Each week, ESPN.com.au AFL draft expert Chris Doerre casts his eye over the country's best junior footballers to give readers an early insight into the next generation of AFL stars.
As well as attending live games, Doerre pores through match vision, analyses the stats and talks to industry sources to ensure he can offer the most insightful draft analysis.
Aside from the weekly wraps, Doerre will also unveil his power rankings at the end of each month and as we get closer to November's national draft, Doerre will also predict who goes where with his annual phantom draft.
There is an overwhelming majority within the industry who believe Sam Walsh is the best player in the draft and the player Carlton should select with pick No. 1. However, that will be a mistake, with three other prospects likely to become more dominant players.
That's not to say Walsh will be a bust - while not as quick or damaging by foot, Walsh has drawn comparisons to star GWS midfielder Josh Kelly. Walsh's endurance, capacity to win the ball inside and accumulate outside in high volumes, and a similarly light body at the same stage, means it's an easy comparison to make.
Walsh is a safe bet as an early draft pick and has the capacity to play 250 games. But with Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine and Bailey Smith all in this draft, the question is not whether Walsh will be a bust, but whether three other prospects will be better. I believe they will. Here's why.
Why shouldn't Walsh be the first pick in this year's draft?
Two words: Jack Lukosius.
Lukosius is a Swiss Army knife of winning. In my 10 years watching junior football, Lukosius is the clear, outright standout prospect. The 194cm, versatile tall uses his speed to create separation on the lead and the endurance to provide multiple leads or push up from the forward 50m down the wings and half-back flanks. When followed up the field, he beats his opponent back into the forward 50m, often taking uncontested marks. When given the chance to run unchecked up the field, Lukosius takes uncontested marks from which he swiftly identifies and hits meaningful targets by foot, often leading to goals.
Such an example of Lukosius' special kicking came late in the third quarter of South Australia's Under-18 Championships victory against Western Australia. Lukosius, who reads the drop of the ball as well as any in the draft, took an intercept mark from a kickout. Kicking inside 50m, he identified Oscar Chapman seemingly surrounded by Western Australian defenders, picking him out like a needle in a haystack.
Lukosius is a master not only of kicking the ball where he wants teammates to lead to but seeing the game unfold before it happens. This allows him to find targets others would dismiss as not being open, and he has the skill to then drill centimetre-perfect passes to teammates, who by the time the ball arrives, are open. Against Western Australia, Lukosius earned best-on-ground honours with 17 disposals, 14 marks (three contested), four goals and three score assists in a complete display.
While Lukosius on most teams would settle as a key position player, Carlton are in a unique situation in boasting glut of key position players. But he could slot in on a wing or forward flank - the South Australian would in either position boost the club's mix of key forwards with his running and elite kicking.
A second rare talent
No one influences the outcome of games quite like Izak Rankine. In the 2017 Grand Final curtain-raiser, Rankine was so dominant that he was asked to switch teams after leading his side to a 45-point halftime lead, with two goals to his name. The game took on a different complexion in the second half with the margin reducing to 39 points as Rankine played a major part, kicking a further two goals.
He is a genuine big game player. In South Australia's all-important deciding match against Victoria Metro for the Under-18 Championships title, Rankine was the hero, kicking three goals and two behinds to lead SA to a four-goal-to-none opening quarter. The start left Metro demoralised, with Rankine making such a bold statement that Metro knew at quarter time they would not win.
There is no better loose-ball winner, mover with ball in hand -- running around opponents like traffic cones -- aerial marking threat, kick on the move at speed or finisher around goal than Rankine. While he possesses these points of difference, what separates Rankine from other flashy types with similar gifts who have come through the draft previously is his contested-ball winning and production. Rankine averaged nine contested possessions and a competition-high three goals per game during the Under-18 Championships.
Who is the best midfielder in the draft?
The best midfielder in the draft is Bailey Smith.
Smith is the most prolific contested-ball and clearance winner, the most reliable kicking midfielder and among the most explosive. These claims are supported by TAC Cup highs of 19.5 contested possessions and 11.5 clearances from his two games. During the Under-18 Championships, Walsh's 13.25 contested possessions beat out Smith's 12, though Smith managed 0.5 more clearances.
In a comparison to Walsh, Smith is a better kick and boasts greater acceleration. Smith's kicking reliability through both the TAC Cup and Under-18 Championships was higher, and he achieved a perfect 100 percent kicking efficiency in two of his Under-18 Championships matches.
While Smith and Walsh are two of the premier endurance runners from the junior ranks, Smith's burst separates him from Walsh, who has yet to show he can accelerate away from contested situations or create separation around the ground on the move.
Making Smith's performances more impressive is the way he has performed through Achilles bursitis since the beginning of the season.