There are many concerning parallels between last week's AFL Grand Final and what lies ahead for the Canberra Raiders this weekend. A talented team, a crafty coach in his sixth year at the club, a breakthrough journey to the big dance and waiting at the other end of the field, a team that has set the benchmark in recent years.
Last week the GWS Giants, playing in their first ever AFL Grand Final, were lapped by an impressive Richmond Tigers team. Overawed by the occasion or simply outclassed, the result wasn't pretty. Now, there is a very real danger that the same fate awaits Ricky Stuart and his Raiders when they take on the powerhouse Roosters.`
The GWS Giants upset one of the hot favourites in Collingwood to make it into the grand final. Three weeks ago the Raiders upset the runaway minor premiers Melbourne Storm to advance to a preliminary final. Both teams embraced their underdog status to cap off strong seasons with a shot at the ultimate prize.
It's a daunting task, playing in a grand final. Playing in your club's first ever or in its first in 20 years gives you no real experience as an organization in facing the enormity of it all. It is made that much more difficult when your opponent has won one recently and is one of the better performed teams in recent seasons.
The Roosters have been near the top of the tree for the entire decade, collecting minor premierships in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2018, the premiership in 2013 and 2018 as well as losing the 2010 Grand Final. The Tigers started the decade slowly, but finished minor premiers in 2018 and premiers in 2017 and 2019.
Both teams bristle with salary-cap-stretching talent. In Dustin Martin the Tigers have one of AFL's most dangerous attacking weapons. In James Tedesco the Roosters have one of the rugby league world's most dangerous attacking weapons. With barely a weakness across the park, both teams strengthened their line-ups this year by signing young guns, the Tigers picked up Tom Lynch, while the Roosters picked up Angus Crichton. Both clubs are captained by seasoned professionals, Trent Cotchin and Boyd Cordner, well respected for their playing abilities and leadership qualities.
Standing in the Roosters way is the NRL's back-to-back premiership curse. No team since the 1992 Broncos has won back-to-back premierships, but most teams fail to make the grand final two years running. Only the Roosters in 2003 and the Storm last year have even had the opportunity to win back-to-back premierships. The Storm could have done it in 2008, but due to systemic salary cap cheating it wouldn't have counted anyway. Interestingly in 2003 the Roosters were stopped by a Panthers team who broke a 13-year premiership drought in doing so.
If the Raiders are to take any positives from looking at both codes as they head into Sunday, it is in the spate of recent drought-breaking victories. Richmond themselves won their first for 37 years in 2017. The year previous, the Western Bulldogs ended a 62-year premiership drought. In the NRL South Sydney broke their own 43-year premiership drought in 2014, while Cronulla Sharks won their first ever title in 2016 after being in the competition for 49 years. It has only been 20 years since the Raiders won a title, but it's a drought that belies the amount of talent they have had during that time.
The Raiders have a chance to make their own history on Sunday. Coach Ricky Stuart has been there before as a player and a coach, and he is their best chance of handling the build up and the day itself. They will have to be at their very best to defeat the Roosters. If they show any signs of being overawed or off their game in any way, particularly in defence, they could be in for a long and painful experience not unlike the one the Giants suffered last week.