After failing to capitalise on opportunities in Game One, New South Wales must make everything click to keep Queensland from winning a 10th Origin series in 11 years. The Blues probably had some crucial decisions go against them at ANZ Stadium but if they can't get the rub of the green in Sydney they most certainly won't get it in Brisbane.
The Maroons remind everyone each year what a champion side they are and probably their most valuable attribute is their ability to perfect the one percent plays. Johnathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk are the NRL's best game managers, Cameron Smith is the smartest player in rugby league and 52 thousand Queenslanders will be behind them to swing any 50/50 decisions in their favour.
Form, odds, history and common sense all point toward a Queensland victory. They are ruthless when it really matters and remain unbeaten in game two encounters at Suncorp Stadium since commencing their dominant era in 2006.
The new-look Blues side should be better for the run in Origin I but playing in the cauldron of Suncorp Stadium is a significantly more difficult proposition. How they handle that challenge could be a deciding factor in whether or not the series stays alive for a return clash in Sydney.
Team news:
It's difficult to estimate just how big the loss of Wade Graham is to New South Wales due to the fact he has never played Origin before but it is safe to suggest he would have been a valuable addition had he escaped suspension. The Cronulla forward has been in career-best form and his creativity and toughness would have been handy.
Dragons' back rower Tyson Frizell comes into the Blues' squad in Graham's absence and thoroughly deserves his chance. A strong game or possibly even a New South Wales victory may see Frizell slam the Origin door shut on Graham for 2016.
What more can be written about Queensland that hasn't already been written? The Maroons look fairly stable - the camp try to convince everyone that the loss of Nate Myles to injury is a blow but his club form suggests otherwise and Jacob Lillyman is an experienced and capable replacement.
Just to keep us interested though, the Maroons have again resorted to 'smoke and mirror' tactics. Before game one it was an ankle injury to Cooper Cronk, now it is a stomach bug in the camp. I expect the virus to magically disappear by game day and all of the bed-ridden players to miraculously make starring performances for the Maroons.
New South Wales Blues: 1. Matt Moylan, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Michael Jennings, 14. Dylan Walker, 5. Josh Mansour, 6. James Maloney, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. James Tamou, 11. Greg Bird, 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Paul Gallen (c). Interchange: 15. Tyson Frizell, 16. David Klemmer, 17. Andrew Fifita, 18. Jack Bird.
Queensland Maroons: 1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Greg Inglis, 4. Justin O'Neill, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Matt Scott, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh McGuire, 11. Matt Gillett, 12. Sam Thaiday, 13. Corey Parker. Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan, 15. Jacob Lillyman, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Josh Papalii.
Key head-to-head - New South Wales players v Queensland fans
The atmosphere at Suncorp Stadium will not be a surprise to anyone but how New South Wales handle it could be decisive. Queensland have the most passionate and parochial fans when it comes to Origin and they have the power to inspire the Maroons, demoralise the Blues and sway the officials.
If the Blues, particularly the new boys, can take the crowd out of the game and their own minds then they are a good chance of leveling the series. If they let them get in their heads and affect their game and confidence then they could be set for a repeat of the record defeat they suffered in their last trip to Brisbane.
Key Stats:
Queensland have won 31 and drawn one of their 51 games at Suncorp Stadium (formerly Lang Park).
When game two is played in Queensland, the Maroons have won nine from 11 and boast a perfect 4 from 4 record during their current 'decade of dominance'.
New South Wales last won a game two encounter in Queensland in 2000.
UBET verdict:
$1.52 QLD, $2.60 NSW
With QLD players apparently over the bug that went through camp at the weekend, the big money is now arriving for the Maroons. A lot of the money move coincided with Josh Morris being ruled out of the Blues side, and in that time QLD have been $1.60 into the current price. It appears as though most expect QLD to win, and win easily, as the 13+ has been the best backed option in margin betting. It is a similar case with Player of the Match and First try scorer markets where Queenslanders dominate markets. JT is easily the most popular to be best afield at $5.00, while Corey Oates is the standout to be the first try scorer at $7.50.
Weather:
Brisbane is expecting a temperature of 17 degrees at kick-off with only a 10 percent chance of rain.
Prediction:
I believe New South Wales look stronger on paper after being forced into a reshuffle due to players withdrawing with suspension and injury. Wade Graham and Josh Morris would improve any side but the overall make-up of the Blues side looks strong and well rounded.
Dylan Walker will be more confident and more dangerous in his rightful centre position, Jack Bird is made for Origin and I see him as a perfect utility that can cover up to eight positions across the backs and forwards while debutant Tyson Frizell will provide great impact in all departments off the bench.
News of Corey Parker's impending retirement at the end of 2016 is bad timing for New South Wales - the veteran Brisbane forward is one of the most popular players in the Queensland squad and confirmation that this will be his final Origin campaign is sure to provide even more motivation for the Maroons.
We can expect the same old game plan from Queensland. While that might sound boring, monotonous and predictable - the truth is the Maroons are anything but. They will be enterprising, entertaining and enthusiastic; they will be inspired in defence, imaginative in attack and they will be extremely hard to stop from registering another series victory.
But knowing Queensland's game plan is only half the challenge facing New South Wales - stopping them carrying it out is the real problem. By their own admission, the Blues have to find more points - if they can do that then they are half way to a victory - I just cannot see it happening.
Tip: Queensland by 10