<
>

The Deep Dive: The tweaks that give 'old' Cats their best (and last?) chance at a flag

Every Wednesday of the 2022 season, ESPN will combine with Champion Data to provide an in-depth analysis on a particular hot topic in the AFL.


In an era of equalisation, Geelong has time and again bucked the backwards to go forwards trend to remain a constant force in the AFL.

Each club faces the onerous task of a rebuild at some stage, whether that's forced upon them when bottoming out or accepting the reality that a list refresh is necessary, but some teams, like the Cats, prefer a simple facelift.

Since their most recent premiership in 2011 -- their third in one of the game's most dominant dynasties -- Geelong has had ample chances to do the honourable thing and reset itself via the draft, but there has always been a tight-gripped hand jamming the rapidly-closing premiership window to keep it even slightly ajar.

Mature-age recruiting and acing free agency has been their forte, and a method which has seen them miss only one finals series since that flag win over the Pies. Every other season they position themselves so that a Grand Final is a realistic chance. They're a club with belief. But they still haven't tasted the ultimate.

Is it a system that gives them false hope? You can be the judge. But if at first you don't succeed, try, try again, and then again, and maybe again. It's the Chris Scott way, and probably deserves more plaudits than it gets. Because every year they go again, the older this team gets, and the more history they need to defy. Ten points for persistence.

The Cats sit on top of the ladder for the first time since Round 1 with a 12-4 record and the best percentage in the league after their spirited comeback win over the reigning premiers in Round 17. Yet again, it looks like they're in a position to strike.

If they do reach the summit in 2022, they will clearly be the oldest team to do so in recent history. But the differences aren't drastic, and there is not one ideal list demographic that typifies a premiership team.

Against the Demons, the Cats had an average age of 28.1 years take the field which was by far the oldest team in the league, compared to Melbourne's 25.7 - which ironically was the average age of Geelong's entire senior list at the start of the year. Of the players used this season, Geelong has had an average age of 27.7 years old, which is nearly one year older on average than any other side.

The last 'oldest team in the competition' to win the flag was Sydney in 2012 with an average squad age of 23 years and 294 days, following the Cats in 2011 who had an average age of 24 years and zero days.

Average age of premiership squads at start of season

2011 - Geelong - 1st (oldest) - 24 years 0 days
2012 - Sydney - 1st - 23 years 294 days
2013 - Hawthorn - 4th - 23 years 323 days
2014 - Hawthorn - 6th - 23 years 277 days
2015 - Hawthorn - 4th - 23 years 356 days
2016 - Western Bulldogs - 13th - 23 years 120 days
2017 - Richmond - 6th - 23 years 263 days
2018 - West Coast - 13th - 23 years 201 days
2019 - Richmond - 10th - 23 years 267 days
2020 - Richmond - 10th - 23 years 292 days
2021 - Melbourne - 6th - 24 years 99 days

The Demons last season saluted with an even older squad -- 24 years and 99 days -- but they were only the sixth-oldest team in the league. It means teams young and old can win the premiership, but it can still prove beneficial to have experience on your side.

Since 2017, a team with older average age wins the game 60% of the time, a team that is at least one year older on average than their opponents wins 67% of the time, and a team that is two years older than their opposition wins 71% of the time.

So, there's method to Chris Scott's 'madness' of recruiting and entrusting established stars as opposed to injecting youth, excluding youngster Sam De Koning who has negated some of the best forwards in the competition this season and been an integral part of this well-oiled machine.

But, despite the many skeptics who each year claim the Cats are too old, we're not sure recent history of finals failures is going to repeat, because they have made some necessary tweaks which look to have them primed for an assault on the premiership.

In 2021, it was a case of new year, same old Geelong - recruiting superstar Jeremy Cameron and veterans Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins, proving home-and-away beasts again, in premiership contention, and a methodical game style that got exposed in September with an embarrassing preliminary final performance.

But the Cats are now a more proficient attack and are far better at protecting their defence - two major improvements.

Geelong are third for points for in 2022 (seventh last year), first for scores per inside 50 (11th) and third for points from turnovers (ninth).

It can be put down to the individual star power that resides inside 50 -- the exploits of Cameron, Tom Hawkins and Tyson Stengle often hard to handle and one of footy's most strenuous defensive assignments -- and a result of quickfire inside 50 supply via an uncontested marking and high-disposal game style that puts defences under pressure.

The added element? They're not being burnt (too badly) the other way.

The Cats are still relatively conservative, using the boundary coming out of defensive 50 more than 12 other sides and avoiding the corridor unless there's a clear option, but they have unrivalled efficiency which means they're always in games even when appearing out of sorts.

Geelong ranks fifth for opposition scores per inside 50, while they're the hardest team to transition the ball from defensive 50 to the forward 50 against, putting more emphasis on defending higher up the ground -- applying pressure on the ball carrier -- to protect the back six.

Tightening up around the contest to ease the burden on those in defensive 50 while maintaining a new-look attacking mindset was a necessary adjustment that has now given Chris Scott the perfect balance.

With wins against fellow top eight placeholders Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane, Richmond and Melbourne, and a largely non-existent injury list barring Tom Stewart's suspension, Geelong are primed and ready. Again. And with a chips-in squad that boast a core group with the likes of Rhys Stanley, Zach Tuohy, Higgins, Smith, Joel Selwood, Johnathon Ceglar, Mitch Duncan, Gary Rohan, Hawkins, Sam Menegola, Cameron Guthrie, Patrick Dangerfield, Luke Dahlhaus and Mark Blicavs, who will all be on the wrong side of 30 come September, is it finally do or die?

For Scott, the rebuild process has been a daunting prospect, but there isn't such thing as one blueprint for success, and it appears the Cats are finally getting things right.

But buyer beware, because this is a story we've told before.

Geelong in 2022 vs. 2021

Offensive rankings

Points for: 3rd (2022), 7th (2021)
Score per Inside 50: 1st, 11th
Points from turnovers: 3rd, 9th
Points from stoppages: 5th, 5th

Defensive rankings

Points against: 1st, 2nd
Opposition score per Inside 50: 5th, 10th
Points against from turnovers: 1st, 1st
Points against from stoppages: 5th, 6th