack Wighton 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Brenko Lee 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Lachlan Croker 7. Sam Williams 8. Shannon Boyd 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Frank Paul Nuuausala 11. Josh Papalii 12. Elliot Whitehead 13. Shaun Fensom Interchange: 14. Kurt Baptiste 15. Iosia Soliola 16. Paul Vaughan 17. Jeff Lima
UBET verdict: Can the Raiders continue to defy their mounting injury toll? UBET customers have their doubts. The Knights were woeful last week but they have been backed to win this at decent odds. Games between these two are typically high scoring so an Overs play could be the go.
Penrith Panthers ($2.80) v Brisbane Broncos ($1.45), Pepper Stadium, Penrith
Panthers: 1. William Smith 2. Josh Mansour 3. Waqa Blake 4. Peta Hiku 5. Dallin Watene Zelezniak 6. Tyrone Peachey 7. Jamie Soward 8. Sam McKendry 9. Peter Wallace 10. Regan Campbell-Gillard 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Isaah Yeo 13. Trent Merrin Interchange: 14. Sitaleki Akauola 15. Jeremy Latimore 16. Suaia Matagi 17. Elijah Taylor
Broncos: 1. Darius Boyd 2. Greg Eden 3. Jack Reed 4. James Roberts 5. Jordan Kahu 6. Anthony Milford 7. Ben Hunt 8. Josh McGuire 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Adam Blair 11. Alex Glenn 12. Matt Gillett 13. Corey Parker Interchange: 14. Jarrod Wallace 15. Sam Thaiday 16. Jo Ofanhengaue 17. Kodi Nikorima
UBET verdict: Backing the Broncos to win by 13 plus has proven a profitable pastime and punters are going back to well this week at $2.70. Brisbane's also well in commission in the head-to-head stakes, despite the fact they've come up short in their past three away games against Penrith.
Gold Coast Titans (2.20) v Wests Tigers ($1.70), Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Titans: 1. David Mead 2. Anthony Don 3. Josh Hoffman 4. Nathan Davis 5. Nene Macdonald 6. Tyrone Roberts 7. Ashley Taylor 8. David Shillington 9. Nathan Friend 10. Agnatius Paasi 11. Zeb Taia 12. Chris McQueen 13. Greg Bird Interchange: 14. Luke Douglas 15. Ryan James 16. Leivaha Pulu 17. Daniel Mortimer 18. Eddy Pettybourne
Wests Tigers: 1. James Tedesco 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Tim Simona 4. Kevin Naiqama 5. Jordan Rankin 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Luke Brooks 8. Aaron Woods 9. Dene Halatau 10. Tim Grant 11. Kyle Lovett 12. Chris Lawrence 13. Sauaso Sue Interchange: 14. Jack Buchanan 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Ava Seumanufagai 17. Manaia Cherrington 18. Michael Chee-Kam
UBET verdict: The season's surprise packets, Wests Tigers, opened as the favourite for the first time this season, but this could, in fact, be a bad omen. The Tigers have an awful record as a favourite over the past 12 months. History aside, the early money points to them making it three wins in a row.
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Sunday, March 20
Warriors ($1.72) v Melbourne Storm ($2.15), at Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. Tuimoala Lolohea 3. Blake Ayshford 4. Solomone Kata 5. Manu Vatuvei 6. Shaun Johnson 7. Jeff Robson 8. Jacob Lillyman 9. Issac Luke 10. Ben Matulino 11. Bodene Thompson 12. Ryan Hoffman 13. Simon Mannering Interchange: 14. Nathaniel Roache 15. Charlie Gubb 16. James Gavet 17. Albert Vete 18. John Palavi 21. Jonathan Wright 23. Konrad Hurrell
Storm: 1. Cameron Munster 2. Young Tonumaipea 3. Will Chambers 4. Curtis Scott 5. Marika Koroibete 6. Blake Green 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Jordan McLean 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Tohu Harris 13. Dale Finucane Interchange: 14. Kenneath Bromwich 15. Tim Glasby 16. Felise Kaufusi 17. Ben Hampton
UBET verdict: Despite Billy Slater being out injured and the fact the Warriors have won their past two games in Auckland against the Storm, there hasn't been a stampede on the Warriors. Most of the early dough has come for Melbourne at a handy price.
St George Illawarra Dragons ($3.00) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.40), Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Dragons: 1. Josh Dugan 2. Peter Mata'utia 3. Euan Aitken 4. Timoteo Lafai 5. Jason Nightingale 6. Gareth Widdop 7. Benji Marshall 8. Leeson Ah Mau 9. Mitch Rein 10. Russell Packer 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Joel Thompson 13. Michael Cooper Interchange: 14. Ben Creagh 15. Jack de Belin 16. Will Matthews 17. Siliva Havili
Rabbitohs: 1. Greg Inglis 2. Alex Johnston 3. Bryson Goodwin 4. Hymel Hunt 5. Aaron Gray 6. Cody Walker 7. Luke Keary 8. George Burgess 9. Cameron McInnes 10. David Tyrrell 11. Paul Carter 12. Kyle Turner 13. Sam Burgess Interchange: 14. Damien Cook 15. Jason Clark 16. Nathan Brown 17. Kirisome Auva'a 18. Chris Grevsmuhl 19. Michael Oldfield
UBET verdict: Souths seem to have the wood on St George, defeating the Dragons in seven of their past eight encounters - including the last four. At this stage the Bunnies are the best backed side of the round, which is unusual given this game is on Sunday.
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Monday, March 21
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.87) v Cronulla Sharks ($1.95), Brookvale Oval,
Sydney Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Jamie Lyon 4. Steve Matai 5. Brayden Wiliame 6. Dylan Walker 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Josh Starling 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Nate Myles 11. Lewis Brown 12. Martin Taupau 13. Jake Trbojevic Interchange: 14. Matt Parcell 15. Nathan Green 16. Brenton Lawrence 17. Siosaia Vave
Sharks: 1. Ben Barba 2. Sosaia Feki 3. Jack Bird 4. Ricky Leutele 5. Valentine Holmes 6. James Maloney 7. Chad Townsend 8. Andrew Fifita 9. Michael Ennis 10. Sam Tagataese 11. Luke Lewis 12. Wade Graham 13. Jayson Bukuya Interchange: 14. Gerard Beale 15. Matt Prior 16. David Fifita 17. Chris Heighington 18. Joseph Paulo
UBET verdict: Both of these teams need a win, but perhaps the Sharks need it more. Round 1, 2008 was the last time they were successful at Brookvale and they've been backed to break their drought.
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