Our AFL experts tackle some of the burning questions ahead of Round 18, including what the Blues need to do to beat the high-flying Cats, the biggest issue with the Bulldogs and how ducking can be stamped out of the game (if at all).
How does Carlton beat Geelong on Saturday night?
Rohan Connolly: Won't be easy as the Cats seem to have more strings to their bow now, particularly midfield, where the likes of Tom Atkins and Max Holmes are fulfilling bigger roles and the load being shared more. But the Blues have their own strong suit in clearance-winning ability, so first hands on ball would be a key, then quick ball movement towards twin towers Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay. The Cats' defence is far from shabby, obviously, but that pair with a bit of space present a huge challenge for even the most capable key defenders.
Jake Michaels: It all starts in the midfield, particularly at the centre bounces. The Cats crushed Melbourne in that department last round, winning the clearance count 54-36 and centre clearances 16-8. Giving such a potent forward line, which features the likes of Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron, Gary Rohan, Tyson Stengle, and at times Patrick Dangerfield, silver service is a recipe for disaster. The good news for Carlton is that they have a midfield group which can trouble Geelong. If the likes of Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, George Hewett, Adam Cerra and Matt Kennedy stand up, the Blues are a big chance of getting the win and keeping their top four hopes alive.
Matt Walsh: I think the others have nailed it, in that Carlton's biggest strength is the clearance game. Having said that, in the Blues' recent losses to Richmond and St Kilda, they've lost the clearance count, so clearly that'll be something Geelong is aware of. If the mids can bring the A-game, I feel Carlton have a shot at winning this one.
Jarryd Barca: Efficiency. Carlton's one-wood is their stoppage and clearance game -- they're the number one disposal team in the league and rank top three for all of contested possessions, centre clearances and contested marks -- so getting on top of the Cats at the source and giving Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow quick supply, thus putting Geelong's defence under pressure without intercept king Tom Stewart, will be paramount. But as much as the Blues can expose the Cats at one end, Chris Scott will be looking to do the same at the other with the number one mark inside 50 team in the AFL at his disposal. It means Carlton's book-ends will have their work cut out all night, but if they capitalise on the opportunities they will no doubt get, then look out, top four.
What's the biggest issue with the Western Bulldogs?
RC: Defence. The proof is on the scoreboard, where the Dogs have now conceded more than 100 points three times in the past four games after doing so just once in the first 12 games. That's obviously down to more than the back six, because the Swans, like other opponents, seemed to find it pretty easy to transition the ball from defence to attack. And that most likely comes down to work ethic. A few senior Bulldogs (like the skipper Marcus Bontempelli) are just going at the moment, too. Is the appetite still there for this group? You'd question it.
JM: The fact the Bulldogs are conceding 15 more points per game than they were in 2021 points to the defence. Teams are picking them apart with ball transition and that's putting a massive amount of strain on what's a pretty underwhelming backline. Until Luke Beveridge's side can tighten up in this area, they aren't a finals bound team, let alone challenging for a flag.
MW: Defensively they're struggling, but where is the help from the midfield? There's been a lack of two-way running in recent weeks, and while predominately midfield players like Josh Dunkley and Marcus Bontempelli are kicking more goals (but playing more forward line minutes), when the defence is under siege (as it consistently seems to be), getting some bodies behind the ball would help. Help them out, Bevo.
JB: Quite clearly it's their defence, from both a personnel and system point of view. The Dogs had no answers when under siege in the first quarter against the Swans and it seems to be an issue that stems from their zone set up that allows teams to get sporadic run-ons and means there's a lack of one-on-one focus, which we've seen happen this season. That system relies on midfield dominance, so when sides like Sydney are switched on and dominate the possession count and take 37 more marks across four quarters, it spells catastrophe. Does Aaron Naughton go back if Josh Bruce returns? Something needs to change.
How does the AFL stop players from ducking?
RC: I'm not convinced the Jack Ginnivans of this world lead to a plague of head-ducking, but I do understand the potential or danger and the need to remove even the possibility of it becoming more widespread. So I guess that means strong action, and the strongest would probably be to start awarding free kicks against players who duck, regardless of how high they're subsequently taken, prior opportunity or not. That, surely, nips it in the bud.
JM: I'm really not sure there's anything that can be done. Paying free kicks against certainly isn't the solution, because there are times when a player does need to brace or duck out of high contact, and such a rule could cause serious injury as it would encourage and reward players for taking some unnecessary hits. How about players just become more adept at tackling? We know many players are looking for free kicks by lowering their body, so take that into consideration when tackling and you shouldn't have an issue. Now that I think about it, maybe the lowering of the body could be considered the prior opportunity.
MW: Tough question, because players who are legitimately taken high while low to the ground will be worse off if 'frees against' are brought in, or the play is left to go. What I am concerned about is the potential for injury from this recent trend of arm throwing and leading with the neck. I don't like it, but I don't know really how you stop it.
JB: Let's get one thing straight: Whether you like it or not, there IS a difference between 'ducking', and raising an arm to either shrug a tackle or draw in high contact, which is what we're seeing more of today. 'Ducking' is prior opportunity and should continue to be seen as such, but the other one -- the 'arm lift' -- is a genuine technique that challenges a tackler to not be clumsy. A player's first instinct when they gain possession should be to dispose the footy, not look for a free, and for that I will always hate the look of it, but there is nothing we can do to legislate against it. Head high contact is head high contact, no matter how it happens. The onus is on the tackler.
How many changes do you expect to see to the top eight?
RC: None. I think Richmond will fill eighth spot comfortably with a decent run home (just one road trip). I've actually got the Tigers winning five of their last six, while none of the four teams immediately below them I have winning any more than three. I think the Swans will win at least four, so they're obviously safe, also.
JM: Sure, we'll still see some shuffling with the order, but the top eight we have right now is what we'll have at the conclusion of Round 23. You want a top eight in order? Here goes: Cats, Demons, Dockers, Lions, Swans, Blues, Magpies and Tigers. The Bulldogs and Saints have tough draws, Port Adelaide was always going to struggle to play in September after the disastrous 0-5 start and the Suns ... well ... I think they might finish ninth!
MW: In a pretty crazy (and competitive season) could there be one more big twist? Collingwood's run has been great, but their percentage still has me thinking a couple of poor weeks could cost them. Do they fall out? Maybe not, but they could drop to eighth. I can't see any side from the Bulldogs in 10th or below making a run, so it's the Saints for the Tigers or nothing for me.
JB: I think the current top eight teams are your 2022 finalists, with only the order to change. But gee-whiz there are going to be some stiff teams to miss with potentially 12-13 wins next to their name! But, stranger things have happened, so while I'm sure the eight s set, why do I get the feeling there's another twist in this season?