Season 2019 was another horror year for Gold Coast, who finished bottom of the ladder. ESPN's draft expert Chris Doerre has looked at how the club with so much promising got it all so wrong.
Drafting the best of the best
David Swallow (pick No. 1, 2010), Jaeger O'Meara (mini-draft pick No. 1, 2011) and Jack Martin (mini-draft pick No. 1, 2012) were the three players Gold Coast were hoping to build their dynasty around.
Each had the benefit of a full year of development with the Suns before playing their first AFL games and there was a sense among recruiters that all three possessed the scope to become top five players in the competition. After all, it had been over a decade since one club landed three genuine stars in the space of three years.
However, today it would be difficult to make the case that any of them rank inside the top 50 players in the league.
The promising collection of draftees
These are the players Gold Coast have selected inside the top 20 since the club's inception:
2010: David Swallow (1), Harley Bennell (2), Sam Day (3), Josh Caddy (7), Dion Prestia (9), Daniel Gorringe (10), Tom Lynch (11), Sebastian Tape (13)
2012: Jesse Lonergan (13)
2013: Kade Kolodjashnij (5), Jack Leslie (20)
2014: Peter Wright (8), Jarrod Garlett (15)
2015: Callum Ah Chee (8), Brayden Fiorini (20)
2016: Ben Ainsworth (4), Jack Scrimshaw (7), Will Brodie (9), Jack Bowes (10)
2017: Wil Powell (19)
2018: Jack Lukosius (2), Izak Rankine (3), Ben King (6)
As part of Gold Coast's concessions, they received 12 underage prospects. Of those, Josh Toy, Maverick Weller, Luke Russell, Trent McKenzie, Brandon Matera, Matt Shaw and Tom Nicholls were the most highly touted and in any other year would likely have featured inside the first round of the draft.
Gold Coast's zone selections of Zac Smith, Rory Thompson, Charlie Dixon, Tom Hickey (from Queensland) and Steven May (from the Northern Territory) were also highly touted and could have easily been taken in the first round.
On top of this, Gold Coast traded for the first overall picks in the 2011 and 2012 mini-drafts, selecting O'Meara and Martin.
During this time, only Greater Western Sydney have drafted more players in the first round.
Have Gold Coast drafted poorly?
An easy conclusion would be to say yes they have drafted poorly. Like any club, Gold Coast have had their share of misses, but for the most part the players selected have played to expectation and looked developable in their formative years.
What happened?
It's been an all too familiar theme over the years for Gold Coast who have never finished higher than 12th on the ladder. Unfortunately, their most talented prospects have either failed to develop or failed to develop to expectation.
Another issue has been injuries. Gold Coast has had one of the AFL's longest injury lists in the last five years and this lack of player availability has further impacted on player development.
The consequence of this lack of development and continued poor results has led to their best players leaving to either chase success at other clubs or return to their home states.
Who has developed to or exceeded expectation?
Of the many high-end prospects Gold Coast have drafted, Tom Lynch (Richmond), Steven May (Melbourne), Dion Prestia (Richmond) and Charlie Dixon (Port Adelaide) have either met or exceeded expectations.
Unfortunately for Gold Coast, all four have moved onto new clubs after seeking trades.
How can Gold Coast turn things around?
What is often overlooked is the value of veteran leadership. Since Gold Coast's inception, this has been a missing ingredient.
Luke Hodge is the modern example of what a great leader can do for a club. Brisbane finished in last position in 2017 but jumped to 15th and were far more competitive in Hodge's first season at the club. Their performance over the second half of the season was particularly promising, securing four of their five wins after the bye.
Brisbane made the leap up to second position at the end of this year's home and away season to mark the club's first finals finish since 2009.
While Hodge cannot be solely credited for Brisbane's rise, his impact has been profound in helping his teammates develop as footballers, leaders and in helping to establish a winning culture.
The Suns cannot expect to replicate the speed of success the Lions have enjoyed with the pairing of coach Chris Fagan and Hodge -- particularly given the pair had already established a working relationship -- but it is an idea Gold Coast and other clubs stuck in the rebuilding cycle would be wise to consider.
Gold Coast missed an opportunity following the 2016 season when North Melbourne called time on Brent Harvey's 432 game career. Harvey, renowned for his professionalism, work ethic and durability would have been a straightforward fit at the Suns. He still had his speed, something Gold Coast lack, and was still productive, as the competition's only player to manage at least 496 disposals and 36 goals in 2016.
The value of veteran leadership in world sports
In the NBA and in other world sports, it's commonplace for contending teams to load up predominantly on veteran talent to surround their star players as franchises recognise their capabilities to play supporting roles.
On developing teams, veterans are similarly valued, predominantly for the value they can provide as leaders and in helping to assist with the growth of their developing talent.
Vince Carter, who enters his 22nd NBA season, will be turning 43 in January. Last season with Atlanta, Carter was instrumental in the development of their young core group with the improvement of rookie point guard Trae Young the most notable.
Young transformed from someone who struggled to make a shot and experienced significant difficulty with the pace of the game during the first half of the season to runner-up in the Rookie of the Year award. Young's second half of season play was so impressive that some experts and players felt that Young deserved to win the award.
There remains a lack of industry-wide understanding among AFL clubs as to how valuable veteran talent is in establishing a successful culture and in developing talent. Struggling clubs seeking a competitive advantage should closely study the list management ideas implemented by general managers in world sports and pay particularly close attention to their decision making regarding veterans.
A bright future?
With the additions of Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine and Ben King last year, Gold Coast landed three potential A-graders. If the Suns are fortunate enough to be awarded a priority pick, giving them the top two picks in the draft, Carey Grammar schoolmates Matthew Rowell and Noah Anderson would significantly add to this young core and create what has the scope to become one of the competition's premier big fives.
While Shaun Burgoyne has signed on for one more year with Hawthorn, it is encouraging that Gold Coast targeted him. As a four-time premiership player, Burgoyne would have been ideal as a veteran leader who can assist with developing the club's youth and advancing the club's culture.
With Burgoyne making his decision, if Gold Coast wish to get out of their rebuilding loop, develop talent and create a culture where players want to remain long-term, it will be essential for Gold Coast to find their Luke Hodge equivalent. Until this player or a combination of players can be found to fill this void, Gold Coast appear doomed to struggle developing and retaining talent.