Friday, September 16
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.47) v Brisbane Broncos ($2.70), 1300SMILES Stadium at 7:55pm
Team news:
The Cowboys have a few bumps and bruises -- prop Matt Scott continues to nurse a back injury while centre Kane Linnett has failed to overcome a torn calf muscle and will be replaced by Javid Bowen.
Jason Taumololo's egg-throwing incident was a slight distraction for the Cowboys however they are certain to be focused by kick-off on Friday night.
The Broncos will welcome back Tom Opacic with the centre overcoming a shoulder problem that kept him out of the win against the Titans while Jonus Pearson is on an extended bench to cover James Roberts who heads to the judiciary to fight a weeks ban after a contrary conduct charge.
Key head-to-head: Michael Morgan vs Anthony Milford
This pair are likely to have their hands on the ball more than most for their respective sides so this contest may boil down to who can do the most with it.
Michael Morgan is often overshadowed by halves partner Johnathan Thurston in discussions but his rapid improvement has seen him become almost as vital to the Cowboys campaign.
Anthony Milford started the season in blistering form and is steadily regaining that confidence again and it is no coincidence that the Broncos results have also improved a result.
They have differing styles but are equally as important to their respective teams and will have a major impact on the outcome of this match, and ultimately their team's season.
Cowboys: 1. Lachlan Coote, 2. Kyle Feldt, 3. Justin O'Neill, 4. Javid Bowen, 5. Antonio Winterstein, 6. Michael Morgan, 7. Johnathan Thurston, 8. Matthew Scott, 9. Jake Granville, 10. James Tamou, 11. Gavin Cooper, 12. Ethan Lowe, 13. Jason Taumalolo. Interchange: 14. Rory Kostjasyn, 15. Coen Hess, 16. Scott Bolton, 17. Ben Hannant
Broncos: 1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Tom Opacic, 4. James Roberts, 5. Jordan Kahu, 6. Anthony Milford, 7. Ben Hunt, 8. Josh McGuire, 9. Andrew McCullough, 10. Adam Blair, 11. Sam Thaiday, 12. Matt Gillett, 13. Corey Parker. Interchange: 14. Jarrod Wallace, 15. Tevita Pangai Junior, 16. Jai Arrow, 17. Alex Glenn, 18. Jonus Pearson
Key Stats:
The Cowboys and Broncos have met twice this season with the home team winning on each occasion
Just one point has separated the sides in their previous three meetings
Brisbane have lost their last four games at 1300SMILES Stadium and won just once there since 2011
UBET verdict:
$1.47 Cowboys, $2.70 Broncos
Cash is steaming in for the Cowboys in early trade, both outright and at the line. 1300 SMILES Stadium has been a fortress for them this year, so the intense interest is understandable. Also, Brisbane hasn't won in Townsville since 2013. Recent history suggests a tight result however, with a field goal separating them in each of their last three encounters.
Weather: A 50 percent chance of showers throughout the day clearing in the evening with an expected temperature of 24 degrees at kick-off.
Prediction:
It's hard to go past the Cowboys. They were below par against the Storm but were still competitive while I believe the Broncos benefited greatly from a number of favourable calls against the Titans last week.
These two teams have become accustomed to delivering classic encounters but I get the feeling the Cowboys will have too much ammunition for their Queensland cousins on this occasion.
North Queensland have lost just once at 1300SMILES Stadium all season and with a ferocious home crowd behind them I expect the Cowboys to gallop away with a relatively comfortable victory.
Tip: Cowboys by 8
Enter your ESPNfootytips NRL selections
Saturday, September 17
Canberra Raiders ($1.82) v Penrith Panthers ($2.00), GIO Stadium at 7:45pm
Team news:
It's often said that a lot can change in a week in the NRL and Canberra are finding out the hard way. After storming into the NRL finals off the back of 10 straight wins, the Raiders now face a sudden death contest against one of the competition's form teams and have a number of injury concerns.
Canberra have named Josh Hodgson despite the hooker being a long-shot to play after suffering an ankle injury in the loss to the Sharks -- Kurt Baptiste will likely move from the bench to starting hooker in his absence with Adam Clydsdale expected to come into the 17.
Ricky Stuart has also included Blake Austin and the Raiders five-eighth is confident of playing despite missing three weeks with a broken hand.
In contrast, the Panthers are purring on and off the field - they have a clean bill of health on the injury front and have named an unchanged side to take on the Raiders however Moses Leota has been named as 18th man.
Key head-to-head: Aidan Sezer vs Nathan Cleary
At just 25-years-old, Aidan Sezer is hardly a veteran but up against 18-year-old Nathan Cleary he may feel like one.
Sezer has been a fine addition to Canberra this year and can take a lot of credit for their success - his kicking game, direction and calmness on the ball have been a crucial ingredient in the Raiders rise and with Hodgson out and doubts over Austin, they'll need him to stand up more than ever.
The same could be said for Penrith and Nathan Cleary - the Panthers were labouring midway through the season with six wins from 11 matches but since Cleary's NRL debut in round 13 they have gone on to win 10 of 14.
The Panthers' are almost flippant in the way they rack up points but their exuberance of youth is matched by a ruthless attitude in defence and Cleary is a key factor behind everything they do.
Raiders: 1. Jack Wighton, 2. Edrick Lee, 3. Jarrod Croker, 4. Joseph Leilua, 5. Jordan Rapana, 6. Blake Austin, 7. Aidan Sezer, 8. Junior Paulo, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. Shannon Boyd, 11. Josh Papalii, 12. Elliott Whitehead, 13. Iosia Soliola. Interchange: 14. Kurt Baptiste, 15. Luke Bateman, 16. Clay Priest, 17. Joseph Tapine
Panthers: 1. Matt Moylan, 2. Josh Mansour, 3. Waqa Blake, 4. Tyrone Peachey, 5. Dallin Watene Zelezniak, 6. Bryce Cartwright, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Leilani Latu, 9. Peter Wallace, 10. Suaia Matagi, 11. Isaah Yeo, 12. James Fisher-Harris, 13. Trent Merrin. Interchange: 14. Sitaleki Akauola, 15. Jeremy Latimore, 16. Chris Grevsmuhl, 17. Zak Hardaker, 20. Moses Leota
Key Stats:
The Raiders have won three of their previous four meetings with the Panthers
The Panthers have won just three of their past 11 at GIO Stadium dating back to 2005
The Raiders and Panthers have one win a piece this season
UBET verdict:
$1.82 Raiders, $2.00 Panthers
Early shoppers have come for outsiders Penrith, which suggests the odds will tighten up at some stage. Canberra has won nine of their past 10 games at home, but the injury to Josh Hodgson is a big blow and punters are wary.
Weather: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers, light winds and expected temperature of 11 degrees at kick-off.
Prediction:
My only reservation with Penrith leading into the NRL finals was how their young players would handle the pressure - they delivered an emphatic answer to that question against Canterbury.
The Panthers are entering a golden era and play a brand of football that oozes confidence - in contrast, the Raiders may have lost some of their momentum in last Saturday night's loss to the Sharks.
Canberra have also been struck with injuries to key players at the wrong time of the year - Josh Hodgson is a huge loss and rushing Blake Austin back if he isn't fully fit will be a risk.
I won't write the Raiders off completely but I am leaning towards the Panthers.
Tip: Panthers by 10