Stronger as four? Australian rugby is about to find out

For the best part of a decade, it has felt like Australian rugby has been fighting a civil war.

In a code for which unrest has been a constant bedfellow, the in-fighting has taken on several different trajectories and involved multiple senior administrators and stakeholders, both on and off the field.

But away from the ugly Raelene Castle saga, the Eddie Jones debacle, and the Hamish McLennan malaise, few situations have stirred up as much emotion as the question of how many Super Rugby teams Australia should field.

If we're being honest, it's a question that has divided the game right back to the Western Force's introduction in 2006, one that not only split Australian rugby politically but also geographically.

Four became five when Melbourne Rebels eventually secured their place in 2011. But five became four when the Force were cut from Super Rugby, alongside the South Africa's Kings and Cheetahs in 2018.

Four then became five once more when Rugby Australia was forced to crawl cap in hand back to the Force at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, ensuring the governing body had a competition then-broadcasters Fox Sports would pay for.

It's been a ride.

For a short period between 2020 and 2022, Australian rugby formed a united front, reflected by the angry reaction to New Zealand Rugby's original request for "two or three Australian teams" in a new Super competition that had already cast aside South Africa. Incensed, former RA chairman McLennan threatened Australia was prepared to go it alone once again. He remained an antagonistic figure for the Kiwis right up until his exit at the end of 2023.

And so Super Rugby Pacific has been run and won the past three years as a 12-team competition. Late in 2023 however, it emerged that Melbourne Rebels were in severe financial difficulty, before it was later revealed the franchise had debts in excess of $22m.

In May last year, RA made the difficult decision not to reissue the franchise's license to a private consortium that had planned to take the team to Melbourne's growing western corridor. With that, the Rebels were done.

And just as it was with Western Force great Matt Hodgson at the tail-end of the 2017 Super Rugby season, the images of tearful Rebels captain Rob Leota, and many of his teammates, following the franchise's final game - a first ever playoffs match to boot - struck a devastating chord with rugby fans across the Australian spectrum.

But amid heartache and tears, the terse cross-Tasman exchanges, and finally the legal mediation, there had been a growing consensus that the country did simply not have the talent to field five professional teams, a challenge that has only become significantly tougher given the growth in the global player market.

Ahead of an 11-team Super Rugby Pacific competition, which kicks off on Feb. 14, there is optimism that Australia can not only compete with New Zealand's franchises on a more consistent basis, but also challenge for the title.

With many Rebels players having found homes elsewhere around Australia, and some high-profile repatriations to Australia from overseas, the rosters of the four remaining franchises look and feel that little bit stronger.

"I think so [four is the right amount of teams]. I just think you have to look at the depth in the squads across the board. The Force are talking about their depth being as good as it has [ever] been; the Reds are the same; the Brums just keep chipping along," Dan McKellar, who will embark on his first season as Waratahs coach, said.

"I think it's a good thing, I think there has got to be competition for spots. And I know when I was a player there were three teams, to get a contract was bloody tough. And it should be.

"It should be tough, they shouldn't be just gifted out and I think all four Australian teams will benefit off the back of that."

A cursory look at some of the names that were running around during McKellar's playing days rams home just how hard it was to secure a professional club deal in Australia.

In what was a golden generation for Australian rugby, the likes of [Brumbies] Gregan, Larkham, Paul, Finegan, Smith, Roff; [Reds] Eales, Cockbain, Kefu, Horan, Little, Connors; [Waratahs] Waugh, Lyons, Tuqiri, Whittaker, Burke and Rogers; were scattered across the three franchises.

And Australia almost had a title contender, or two, every year.

Over the Super 12 years from 1996 to 2005, Australia supplied two champions [Brumbies, '01, '04], four further finalists [Brumbies '97, '00, '02; Waratahs '05] and five semifinalists [Reds '96, '98, '01; Brumbies '03; Waratahs '02].

The only season in which Australia did not supply at least a semifinalist was 1999, ironically the same year the Wallabies last lifted the Webb Ellis Cup.

But throughout the five years of Super 14, Australia did not supply a champion, and only the Waratahs made a final [08] and semifinal [10]. The Force's introduction gutted the Reds, and also picked off key Waratahs players, while the Brumbies drifted following the exits of many of their frontline stars.

Ironically, the shift to five Australian teams with the introduction of the Melbourne Rebels -- and importantly, the switch to conference-based play -- ultimately led to both the Reds and Waratahs lifting the Super Rugby trophy for the first time.

While the Reds and Waratahs both enjoyed near-generational teams, inspired by coaches Ewen McKenzie and Michael Cheika respectively, they also had the benefit of playing in the weakest of the three conferences, which vitally saw them earn top seeding for the playoffs. And each did just enough to hold off the Crusaders in memorable deciders.

But hidden away in the glory of two Super titles in the space of four years, and a further losing finalist in the shape of the Brumbies in 2013, was the fact that at the other end of the ladder, Australia was consistently supplying two of the bottom four positions on the table

Then came rock bottom.

Between 2016 and 2018, Australia's five franchises lost a collective 40 straight games against New Zealand opposition. Forty straight games. If ever there was evidence that Australia's talent was spread too thinly, that was it.

And while the pursuit of a national footprint was a noble exercise, Australia, just like New Zealand and South Africa, were fighting the growing foreign threat more than ever.

When the Force was first added, and then even the Rebels, overseas opportunities were seen as a retirement booster, of sorts, giving players nearing, or on the other side, of 30, the chance to wind down their careers with a financial bonus and an experience to last a lifetime.

But with the growth of the global player market, particularly the acceleration and investment into the French and Japanese leagues, clubs began to target players at an increasingly younger age, before later, changes to the Test eligibility laws only further raised the attractiveness of younger recruits.

And as much as Rugby Australia may have dreamed for bottomless coffers, the financial clout to keep every last Wallabies hopeful on home soil, the reality was they have for so long been at risk of the exact opposite -- near financial ruin.

The governing body could not compete with mega-rich deals on offer in Europe or Japan, and in other cases there was the realisation for some players that they were down the Wallabies pecking order and would be better off cashing in while they could.

Think about players like Liam Gill, who left Australia at 24; Samu Kerevi at 26; Will Skelton at 25; Sean McMahon at 23; and more recently, Isaac Lucas at 20, Josh Kemeny at 25. The list goes on.