Our AFL experts tackle some of the burning questions ahead of the first week of the finals, including which team is under the most pressure to perform, if Collingwood can go all the way and more.
Which club has the most to lose in Week 1 of the finals?
Rohan Connolly: My video this week suggests Geelong is on a bit of hiding to nothing against the Pies, which is true, but even the Cats will have another crack at it should they stumble. That's not the case for Brisbane, which is staring down the barrel not only of instant elimination, but a 1-6 finals record over four seasons should it fall to Richmond. That would be despite a 60-23 record in home and away over the same period, or 14% versus 72%. And that would be a complete disaster.
Jake Michaels: It has to be the Lions. 2022 is the fourth straight season Chris Fagan's side has won at least 15 games, but they are yet to taste a Grand Final and only one preliminary final appearance. Brisbane's record in finals since 2019 is 1-5, and although they will host on Friday night, as far as the bookmakers are concerned, they are underdogs against the Tigers. When you mix in the Dayne Zorko drama of the past fortnight, the spotlight is well and truly on this club ahead of week one of finals, and another failure could lead to some radical changes.
Matt Walsh: Brisbane is in real danger of 'doing a Port' and underachieving to a point where they simply fall out of contention. Other teams get better, and they've had gilt-edged chances to win a flag in 2020 and 2021. With Marcus Adams now out as well, Brisbane's defensive struggles will again be enhanced, and going out in the first week of the finals would be a massive disappointment. Another year of 'failure' could also mean players look for greener pastures elsewhere...
Jarryd Barca: I would have to say it's Brisbane simply because of their past results at this stage of the year. If there is one team that deserves the pressure, it's them. I understand It's harsh given they haven't earned the double chance this season, but they still get to host at least one final at the now-fortress Gabba - a venue they have lost at just three times from their past 21 clashes there, or five from their past 33 - for the fourth consecutive year. If their September win-loss ratio in that same span worsens to 1-6 after this weekend, it must spur on significant change at that club.
Make a case for Collingwood going all the way in 2022
RC: The Magpies' structure is sound, and their sheer will to win and spirit as good as, if not arguably superior to their rivals. They led Geelong by five goals at three-quarter time of their only clash this season and lost by just 13 points. Victory on Saturday would then leave them just two more wins from a flag. And any side which can win 11 of 12 games decided by 11 points or less has to be fuelled by a lot more than luck. Maybe it's just fate, and the football gods saying it's time for another Magpie flag!
JM: Sorry, Pies fans, I just can't. Everything reverts to the mean eventually and I believe Collingwood is about to discover that, I believe. If even half of these games decided by nothing went the other way, the Pies would barely be a footnote on the season. Statistically, they have been smashed by the likes of Melbourne and Carlton, and although they won both games, I just cannot see it continuing when the pressure is ratcheted up in September. But if I'm wrong, and the Pies do go all the way, I'll happily buy a Collingwood membership for 2023.
MW: Their style of game suits finals. They're a high-pressure outfit with a strong structure, and when they get looks at goal, they nail their chances. The Pies scored the fourth fewest behinds in the home-and-away season, above only low-scorers and bottom six teams Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast, and their accuracy ranks fifth, and the third best of any of the eight clubs in finals. Jamie Elliott, Brody Mihocek, Jack Ginnivan, Ash Johnson, and even Mason Cox with a set shot from anywhere inside 40 metres, are all accurate kicks.
JB: It's hard to make a case considering they should be being beaten quite easily when you judge a game statistically, but you'd also be a naive fool to not at least give them a chance after a season chock-full of both denying and creating history. If they can keep their best 22 on the park each week -- a steady and consistent back six that has held up for most of the year, a midfield group desperate for more experience which a returning Taylor Adams can aid, and a dynamic forward line that needs to give Craig McRae better bang for buck -- then the way they play should hold them in good stead when the pressure intensifies in the next few weeks. The team thrives off pressure, it's what finals are about, and if you're asked which side is best suited at handling high-stakes, tense situations and your answer isn't Collingwood, well, you'd just be wrong.
Controversial topic time: Do you like the pre-finals bye, and what time should the GF start?
RC: Absolutely loathe the bye. It's damaged the integrity of the premiership in my view, penalising top four teams who win a qualifying final then end up playing just one game in 27-odd days by preliminary final time. Don't believe me? Well, why did 17 of 18 qualifying final winners go on to win prelims between 2007-15, but just four of 10 since? Geelong in 2016, Richmond in 2018 and Collingwood in 2019 all were jumped and beaten by sides who'd played through while they atrophied. As for Grand Final start time, 2.30pm, just like other day finals. Why mess with tradition?
JM: I'm with RoCo here. In addition to the fact the bye ruins the integrity of the game, as mentioned above, it absolutely kills the momentum of the season. We don't need one before finals, and we certainly don't need one before the Grand Final. And, Matt, please don't try and argue the bye gives players the opportunity to make a return from concussion. That's basically the same as saying let's have a four week bye so players who have torn a hamstring can make a return. Still don't know why we don't treat concussion like any other injury. As for the Grand Final, I'm a night guy, 7.10pm.
MW: I like the idea of a bye, and I never used to, but I'd have it before the Grand Final. The pre-finals bye has proven over time to not benefit teams that secure a double chance and win their first final, and while 'equalisation' is a good thing in other areas (draft, fixturing, etc.) I think just getting straight into the finals is the right move, and if anyone suffers a concussion, for instance, in the prelims, they're a chance to suit up while still adhering to health protocols. As for the Grand Final, I've always been a 2:30pm, red ball man.
JB: I don't mind the idea of a week off when you look back at the reason it was introduced - stopping finalists from all but tanking the final round of the season to rest its players, fundamentally ruining the integrity of the home-and-away season. But I think there's merit to better utilising it now by introducing a pre-Grand Final bye, especially when you consider the mandatory 12-day concussion protocols and the potential for a superstar player to miss out and cost his club a premiership. As for a time slot, 2:30pm on a Saturday afternoon is just perfect. I don't care about flashy lights and improved pregame or half time entertainment via a night or twilight slot, just give me two and a half hours of bruising footy with the sun beaming down on the 'G.
The Grand Final parade will be on the Yarra River this year. What's another way to spice it up in coming years?
RC: Fancy dress? Combine it with the Birdman Rally? Each team announcing their grand final line-up only when the players are rolled out on the boats? Come on guys, you know I'm strictly a forget about the sizzle, it's all about the sausage type! Why are we changing it anyway? Are cars and roads too old hat now, like a day Grand Final? In my day .... etc, etc
JM: We've done roads, now water, why not take it to the skies!? Imagine that. Seriously, can't we just leave some things as they are. After a few COVID-19 interrupted years, the Grand Final parade is back in Melbourne, yet we're already changing it. Where's that shaking my head emoji...
MW: Call me a grump, but I've never been swept up in the parade hype, even as a kid. The players hate it, coaches hate it, journos aren't getting much out of it - why not scrap it, and have open training sessions with autograph and photo opportunities afterwards. That's what kids want, not an impeded view of a player in sunnies looking bored on a sponsored ute.
JB: I'm not completely averse to the whole Yarra River idea but I thought riding on cars through the CBD worked just fine... anyways, if you want proper social distancing, how about colourful, extravagant planes and helicopters, that way you still keep the fans as far away from the players as possible... call me a sook, and I probably sound like I care more than I really do, but tell me again why we're fixing something that isn't broken? It's the kids that miss out here.